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Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
This is the wrong thread for that.
But the right spot for a ignore button !
Moving on..Potential for next friday IMO.
EC ens starting to shape something
I don't see it on EC?
It's on 18z GFS for perhaps 5-15cm for the Alps and some cold.
But that ridge makes things harder.
You can see the ridges are starting to push south for the spring.
EPS tries for the 14th-16th of Sept.
GFS says g’day.
Would be another big snow day for Tassie!
Thats Low isnt.
Big news on GFS 06Z tonight.
But, EC Ensembles ridging it tonight. Plot thickens.
hints of back to back throughout that week. statistically there will be a solid cold period in sept
I’d say unlikely
School holidays round 2 saviour? - fingers crossed this one comes through.
Yeah both EC and GFS pointing to something there.
Wishy washy on EC last night but looks like we’re owed something decent.
Stratobserve showing good wave action extending down to the surface (or to 500mb at the very least) over the next fortnight.
13-18th showing real potential on long range modeling IMO.
Cycle through the whole run and watch the dates in our region. Good negative height anom in the above-mentioned period:
Note another PV, heating/forcing event at the end of the run, commencing 17/18th.
GFS 00z underpinning 2 short waves in the 13-18th timeframe.
A little slider on 13/14th, then this guy on the 16th. Whilst EC tells GFS to 'tell ya story walking', with a ridge out - not surprising really as this is in tune with EC ensembles.
EC ensembles tonight not interested in much of the 13-18th time frame.
GFS Determs hell bent on 16th. Not much left for the 14th on determs, but def there on ensembles. I have a feeling GFS has the edge on EC Long Range at the moment.
so much for a la nina spring - forecast for next week is boring warm nothing weather.
and from what I can see on GFS - September is set to ridge out beyond the forecast period.
maybe a clipper or two.
Not hard to fathom with an AAO forecast like this:
This morning we have alignment on GFS and EC determs for the 13-14th as hinted in past runs.
Pineapple on the 27th ?
00z GFS has two troughs one on the 14th and one on the 17th, both probably mostly wet for the Alps. Little chance for proper snowfall.
CMC is trying for the 14th:
Plenny of room in EC's 00z run, esp considering it had nothing yesterday.
This week looks warm. Following has hope.
Though in between looks nasty.
GFS doing it's thing in a fortnight. On another note Its becoming a chore trying to login to the site. Many attempts before it logs in to the forum.
Haven't heard of the issue myself.
Try CTRL+R after log-in attempt.
Two hit wonder on 13/14th then 18/19th on EC ensembles.
Been there a few days now, starting to see some good signs for the later - also some pineapple risk.
13/14th. Plenty cold as suggested previously too.
AAO seems divided on direction beyond mid month.
Not a very hospitable polar vortex going forward, as far as GFS goes.
We’ve seen very little AAO influence in our region, this season IMO
Countless high-amplitude waves diving South through SW WA and re-emerging into the Pacific.
All good and well that we have had some good negative values this winter but without Kelvin/Rossby wave coordination we’ll see more of the same.
The positive thing is MJO pushes through our region in the next week. Hopefully shake things up a little.
Thanks that works like charm on firefox.
was going to ask what the bias was towards. clutching at perls in these dying days of season 2020
Canuck 00z seeing little something passing over next Monday. Is amplifying it more than the others atm..
Sadly, however, globally August was the 4th warmest surface temps on record (EC’s Copernicus) 1981-2010.
Warm and windy.
Yeah ensembles have swung last night.
You could just about put a fork in it, I reckon.
Rain on Saturday night/Sunday. Glimmer of hope ~20th but I won't be holding my breath.
So a forgettable season going out with a whimper ... Roll on next winter
Yeh, it's cooked.
If feel the spring weather thread is about to fire up.
Oh it is definitely spring.
Fingers crossed for a spring T-storms to make up for a shitty winter