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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Snow' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

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  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wally and POW_hungry like this.
  2. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Gold Ski Pass: Silver

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    sorry !
     
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  3. Donzah

    Donzah Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the right spot for a ignore button !

    Moving on..Potential for next friday IMO.
    EC ens starting to shape something
     
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  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    I don't see it on EC?


    It's on 18z GFS for perhaps 5-15cm for the Alps and some cold.
    But that ridge makes things harder.

    You can see the ridges are starting to push south for the spring.

    EPS tries for the 14th-16th of Sept.
     
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  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS says g’day.
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Would be another big snow day for Tassie!
     
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  7. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    937 Low.

    Thats Low isnt.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

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    ECMWF

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Big news on GFS 06Z tonight.
    But, EC Ensembles ridging it tonight. Plot thickens.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    hints of back to back throughout that week. statistically there will be a solid cold period in sept
     
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  11. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wowzers
    I’d say unlikely
     
  12. teleroo

    teleroo Ignored Member Ski Pass: Gold

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    School holidays round 2 saviour? - fingers crossed this one comes through.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah both EC and GFS pointing to something there.
    Wishy washy on EC last night but looks like we’re owed something decent.
     
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Stratobserve showing good wave action extending down to the surface (or to 500mb at the very least) over the next fortnight.
    13-18th showing real potential on long range modeling IMO.

    Cycle through the whole run and watch the dates in our region. Good negative height anom in the above-mentioned period:
    https://www.stratobserve.com/lonprs_ehfhgt_xsect

    Note another PV, heating/forcing event at the end of the run, commencing 17/18th.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 00z underpinning 2 short waves in the 13-18th timeframe.
    A little slider on 13/14th, then this guy on the 16th. Whilst EC tells GFS to 'tell ya story walking', with a ridge out - not surprising really as this is in tune with EC ensembles.
    [​IMG]
     
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  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensembles tonight not interested in much of the 13-18th time frame.

    GFS Determs hell bent on 16th. Not much left for the 14th on determs, but def there on ensembles. I have a feeling GFS has the edge on EC Long Range at the moment.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    so much for a la nina spring - forecast for next week is boring warm nothing weather.

    and from what I can see on GFS - September is set to ridge out beyond the forecast period.

    maybe a clipper or two.
     
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  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not hard to fathom with an AAO forecast like this:
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    This morning we have alignment on GFS and EC determs for the 13-14th as hinted in past runs.

    EC
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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    Pineapple on the 27th ?
     
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator

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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    00z GFS has two troughs one on the 14th and one on the 17th, both probably mostly wet for the Alps. Little chance for proper snowfall.

    CMC is trying for the 14th:
     
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  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Plenny of room in EC's 00z run, esp considering it had nothing yesterday.
    Trending positivity.
    [​IMG]
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06Z
     
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  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This week looks warm. Following has hope.

    Though in between looks nasty.
     
  27. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    2020-09-06 11_13_05-Meteologix.com - Profile 1 - Microsoft​ Edge.png 2020-09-06 11_18_39-Meteologix.com - Profile 1 - Microsoft​ Edge.png 2020-09-06 11_19_40-Meteologix.com - Profile 1 - Microsoft​ Edge.png

    GFS doing it's thing in a fortnight. On another note Its becoming a chore trying to login to the site. Many attempts before it logs in to the forum.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Haven't heard of the issue myself.
    What browser?
    Try CTRL+R after log-in attempt.
     
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  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Two hit wonder on 13/14th then 18/19th on EC ensembles.
    Been there a few days now, starting to see some good signs for the later - also some pineapple risk.

    13/14th. Plenty cold as suggested previously too.
     
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  30. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    AAO seems divided on direction beyond mid month.

    [​IMG]
     
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  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans not woke enough Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not a very hospitable polar vortex going forward, as far as GFS goes.
     
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  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    We’ve seen very little AAO influence in our region, this season IMO
    Countless high-amplitude waves diving South through SW WA and re-emerging into the Pacific.
    All good and well that we have had some good negative values this winter but without Kelvin/Rossby wave coordination we’ll see more of the same.

    The positive thing is MJO pushes through our region in the next week. Hopefully shake things up a little.
     
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  33. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Thanks that works like charm on firefox.
     
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  34. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    was going to ask what the bias was towards. clutching at perls in these dying days of season 2020
     
  35. stormkite2000

    stormkite2000 One of Us

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    Canuck 00z seeing little something passing over next Monday. Is amplifying it more than the others atm..

    .
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  38. Untele-whippet

    Untele-whippet beard stroker Ski Pass: Gold

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    Warm and windy.
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Old n' Crusty Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah ensembles have swung last night.
    You could just about put a fork in it, I reckon.

    Rain on Saturday night/Sunday. Glimmer of hope ~20th but I won't be holding my breath.
     
  40. Lady Penelope

    Lady Penelope One of some lot ... Ski Pass: Gold

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    So a forgettable season going out with a whimper ... Roll on next winter :)
     
  41. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Yeh, it's cooked.
    If feel the spring weather thread is about to fire up.
     
  42. Chowder11

    Chowder11 Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh it is definitely spring.
    Fingers crossed for a spring T-storms to make up for a shitty winter
     
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