Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

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Jellybeans

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GFS 18z looks like a dog's breaky.
In fact, I wouldn't even feed that shite to a dog TBH.

Stick to EC & The Candian ATM, IMO.
EC looking ok.
1629026439888.png
I mean it's better than the endless wind with no reward fronts atm.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

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The EC is still showing interest in a proper snow top up on 23/8/21.
It definitely needs a top up of fresh snow.
My old
friend in Myrtleford rang from Falls Creek yesterday to say that the snow cover is icy in the morning and slushy in the afternoon for both ski lift skiing and XC skating.
 
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Ramshead

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Hey speaking of me (see above tweet), I have a question. Have no doubt this has been discussed ad nauseum on this site but not sure where. Anyway I speak of the way it can rain, and often does rain, at Buller below zero, especially in westerlies. Today seems to be one such day going off cams and obs.

Why do I want to know? Well, some of you may know I am working part time at Weatherzone helping strengthen their news & communications side of the business even if I am a weather enthusiast only, i.e not a trained weather dude.

Anyway I was talking to one of the mets there today and he said, "Nah, no way it can rain below zero" and I went, "yeah, happens at Buller all the time" and he went, "nah" and i went, "Yeah, it's something to do with Buller having no mountains to its west so orographic cooling has no time to kick in" or some such. I really have no idea what I'm talking about on this. Help! And thank you
 

Claude Cat

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Hey speaking of me (see above tweet), I have a question. Have no doubt this has been discussed ad nauseum on this site but not sure where. Anyway I speak of the way it can rain, and often does rain, at Buller below zero, especially in westerlies. Today seems to be one such day going off cams and obs.

Why do I want to know? Well, some of you may know I am working part time at Weatherzone helping strengthen their news & communications side of the business even if I am a weather enthusiast only, i.e not a trained weather dude.

Anyway I was talking to one of the mets there today and he said, "Nah, no way it can rain below zero" and I went, "yeah, happens at Buller all the time" and he went, "nah" and i went, "Yeah, it's something to do with Buller having no mountains to its west so orographic cooling has no time to kick in" or some such. I really have no idea what I'm talking about on this. Help! And thank you
I've seen it rain at Buller at -3C in a westerly!
There's been some good posts on the topic in the past, let me see if I can find them.
 
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Claude Cat

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Whole thread about it here:


short summary

When air rises from 500m to 1800m in about 5km (and from 1000m to 1800m in only 2km), on a westerly at Buller, there is orographic lift, but it's too fast. There no time for the air to cool nor the moisture in that air to condense.

The long story see Sandy's post (#18)
 

POW Hungry

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Hey speaking of me (see above tweet), I have a question. Have no doubt this has been discussed ad nauseum on this site but not sure where. Anyway I speak of the way it can rain, and often does rain, at Buller below zero, especially in westerlies. Today seems to be one such day going off cams and obs.

Why do I want to know? Well, some of you may know I am working part time at Weatherzone helping strengthen their news & communications side of the business even if I am a weather enthusiast only, i.e not a trained weather dude.

Anyway I was talking to one of the mets there today and he said, "Nah, no way it can rain below zero" and I went, "yeah, happens at Buller all the time" and he went, "nah" and i went, "Yeah, it's something to do with Buller having no mountains to its west so orographic cooling has no time to kick in" or some such. I really have no idea what I'm talking about on this. Help! And thank you
I thought Andrew M did a nice job in explaining it to you the other day (via Twitter, I think it was).
 
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POW Hungry

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Some notes (from early-July) on Antarctic Sea Ice Extent:
Sea ice in the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica was well above the 1981 to 2010 average extent in June, rising above the ninetieth percentile near the end of the month. Areas north of Dronning Maud Land, Wilkes Land, and the Ross and Amundsen Seas were above average in extent, while regions on either side of the Antarctic Peninsula—the Bellingshausen Sea and the northwestern Weddell Sea—were below average.

The atmospheric circulation pattern for the month was characterized by a strong Amundsen Sea low pressure area (10 to 15 millibars lower than the average for the month) and a weak “wave-3 pattern” around the rest of the Southern Ocean. A wave-3 pattern consists of three high-pressure areas (in this case, the Weddell Sea, Indian Ocean, and southwest Pacific) interspersed with three low-pressure regions (the Amundsen Sea, the areas south of South Africa, and the area south of Australia).

And this from Zack Labe highlighting the above avg. Ant Sea Ice extent:
 
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BlueHue

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Ok so then it's decided. NSW lockdown to end on sat 4th of Sept. Someone send the memo to Glad!

Thanks for the update, even during lockdowns some of us still get excited about the winter weather to come and prospects for snow!
 

POW Hungry

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I guess the inherent risk with the above scenario in September is that in a -IOD world we're likely to see increased moisture out of the NW of the continent as well.

A little something to keep things in perspective.
 

BlueHue

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I guess the inherent risk with the above scenario in September is that in a -IOD world we're likely to see increased moisture out of the NW of the continent as well.

A little something to keep things in perspective.
I've been waiting for the rain! Although the rain has been quite frequent this winter its usually come either in borderline temps with wintry mix or relatively modest amounts.

Good rain with an active front means good snow on the back end so fingers crossed.
 

Young Angus

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So, had a trip planned to Dinner Plain going up tomorrow coming back Saturday, perfect forecast, regional VIC, was going to be so good...and then it was gone :(

What are we thinking for the start of September is that window around the 6th still looking like it could be a bingo? Providing regional can go up of course :/
 

POW Hungry

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So, had a trip planned to Dinner Plain going up tomorrow coming back Saturday, perfect forecast, regional VIC, was going to be so good...and then it was gone :(

What are we thinking for the start of September is that window around the 6th still looking like it could be a bingo? Providing regional can go up of course :/
That's still nearly 3 weeks away.
But yes, I am still into that 6-7 day window from ~6th.
 

rocketboy

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Has the TTS AWS been upgraded to a real time snow melt reader? Usually there is very little movement in the gauge - but this is now an entirely new installation since the last got blown away - and in the last 12 +hours the gauge has been steadily increasing since it turned to the good stuff.
 

POW Hungry

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Has the TTS AWS been upgraded to a real time snow melt reader? Usually there is very little movement in the gauge - but this is now an entirely new installation since the last got blown away - and in the last 12 +hours the gauge has been steadily increasing since it turned to the good stuff.
You on the red mate?
 

Winterwolf

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According to EC looks like a hair dryer of a northerly later next week and then rain, so not the best start to spring.
 

Young Angus

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Next Saturday it at least looks like it's getting colder again...seems like the moisture might beat the proper cold air though which is a shame...Bom still saying something about snow on the Saturday but it sounds like the brains trust here thinks it'll be wet wet wet

1630370448472.png
 

POW Hungry

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Next Saturday it at least looks like it's getting colder again...seems like the moisture might beat the proper cold air though which is a shame...Bom still saying something about snow on the Saturday but it sounds like the brains trust here thinks it'll be wet wet wet

1630370448472.png
There's snow junk in the trunk forsure, Saturday.
Problem is; it'll be a dusting, after the waterfalls.

Think 40-60mm followed by 3-5cm.
 

Young Angus

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Haha yeah that's not really much chop is it...any chance of a change in the weather by the end of the week to turn the air cold enough for the water works on Saturday or is that a done deal?
 

Winterwolf

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Jun 2, 2019
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Welcome to sandbox this little diddy (6/7th Sep), but EC 'aint into it.
Canuck:
1630409370153.png


GFS:
1630409473441.png
I'm still holding out hope of a Spring ski if the NSW regions (well, some of them and hopefully mine), get released at the end of next week, so anything that prolongs the season is still of interest. Hopefully this develops and we get a less warm and wet end to September than it has started.
 

Young Angus

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Now see the Bom have the snowflake symbol next to Saturday with the huge rainfall amounts...I feel like that's just making people excited for nothing....I guess they do say "r$#% heavy at times" :(

1630480398958.png
 
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