Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

SnowBound

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May 2000: “Check out this pre-season dump”

May/June 2022: “You call that a dump?”

Very keen to see how the Spencer’s Creek levels play out this season compared to 2000*

*im aware we’re still very early and anything can happen.
 

CarveMan

Tremendous Slouch
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2 May 2020
4C9EAFE1-3F1B-4FB7-9AD8-AD10BE0A4256.jpeg
E7CE2402-E741-4E2F-8D3C-D375AF854C41.jpeg

*Probs for bbq thread
Was better in person ;)

 

Raaatchi

First Runs
Oct 16, 2021
4
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18th June GFS 00z, indicating another COL as suggested this earlier today (above post):
1623044102955.png
Hi all, love reading the comments and the current systems are exciting. Question; this weather between 29th May through mid June is an amplification of the LWT with some warmer whether to follow from mid June. Can anyone hazard a guess as to when we could again expect a node of the LWT to again move in, allowing the low pressure systems further north to the mid latitudes like they are now?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Hi all, love reading the comments and the current systems are exciting. Question; this weather between 29th May through mid June is an amplification of the LWT with some warmer whether to follow from mid June. Can anyone hazard a guess as to when we could again expect a node of the LWT to again move in, allowing the low pressure systems further north to the mid latitudes like they are now?
Mid June is 2 weeks away. I haven’t seen anything to suggest ‘warmer weather’ but odds are on for a ridge of high pressure to establish itself over the Southern continent, around then. Keep in mind June is particularly synonymous with blocking highs, so the ridge could be there a few days, could be there a week or two.

The following LWT is probably due through the SE in the last 10 days of June IMO.
Light years away, and hardly worth looking into until the next system is cleared.
 
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Raaatchi

First Runs
Oct 16, 2021
4
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Mid June is 2 weeks away. I haven’t seen anything to suggest ‘warmer weather’ but odds are on for a ridge of high pressure to establish itself over the Southern continent, around then. Keep in mind June is particularly synonymous with blocking highs, so the ridge could be there a few days, could be there a week or two.

The following LWT is probably due through the SE in the last 10 days of June IMO.
Light years away, and hardly worth looking into until the next system is cleared.
Cheers. Good perspective
 

will it snow

Early Days
May 29, 2022
24
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Rewind 4 or so weeks and after a summer of “pineapple”s” and a warmer than average winter outlook where do we stand now ?
I like what I see now but if seasonal outlook is correct I foresee a lot of hearts may be broken
 
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lewis

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Rewind 4 or so weeks and after a summer of “pineapple”s” and a warmer than average winter outlook where do we stand now ?
I like what I see now but if seasonal outlook is correct I foresee a lot of hearts may be broken
Combination of IOD and La nina has resulted in close to the highest average depth of any combination though. What exactly was bad about the outlook?
 

Adaminaby Angler

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Maybe, just maybe, the BoM outlooks are not perfect?

Never blindly go with authority as opposed to making your own observations based on what is actually occurring, what has passed, etc. Common sense goes a long way. If the puzzle pieces don't fit…it's time to start asking questions.
 

Ijay

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I've been wondering…what if the current pattern becomes the norm and any subtropical high pressure stretch becomes an 'event'. Like what occurred with Sydney/eastern coastline and the neverending rain, with sunny days being an event.
A reasonable line of thought, though I would think unlikely. Fingers crossed.
 
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Pete Holden

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I wish. Minus severe floods.

On a side note, I'll be in TAS during on Tue so I'll be ground-truthing the current EC's 400 to 500m snowfall limit on the lower slopes of Kunanyi (below the road closure point).
Severe floods in an alpine context would mean the lifts would be buried in deep snow. They were designed to tower over an annual average 2 metres of snow. At what metres will the season be over for non operational lifts reason?

Also how much snow metres can snowgums withstand?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Mid June is 2 weeks away. I haven’t seen anything to suggest ‘warmer weather’ but odds are on for a ridge of high pressure to establish itself over the Southern continent, around then. Keep in mind June is particularly synonymous with blocking highs, so the ridge could be there a few days, could be there a week or two.

The following LWT is probably due through the SE in the last 10 days of June IMO.
Light years away, and hardly worth looking into until the next system is cleared.
Here's the next LWT via EC's ensembles product.
1654386007286.png


We can expect it to pass SE Aus Longitudes around 21-24th June IMO. There's some LR agreement a blocking high will establish itself in the Bight mid-June so there's abs no guarantee it'll offer much IMO.
 

robbo mcs

A Local
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Severe floods in an alpine context would mean the lifts would be buried in deep snow. They were designed to tower over an annual average 2 metres of snow. At what metres will the season be over for non operational lifts reason?

Also how much snow metres can snowgums withstand?
Snowgums it is more about ice. That really weighs them down. A couple of years ago, forget which, there was an event that really loaded up a lot of trees on the kosciuszko rd up to Perisher with massive amounts of ice. A large number of trees and major branches came down.
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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Severe floods in an alpine context would mean the lifts would be buried in deep snow. They were designed to tower over an annual average 2 metres of snow. At what metres will the season be over for non operational lifts reason?

Also how much snow metres can snowgums withstand?
Some ski seasons the snow gum on top of Mt .Stirling has been totally buried so it just appeared as a mound.
 

iagreewithhim

Blessed are the bignoses
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A very long way from everybody
I've seen groomers clearing snow from under the Cruiser chair, so it can be done.
Severe floods in an alpine context would mean the lifts would be buried in deep snow. They were designed to tower over an annual average 2 metres of snow. At what metres will the season be over for non operational lifts reason?

Also how much snow metres can snowgums withstand?
I've seen groomers clearing snow from under the Cruiser chair, so it can be done.
 

rocketboy

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Here's the next LWT via EC's ensembles product.
1654386007286.png


We can expect it to pass SE Aus Longitudes around 21-24th June IMO. There's some LR agreement a blocking high will establish itself in the Bight mid-June so there's abs no guarantee it'll offer much IMO.

with some rain ahead of that from the leftovers from the weak low off the west coast forming this week?

22061912_0412[1].gif


22061912_0412[1].gif
 
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D'Ariel

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Seeing as that 115mm was across at least 3 days, there was not a 25% chance of 115mm... That would require hitting the 25% amount for 3 days in a row which is about a 1% chance....
The forecast was 25% of a quantum each day for 7 consecutive days. The probability of a quantum of snow on day n does not bare upon the probability of snow on n+1.
 
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lewis

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The forecast was 25% of a quantum each day for 7 consecutive days. The probability of a quantum of snow on day n does not bare upon the probability of snow on n+1.
So on each day the probability of getting that amount of precipitation is 25%? So you have 7 events which require hitting a 25% probability to occur. So you have (0.25^7)*100 percent chance of all of those events coming off.

Also, (0.25^7)*100% != 25%
 

Spence

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I don't often come and play in this sub forum but I just read this descriptor of wind on this afternoons SMH page. I have never heard of wind described as 'torrential' before.
"The South Coast train line was affected by torrential winds on Monday, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing another severe weather warning as 130km/h winds lash parts of the state."
 

Wavey

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I don't often come and play in this sub forum but I just read this descriptor of wind on this afternoons SMH page. I have never heard of wind described as 'torrential' before.
"The South Coast train line was affected by torrential winds on Monday, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing another severe weather warning as 130km/h winds lash parts of the state."
Also can't see any indication that winds got up to 130km/h. The most torrential gust I've seen was 113km/h at Bellambi.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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With high and sustained precipitation rates, I was hoping out of this event to ground truth evaporative cooling effects.. particularly for my preferred habit of skating the XC trails at Falls. it's often marginal so knowing whether you can bank an extra hundred metres or three of freezing level makes a pretty big difference to intepreting a positive or negative outcome for the trails at 1500-1600m.

Perisher.png


I kept a log of forecast model temps, not from a single run but twice a day grabbing the latest set of numbers for the most current period in the model output.

I've then plotted that against BoM observed temps. For Perisher, I've also plotted it against rainfall rate, but unfortunately Falls and Buller (and Hotham) were not reporting precipitation through this weekend.

It's hard to interpret much at the peak of the event midnight Sunday with the airmass changing so quickly.

But the period from 0200-1400 Saturday is more relevant for what I was aiming to do. If evaporative cooling was not captured in the models, I would expect to see observed temp dip during the heavier precipitation, relative to model temp. I cannot see evidence of that here. Observed temps also don't track lower relative to models at Falls or Buller as the snow arrived and intensified during Sunday.

Clearly evaporative cooling associated with short sharp convective showers cannot be reflected in hourly timestep model output temperatures. But my amateur speculation is that evaporative cooling is these days captured through parameterisation in the models for these large-scale (temporal and spatial) events, so I will unfortunately not be banking on the freezing level and accumulation being any lower than the modelled level. Interested in what others make of this?

The dataset I ended up with is crude and not what I was hoping for, particularly with no precip data for Falls/Buller, but I hope you may still find these plots interesting.

What is clear is that EC does an impressive job of modelling temp in our mountains. ACCESS-C also good but of limited value with narrow time horizon. ACCESS-G and GFS not in the same league, presumably primarily due to poorly captured terrain (as well as being inferior more generally).

FallsCreek.png


Buller.png


EC model is from Jane's old site (effectively yr.no), from the mid-mountain forecast, with the following offsets to bring it line with BoM observation elevations:
  • Falls Creek: -0.7 (1650m forecast to 1750m obs)
  • Buller: -0.7 (1600m forecast to 1700m obs)
  • Perisher: +0.4 (1800m forecast to 1750m obs)
AXS-C has the following arbitrary (but fixed) offsets to bring it into best fit with observations:
  • Falls Creek: -2.2
  • Buller: -2.5
  • Perisher Valley: no offset
AXS-G has the following offsets calculated (for this specific time period) to bring it into best fit with the new Jane's weather forecast page:
  • Falls Creek: -3.4
  • Buller: -4.6
  • Perisher Valley: -3.4
GFS has the following offsets also calculated to bring it into best fit with the new Jane's weather forecast page:
  • Falls Creek: -3.5
  • Buller: -4.6
  • Perisher Valley: -3.5
Kudos to you for being guided by testing scientific theory.
Testing evap cooling in Aus is probably akin to finding a needle in a haystack. The variables are huge. Good on you having a stab! Sorry, but I am not really understanding your results because I can’t see your axis labels? Left is temp? Did you use wet bulb temps?
What is your secondary axis on your first chart, titled Perisher? Precip rate?
 
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Chionophile

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Kudos to you for being guided by testing scientific theory.
Testing evap cooling in Aus is probably akin to finding a needle in a haystack. The variables are huge. Good on you having a stab! Sorry, but I am not really understanding your results because I can’t see your axis labels? Left is temp? Did you use wet bulb temps?
What is your secondary axis on your first chart, titled Perisher? Precip rate?
I suspected it would be not easy and was not disappointed on that count. ;-)
Yes.. left axis is Temp (dry bulb) and right axis is Precipitation Rate (mm/hr).
What's your understanding of how well (if at all) evap cooling is built into models now?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I suspected it would be not easy and was not disappointed on that count. ;-)
Yes.. left axis is Temp (dry bulb) and right axis is Precipitation Rate (mm/hr).
What's your understanding of how well (if at all) evap cooling is built into models now?
Models will most certainly pick up on evap cooling but only really pertinent to broadscale events (generally overseas) or hi-res models in Australia (due to the small, distribution of the snow regions). i.e. these are mesoscale effects in Aus.

That said models do certainly note as a field of error.
 
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dmz

Puzzles solved here.
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There was a year some time back where we skied early July and it turned out the best week of the year because it basically stopped snowing after that. Virtually nothing for the rest of July or August. Surely after this system it cant possibly do the same thing and have virtually no snow for the rest of winter?
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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There was a year some time back where we skied early July and it turned out the best week of the year because it basically stopped snowing after that. Virtually nothing for the rest of July or August. Surely after this system it cant possibly do the same thing and have virtually no snow for the rest of winter?
The C drivers are very different to recent seasons/years.
It's very unlikely we'll see reduction of precip for 1-2 months IMO.
 

weathersourse

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Models showing a backend amplification with a tasman trough. Synoptics on most global models liking it atm.
Being a week out expect some model jumping around.



xx_model-en-304-0_modaus_2022060612_138_1536_496.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2022060612_132_1536_496.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modgbr_2022060612_132_1536_496.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modcan_2022060612_141_1536_496.png

Moisture and temp looked ok also on plots. Maybe a few flakes in it.
 

BlueHue

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Completely unfounded prediction as models evolve closer to day:

SW airstream cuts off into low just off South East Oz somewhere.

Initials low level snowfalls from SW become localised and heavy according to usual suspects with exposure to south and east with SISP increasing as the event unfolds.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Here's the next LWT via EC's ensembles product.
1654386007286.png


We can expect it to pass SE Aus Longitudes around 21-24th June IMO. There's some LR agreement a blocking high will establish itself in the Bight mid-June so there's abs no guarantee it'll offer much IMO.
I am expecting this LWT through around 23-27th now, here it is under SW WA.
Our next genuine source of snow depth gain.
1654643554561.png
 

Young Angus

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I am expecting this LWT through around 23-27th now, here it is under SW WA.
Our next genuine source of snow depth gain.
1654643554561.png
Watching for the next event...trying to get a trip in before school holidays start...can someone call Hughey and ask him to send it on around the 21st June please :)
 

Young Angus

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1654651612073.png


Frog forecasting for 21st and 22nd June...long range but is there anything suggesting this at the moment? Those numbers suggest something decent happening around then...this maybe from what you've just mentioned above?
 

lewis

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1654651612073.png


Frog forecasting for 21st and 22nd June...long range but is there anything suggesting this at the moment? Those numbers suggest something decent happening around then...this maybe from what you've just mentioned above?
Isn't exactly accurate with his long range forecasts I've found... Then when it comes to short range it's just the same as the GFS forecast pretty much.
 

Froff Life

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1654651612073.png


Frog forecasting for 21st and 22nd June...long range but is there anything suggesting this at the moment? Those numbers suggest something decent happening around then...this maybe from what you've just mentioned above?
Long way away, but there is something there on the GFS models. Time will tell
 

weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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Models showing a backend amplification with a tasman trough. Synoptics on most global models liking it atm.
Being a week out expect some model jumping around.



xx_model-en-304-0_modaus_2022060612_138_1536_496.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2022060612_132_1536_496.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modgbr_2022060612_132_1536_496.png
xx_model-en-304-0_modcan_2022060612_141_1536_496.png

Moisture and temp looked ok also on plots. Maybe a few flakes in it.
Tight tricky one. Access see's the 540 the 536 amplify, moisture is there with a tongue of dry air just trailing behind it.

Screenshot_20220608_135444.jpg

Screenshot_20220608_142916.jpg
 
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