Was better in person
Hi all, love reading the comments and the current systems are exciting. Question; this weather between 29th May through mid June is an amplification of the LWT with some warmer whether to follow from mid June. Can anyone hazard a guess as to when we could again expect a node of the LWT to again move in, allowing the low pressure systems further north to the mid latitudes like they are now?18th June GFS 00z, indicating another COL as suggested this earlier today (above post):
Mid June is 2 weeks away. I haven’t seen anything to suggest ‘warmer weather’ but odds are on for a ridge of high pressure to establish itself over the Southern continent, around then. Keep in mind June is particularly synonymous with blocking highs, so the ridge could be there a few days, could be there a week or two.
Even more impressive when you consider the last couple of years.Go you good thing.
Combination of IOD and La nina has resulted in close to the highest average depth of any combination though. What exactly was bad about the outlook?
A reasonable line of thought, though I would think unlikely. Fingers crossed.
Severe floods in an alpine context would mean the lifts would be buried in deep snow. They were designed to tower over an annual average 2 metres of snow. At what metres will the season be over for non operational lifts reason?
Here's the next LWT via EC's ensembles product.
Snowgums it is more about ice. That really weighs them down. A couple of years ago, forget which, there was an event that really loaded up a lot of trees on the kosciuszko rd up to Perisher with massive amounts of ice. A large number of trees and major branches came down.
Some ski seasons the snow gum on top of Mt .Stirling has been totally buried so it just appeared as a mound.
I've seen groomers clearing snow from under the Cruiser chair, so it can be done.
Here's the next LWT via EC's ensembles product.
We can expect it to pass SE Aus Longitudes around 21-24th June IMO. There's some LR agreement a blocking high will establish itself in the Bight mid-June so there's abs no guarantee it'll offer much IMO.
whoopie - our mob will be at ThredboFor those that like to get excited at 384 hours out ...
The forecast was 25% of a quantum each day for 7 consecutive days. The probability of a quantum of snow on day n does not bare upon the probability of snow on n+1.
So on each day the probability of getting that amount of precipitation is 25%? So you have 7 events which require hitting a 25% probability to occur. So you have (0.25^7)*100 percent chance of all of those events coming off.
Also can't see any indication that winds got up to 130km/h. The most torrential gust I've seen was 113km/h at Bellambi.
Kudos to you for being guided by testing scientific theory.With high and sustained precipitation rates, I was hoping out of this event to ground truth evaporative cooling effects.. particularly for my preferred habit of skating the XC trails at Falls. it's often marginal so knowing whether you can bank an extra hundred metres or three of freezing level makes a pretty big difference to intepreting a positive or negative outcome for the trails at 1500-1600m.
I kept a log of forecast model temps, not from a single run but twice a day grabbing the latest set of numbers for the most current period in the model output.
I've then plotted that against BoM observed temps. For Perisher, I've also plotted it against rainfall rate, but unfortunately Falls and Buller (and Hotham) were not reporting precipitation through this weekend.
It's hard to interpret much at the peak of the event midnight Sunday with the airmass changing so quickly.
But the period from 0200-1400 Saturday is more relevant for what I was aiming to do. If evaporative cooling was not captured in the models, I would expect to see observed temp dip during the heavier precipitation, relative to model temp. I cannot see evidence of that here. Observed temps also don't track lower relative to models at Falls or Buller as the snow arrived and intensified during Sunday.
Clearly evaporative cooling associated with short sharp convective showers cannot be reflected in hourly timestep model output temperatures. But my amateur speculation is that evaporative cooling is these days captured through parameterisation in the models for these large-scale (temporal and spatial) events, so I will unfortunately not be banking on the freezing level and accumulation being any lower than the modelled level. Interested in what others make of this?
The dataset I ended up with is crude and not what I was hoping for, particularly with no precip data for Falls/Buller, but I hope you may still find these plots interesting.
What is clear is that EC does an impressive job of modelling temp in our mountains. ACCESS-C also good but of limited value with narrow time horizon. ACCESS-G and GFS not in the same league, presumably primarily due to poorly captured terrain (as well as being inferior more generally).
EC model is from Jane's old site (effectively yr.no), from the mid-mountain forecast, with the following offsets to bring it line with BoM observation elevations:
AXS-C has the following arbitrary (but fixed) offsets to bring it into best fit with observations:
- Falls Creek: -0.7 (1650m forecast to 1750m obs)
- Buller: -0.7 (1600m forecast to 1700m obs)
- Perisher: +0.4 (1800m forecast to 1750m obs)
AXS-G has the following offsets calculated (for this specific time period) to bring it into best fit with the new Jane's weather forecast page:
- Falls Creek: -2.2
- Buller: -2.5
- Perisher Valley: no offset
GFS has the following offsets also calculated to bring it into best fit with the new Jane's weather forecast page:
- Falls Creek: -3.4
- Buller: -4.6
- Perisher Valley: -3.4
- Falls Creek: -3.5
- Buller: -4.6
- Perisher Valley: -3.5
A good start is the guide:So what are the numbers for good snowmaking? Anything to do with these?
I suspected it would be not easy and was not disappointed on that count. ;-)
Models will most certainly pick up on evap cooling but only really pertinent to broadscale events (generally overseas) or hi-res models in Australia (due to the small, distribution of the snow regions). i.e. these are mesoscale effects in Aus.
The C drivers are very different to recent seasons/years.
I am expecting this LWT through around 23-27th now, here it is under SW WA.Here's the next LWT via EC's ensembles product.
We can expect it to pass SE Aus Longitudes around 21-24th June IMO. There's some LR agreement a blocking high will establish itself in the Bight mid-June so there's abs no guarantee it'll offer much IMO.
Watching for the next event...trying to get a trip in before school holidays start...can someone call Hughey and ask him to send it on around the 21st June pleaseI am expecting this LWT through around 23-27th now, here it is under SW WA.
Our next genuine source of snow depth gain.
Isn't exactly accurate with his long range forecasts I've found... Then when it comes to short range it's just the same as the GFS forecast pretty much.
Frog forecasting for 21st and 22nd June...long range but is there anything suggesting this at the moment? Those numbers suggest something decent happening around then...this maybe from what you've just mentioned above?
Long way away, but there is something there on the GFS models. Time will tell
Frog forecasting for 21st and 22nd June...long range but is there anything suggesting this at the moment? Those numbers suggest something decent happening around then...this maybe from what you've just mentioned above?
Being that his forecasts are pulled directly from GFS, you’d expect there to be some correlation.
Tight tricky one. Access see's the 540 the 536 amplify, moisture is there with a tongue of dry air just trailing behind it.Models showing a backend amplification with a tasman trough. Synoptics on most global models liking it atm.
Being a week out expect some model jumping around.
Moisture and temp looked ok also on plots. Maybe a few flakes in it.
