Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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For those who like to bet on fools gold. Still fits with the LWT however.
028AAD63-440E-4826-9AC0-5897C86EED96.png
 
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lewis

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AAO forecast looks good. Will that have much of an effect on anything coming through on the 15thish?
 

weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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Screenshot_20220608_152745.jpg

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The Canuck brings the longwave around in the 20th time frame. Flattens in the GAB then the backend amplifys to what is on the plot. When and if the other ens over the next fortnight and all three EPS Cancunk GFS start agreeing until then it's just wait and see.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Whatever comes of that system it seems likely beforehand we'll see a couple of days of not so pretty weather for snow lovers. Definitely some warmer weather on the cards IMO in the lead up to the next decent LWT over the SE.
Based on? What are you looking at? It sounds like you're alluding to rain or hairdryer 850 temps.
Looking a Determs Long Range (beyond next week) doesn't offer remotely any indication of that.
 
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mick chopps

Pool Room
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Jun 22, 2006
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Based on? What are you looking at? It sounds like you're alluding to rain or hairdryer 850 temps.
Looking a Determs Long Range (beyond next week) doesn't offer remotely any indication of that.
The ghosts of washouts past, nothing more, nothing less.

I noted a ski touring guy I follow on the socials talking about seizing the opportunities whenever they come in Aus as you never know when it might be 80mm of rain the next week.. Which is of course an extreme view that rarely eventuates.
 

BlueHue

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Based on? What are you looking at? It sounds like you're alluding to rain or hairdryer 850 temps.
Looking a Determs Long Range (beyond next week) doesn't offer remotely any indication of that.
Yep just going off 850hpa >192. Yeh I know not deterministic long range but I don't have the access or time to do that so just quickly look across the basic models which all paint the same picture of 850hpa temps in the 4-8C for a day or two around Jun 17th-189th period and have done so each time I've looked for the last couple of days. If it was just one model popping it up now and then I'd not think anything of it.

Did not mention hair dryers or rain. Probably better phrased as warmer weather that puts an end to the current cold pattern rather than something unmentionable.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Yep just going off 850hpa >192. Yeh I know not deterministic long range but I don't have the access or time to do that so just quickly look across the basic models which all paint the same picture of 850hpa temps in the 4-8C for a day or two around Jun 17th-189th period and have done so each time I've looked for the last couple of days. If it was just one model popping it up now and then I'd not think anything of it.

Did not mention hair dryers or rain. Probably better phrased as warmer weather that puts an end to the current cold pattern rather than something unmentionable.
Cool, thanks. Just trying to keep it all in perspective and sort facts from the opinions.
At long range it looks pretty normal to me (within ~2C) on EC.
The below is highly reliant on the high amp system progged for SW WA. Big anom so much to resolve here IMO.
1654747312867.png
 
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Kindness

Hard Yards
Jun 10, 2021
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Please delete if not appropriate, just wondering what the road in to island bend is like at the moment…

Falcon ute, no 4wd/awd or traction control. Just hard to tell if it would be chains from the turnoff from kozzie/guthega road or not at the moment?

Appreciate the help of anyone is able.
 

skichic

Old n' Crusty
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May 26, 2003
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Please delete if not appropriate, just wondering what the road in to island bend is like at the moment…

Falcon ute, no 4wd/awd or traction control. Just hard to tell if it would be chains from the turnoff from kozzie/guthega road or not at the moment?

Appreciate the help of anyone is able.
Try asking in the camping thread.
 

weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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Screenshot_20220608_152745.jpg

Screenshot_20220609_124017.jpg





Screenshot_20220609_122020.jpg


The Canuck brings the longwave around in the 20th time frame. Flattens in the GAB then the backend amplifys to what is on the plot. When and if the other ens over the next fortnight and all three EPS Cancunk GFS start agreeing until then it's just wait and see.
Asper the usual connection with longwave timings GFS forecasts the rossbywave moving over the mainland in the said timeframe.



Screenshot_20220609_155853.jpg

Business as usual teleconection. MJO.
 
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weathersourse

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GFS 00z goes in hard with big cold surge in the roughish timeslots.
Screenshot_20220611_154947.jpg

Maybe a interesting week to watch leading in.


GFS 12z same deal the model held it's serve in it's run cycle.
Screenshot_20220612_080510.jpg

Will add the 18z to this when it arrives.

Added 18z complete cycle.

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gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_336_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Temperature_500.png






gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_336_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Relative_Humidity_700.png


gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_348_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Temperature_850_Metric.png
Hope it keeps holding up until the said time frame.




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,..................
CMC starting to tip it's hat into the ring with the anom as well atm.

Screenshot_20220612_112713.jpg

Leaves @ this until the lead in week.

SAM forecast
Screenshot_20220612_153504.jpg
 
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will it snow

Early Days
May 29, 2022
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GFS 12z same deal the model held it's serve in it's run cycle.
Screenshot_20220612_080510.jpg

Will add the 18z to this when it arrives.

Added 18z complete cycle.

Screenshot_20220612_094030.jpg



gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_336_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Temperature_500.png






gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_336_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Relative_Humidity_700.png


gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_348_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Temperature_850_Metric.png
Hope it keeps holding up until the said time frame.




gfs_2022-06-11-18Z_348_-24.956_112.754_-58.165_187.661_Precip_48_Metric.png



Screenshot_20220612_123156.jpg



,..................
CMC starting to tip it's hat into the ring with the anom as well atm.

Screenshot_20220612_112713.jpg

Leaves @ this until the lead in week.

SAM forecast
Screenshot_20220612_153504.jpg
I see a trend on the graph.. is it a good trend?
 

weathersourse

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EPS ens spaghetti displaying low pressure region over the se in the said time frames. Is a similar senario to what GFS has been thinking on these ens plots. That area's alignment is where the front and trough pass's over.

Still a few more runs are needed to fine tune the said date tho..


Screenshot_20220613_094636.jpg

Screenshot_20220613_094353.jpg


Screenshot_20220613_101232.jpg
 

weathersourse

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18z GFS showing two embedded centres on the run. In a nutshell it see's a complex low.
Screenshot_20220614_102413.jpg

On paper has the hallmark of a system that should come with intermittent blizzard warnings on this run as it passes
over the target area.
 

Snowmaker7

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Jul 25, 2013
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Just a general observation regarding the Perisher Valley AWS. The thermometer seems to be very influenced by sun heating on sunny days. Although it is 200m lower than Thredbo TS, it is still recording abnormally warm temperatures. ie. yesterday it recorded a top temperature 1.4C warmer than Cabramurra (which is 250m lower), and recorded a top temp 6.1C warmer than Thredbo TS. Comparisons to Mt Ginini also show pretty misleading max temps on sunny days. Is it the thermometer being affected, or is there some climatological explanation for the warmer local conditions?
 

BlueHue

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Just a general observation regarding the Perisher Valley AWS. The thermometer seems to be very influenced by sun heating on sunny days. Although it is 200m lower than Thredbo TS, it is still recording abnormally warm temperatures. ie. yesterday it recorded a top temperature 1.4C warmer than Cabramurra (which is 250m lower), and recorded a top temp 6.1C warmer than Thredbo TS. Comparisons to Mt Ginini also show pretty misleading max temps on sunny days. Is it the thermometer being affected, or is there some climatological explanation for the warmer local conditions?
I've always noticed and wondered whether it's not properly set up to reflect shade temp in a way that is not consistent with other weather stations. It's a valley I guess where as all of those other stations are summits but still seems a stretch to me.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
I think the mods will allow this?

Spotted this unusual cloud over Perisher this morning. Went a much longer distance than I could capture. Had some iridescence in it as well. No wind present at ground level when taken.

Any insights?

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Looks like a combo of Cirrus uncinus & Cirrus fibrates.
Given the neat linear arrangement it might have been spawned from a contrail, but more likely ex-frontal.
 
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robbo mcs

A Local
Ski Pass
Sep 1, 2008
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Just a general observation regarding the Perisher Valley AWS. The thermometer seems to be very influenced by sun heating on sunny days. Although it is 200m lower than Thredbo TS, it is still recording abnormally warm temperatures. ie. yesterday it recorded a top temperature 1.4C warmer than Cabramurra (which is 250m lower), and recorded a top temp 6.1C warmer than Thredbo TS. Comparisons to Mt Ginini also show pretty misleading max temps on sunny days. Is it the thermometer being affected, or is there some climatological explanation for the warmer local conditions?
The AWS is in a standard Srevenson screen, so should not be affected by radiant heat. However, when wind is low, Perisher valley gets quite dramatic inversion layers, which can produce weird readings. Not infrequent to see it warmer there than lower down the hill. Driving up in the morning, on still days you can go through multiple layers, cold, warm, cold warm etc. The temps recorded by the AWS correlate pretty well with Perishers own valley readings.
 
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