Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

teleroo

leaf blower aficionado
Ski Pass
Jun 19, 2019
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Just a general observation regarding the Perisher Valley AWS. The thermometer seems to be very influenced by sun heating on sunny days. Although it is 200m lower than Thredbo TS, it is still recording abnormally warm temperatures. ie. yesterday it recorded a top temperature 1.4C warmer than Cabramurra (which is 250m lower), and recorded a top temp 6.1C warmer than Thredbo TS. Comparisons to Mt Ginini also show pretty misleading max temps on sunny days. Is it the thermometer being affected, or is there some climatological explanation for the warmer local conditions?
Did seem blardy warm at Perisher yesterday. Nil breeze. Everyone was hot by the arvo. Gloves off on t bars etc. Cabramurra also more exposed in some ways, being out on a ridge. I think you statement about sunny days is the key in fact. Without a breeze, the sunshine was definitely heating the place up imo.
 

Swiss

One of Us
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Jun 29, 2015
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Did seem blardy warm at Perisher yesterday. Nil breeze. Everyone was hot by the arvo.
Agreed. Dash indicated it was -9.5 when we got to the car park in the morning, was returning mid-layers to the car by 11. Beautiful day to be out there though, queues or no.
 

Snowmaker7

One of Us
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Jul 25, 2013
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I'd forgive you if you thought these cams were from midday today! Pretty awesome. Taken 10pm:
Screenshot_20220614-215750_YouTube.jpg

Screenshot_20220614-215723_Chrome.jpg


Also some pretty interesting observations from Thredbo Village tonight. 7 degrees at 10pm, after being below zero early in the evening. Temperature rocketed while dew Point plummeted

Screenshot_20220614-220147_Chrome.jpg
 

weathersourse

Addicted
May 24, 2022
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Thinking myself Tuesday/ Wednesday maybe see anything from 35-70 cm for vic alps when that cold air moves over with a moisture plume in the band.

ecfull_2022-06-15-00Z_156_-2_82.286_-66_207.086_Rain-Snow_Radar_Metric.png




What do the gurus think on here?
 
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Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
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Jul 29, 2015
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Thinking myself Tuesday/ Wednesday maybe see anything from 35-70 cm for vic alps when that cold air moves over with a moisture plume in the band.

ecfull_2022-06-15-00Z_156_-2_82.286_-66_207.086_Rain-Snow_Radar_Metric.png




What do the gurus think on here?
BOM are not seeing much snow falling at Falls Creek next week.Give it the four day rule and see what the modelling looks like on Monday next week.I have skied at least seven days this month.If it doesn’t snow properly for a week or two ,Then
it means I'll get recovery time!.
 
Last edited:

weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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Bom are not seeing much snow falling at Falls Creek next week.Give it the four day rule and see what the modelling looks like on Monday next week.I have skied at least seven days this month.If it doesn’t snow properly for a week or two ,Then
it means I get recovery time!.
Seen enough myself so sticking to my guns, 4day rule is not in my makeup. Don't think you will get much recovery time imo. Thanks for your response MTXC.
 

Mister Tee on XC Skis

Not your average unconventional eccentric.
Ski Pass
Jul 29, 2015
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Melbourne, Lockdown-i-stan .
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Seen enough myself so sticking to my guns, 4day rule is not in my makeup. Don't think you will get much recovery time imo. Thanks for your response MTXC.
ECMWF are not frothing about a proper top up next week at Falls Creek either. I think the system in the queue , behind the one on 21/6/22 might have more in it but that is just a hunch and purely hopecasting backed up by zero science. I am just hoping for
some fresh snow for fresh tracks and nice turns.
Here is the BOM Met Eye modelling for snowfalls for Wed. June 22nd 2022.
Not a repeat of this early June's Snowmageddon by a long shot.
1655286709470.png

 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
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Jul 6, 2001
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Thinking myself Tuesday/ Wednesday maybe see anything from 35-70 cm for vic alps when that cold air moves over with a moisture plume in the band.

ecfull_2022-06-15-00Z_156_-2_82.286_-66_207.086_Rain-Snow_Radar_Metric.png




What do the gurus think on here?
I'm hedging my bets on this one for now. It certainly looks promising, but not as cold as the previous week (at this stage).
 

weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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Promising looking GFS 00z for the next 25th.


Screenshot_20220616_151549.jpg

Screenshot_20220616_160053.jpg

Added
21st 22nd moves over and a Tasman low lingers about.
Not see'in anything to change my thoughts about it.

Screenshot_20220616_154825.jpg

Screenshot_20220616_152247.jpg




Then a brief period of no so cold and then the next system rolls in.

Screenshot_20220616_152852.jpg


Pretty much what I would expect with the sam neg forecast over the said period.

Screenshot_20220616_154926.jpg

Added.
 

weathersourse

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May 24, 2022
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Screenshot_20220617_083512.jpg

Heights lowering upto qlds border thinks EPS ec on the plot.

Screenshot_20220617_082214.jpg

Big amon this on paper pushing low heights well north.

Troughs are cool colours, Ridging is warm colours on the ens plots.
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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May 28, 2000
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We're coming into a lower range of strat circulation, which has a teleconnection with the neg AAO signal.
Hugging the lower end of the scale is good for merional flow (large peaks/troughs of the LW pattern).

Beats the hell out of a humming strat vortex, usually associated with a El Nin set-up.

EC ENS outlook:
1655692165143.png
 

skichic

Old n' Crusty
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May 26, 2003
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How’s the weather looking for the NSW resorts this weekend? From my untrained eye, could be marginal and windy?
 

Ramshead

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 5, 2006
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Sydney
I'm seeing a fair bit of model alignment for a decent surge of Antarctic air around July 1-3 or thereabouts. Looks to me like it will either be a significant SE Aus or NZ system depending where it peaks, but as ever, probs not both. Meanwhile member 29 on Ensembles is up to his/her usual bearish predicts. Not the worst on the list above, but in the bottom decile or so. Dude hates snow. Dude hates his/her life. Dude is 43 and still living at home with parents on cup-a-soup and Maggi two minute noodles
 
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