Did seem blardy warm at Perisher yesterday. Nil breeze. Everyone was hot by the arvo. Gloves off on t bars etc. Cabramurra also more exposed in some ways, being out on a ridge. I think you statement about sunny days is the key in fact. Without a breeze, the sunshine was definitely heating the place up imo.
Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum
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Agreed. Dash indicated it was -9.5 when we got to the car park in the morning, was returning mid-layers to the car by 11. Beautiful day to be out there though, queues or no.
I'd forgive you if you thought these cams were from midday today! Pretty awesome. Taken 10pm:
Also some pretty interesting observations from Thredbo Village tonight. 7 degrees at 10pm, after being below zero early in the evening. Temperature rocketed while dew Point plummeted
The Antarctic is getting pretty loose.
We also have the lowest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent on record. This signal won't help.
Thinking myself Tuesday/ Wednesday maybe see anything from 35-70 cm for vic alps when that cold air moves over with a moisture plume in the band.
What do the gurus think on here?
BOM are not seeing much snow falling at Falls Creek next week.Give it the four day rule and see what the modelling looks like on Monday next week.I have skied at least seven days this month.If it doesn’t snow properly for a week or two ,ThenThinking myself Tuesday/ Wednesday maybe see anything from 35-70 cm for vic alps when that cold air moves over with a moisture plume in the band.
What do the gurus think on here?
it means I'll get recovery time!.Last edited:
Seen enough myself so sticking to my guns, 4day rule is not in my makeup. Don't think you will get much recovery time imo. Thanks for your response MTXC.
ECMWF are not frothing about a proper top up next week at Falls Creek either. I think the system in the queue , behind the one on 21/6/22 might have more in it but that is just a hunch and purely hopecasting backed up by zero science. I am just hoping for
some fresh snow for fresh tracks and nice turns.
Here is the BOM Met Eye modelling for snowfalls for Wed. June 22nd 2022.
Not a repeat of this early June's Snowmageddon by a long shot.
Snow Season Outlook - 2022
Australia just had a sensational start to the 2022 snow season and there is potential for more above-average snowfall in the coming months.
www.weatherzone.com.au
I'm hedging my bets on this one for now. It certainly looks promising, but not as cold as the previous week (at this stage).Thinking myself Tuesday/ Wednesday maybe see anything from 35-70 cm for vic alps when that cold air moves over with a moisture plume in the band.
What do the gurus think on here?
It can be comfortably less cold than last week and still plenty cold enough.
One thing I noticed of late is models don't seen to be resolving 850 temps all that well up until the last 72 hrs. I expecting those to marry up into negs in realtime in the isobars.
Less cold generally delivers more moisture, so there is that.
Promising looking GFS 00z for the next 25th.
Added
21st 22nd moves over and a Tasman low lingers about.
Not see'in anything to change my thoughts about it.
Then a brief period of no so cold and then the next system rolls in.
Pretty much what I would expect with the sam neg forecast over the said period.
Added.
Heights lowering upto qlds border thinks EPS ec on the plot.
Big amon this on paper pushing low heights well north.
Troughs are cool colours, Ridging is warm colours on the ens plots.
ECMWF this morning have a more modest estimate of snow falling next Friday at Falls Creek based on today's modelling. It will leap about as per normal until about Tuesday next week.
First fortnight of July shows RW promise (NOAA). The ridge over the Antarctic cont (South of Aus) has the potential to disrupt the polar jet, pushing frontal patterns North.
EC shows some interest in this set up.
EC showing more interest in/around mid-July for the Bight region.
500mb Anom EC ENS:
MSLP Anom EC ENS
GFS 12z for 28th goes pretty hard.
One run though.
EC ensembles vaguely interested.
day tripping the 1stGFS 12z for 28th goes pretty hard.
One run though.
EC ensembles vaguely interested.
invested
c'mon
I was just looking at the Antarctic 2m temp anoms and with the strong -AAO, I'd hazard a guess that there would also be some pretty wild positive temps in Antarctica, in contrast to the meridonal delivery of warm air across the cont.
I see Vostok got to -69.5C overnight.
Temps inbound from the Weddell Iceshelf are cooking.
And this is where that warm airmass has originated from according to GFS HYSPLIT backwards trajectory:
Sneaky little one. Rossby is in da House
Stacked like a layer cake. Would be nice if she eventuates.
That 2nd week in July may we'll be the one that marrys up with a decent system. For that month.
#6,821 post.
Agreed, there's a couple of pieces aligning around then, albeit with the obvious level of uncertainty.That 2nd week in July may we'll be the one that marrys up with a decent system. For that month.
EC Ensembles 500mb:
We're coming into a lower range of strat circulation, which has a teleconnection with the neg AAO signal.
Hugging the lower end of the scale is good for merional flow (large peaks/troughs of the LW pattern).
Beats the hell out of a humming strat vortex, usually associated with a El Nin set-up.
EC ENS outlook:
ECMWF are seeing something of interest on 29/6/22.Sneaky little one. Rossby is in da House
GFS 12z for 28th goes pretty hard.
One run though.
Be a school holidays saviour something like that. Be needed by then.
Needed now. Perisher needs a major reset. Apparently the other place is excellent below 1700m and all the way down to the river. The irony of too much altitude.
Met eye. BOM .
27.6.22
0700
It looks like the best of the predicted VIC . snow falls in the coming period.
Sunday into Monday looks like half decent on the GFS, followed by some Highs hopefully clearing the weather for early-mid next week
Met eye. BOM .
27.6.22
0700
It looks like the best of the predicted VIC . snow falls in the coming period.I'll have what GFS is having for July 1 with extra mayo thanks
I have been saying Lake Mtn and Baw Baw need new snow and will get a top up around July first.Now we watch and wait.I'll have what GFS is having for July 1 with extra mayo thanks
EC Ensembles are showing interest in 1-4 July but nothing worth getting exited over atm.
GFS determs this morning... shame there's no support anywhere else.
Yep, sure is an eyebrow raiser, but as you say EC or CMC showing nothing like this pattern atm
I'm seeing a fair bit of model alignment for a decent surge of Antarctic air around July 1-3 or thereabouts. Looks to me like it will either be a significant SE Aus or NZ system depending where it peaks, but as ever, probs not both. Meanwhile member 29 on Ensembles is up to his/her usual bearish predicts. Not the worst on the list above, but in the bottom decile or so. Dude hates snow. Dude hates his/her life. Dude is 43 and still living at home with parents on cup-a-soup and Maggi two minute noodles
