Ensembles have a positively tilted set-up circa last few days of the month. Ridge thereafter. This coincides with a brief venture into positive territory for SAM. Looks unfavorable IMO.
Those ensemble members are outliers at best.
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Those ensemble members are outliers at best.
ERA Interim had this on Tuesdays run. Updates tomorrow.
EC see' what is the usual you would expect in June July.
Dryest months climo wise.
Lower belt systems and inland upper troughs that can't be resolved @ this range can bust it's current thinking as always.
UK MET for next Wednesday with a clip dog. Positive AAO/SAM suggest to me that the Ridge will dominate. EC Ens also backs a fading LWT.
EC & GFS looking quite similar at long range.
It's a 5-15cm for me ATM.The luxury of having an early 70-100cm base up high at the big 4 (FC, Hoth,Thred,P) takes so much stress out of the leadup to these systems! For the next few weeks, if they clip, they clip
Another little piece in that puzzle atm with that 2nd week in July post #6,821 The sam is being forecast to dipping in that period on current GFS modeling.By then it maybe much more in the neg side of the plot on the plot.That 2nd week in July may we'll be the one that marrys up with a decent system. For that month.
#6,821 post.
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I agree but we need a proper top up. The Southern VIC. ski centres at BB, LM et al are needing a proper dump ASAP.
Mt. Buffalo is looking a bit sad too.
Looks a windy pressure gradient west of Tassie, strong cold southerly wind there on that plot.Might be something?
Well, it is an overly meridional set-up shaking hands with the Positive AAO/SAM. Not sure....
GFS (06z) has taken on some alignment here, so it's starting to look a little interesting for next Wednesday, now.
I'll be critical and suggest the Tassie shadow will prove a nuisance for the mainland alpine.
It's a start....
if it's cold snow - all the better. but alas probably another damp squib with some mash on top.
That MJO signal in July is looking pretty strong. Might be a mid July second act for season 22.
Hopecast for you MTXC.
GFS with a low running down the coast with a tasty left hook.
Would be a lot in this should it verify as shown on paper.
In a nutshell a deepening/ strengthening ecl not a bombing
ecl as many get confused with the definition. But tasty none the less. Climo wise it's in the right time of year.
Bom snapshot text above.
That progged outcome would be a disaster for the resorts. Def not wanting that SPCZ waterslide anywhere near the resorts IMO.
Glad to see EC's not interested in it (yet).
Yeah, running that WV Moisture loop Andrew miskelly posted on Twitter the other day showed that we've dodged a few of these recently thanks to the Polar frontal pattern swiping them away.
I do like the node South of SW WA at the very end of the EC run.
That puts it on target for SE of the Cont around the 10th-14th. So far away though. Showing up on Ensembles but EC ENS seems to think it'll fade.
10th- 15th will see some action imo.
6th setup looks ok on paper atm
for snow showers.
.............,....
And the 10th+ maybe pumped.
Just for viewing not written in stone.
Maybe also a decent period for some to paddle out along the coast.
A east shift unfortunately with the low offshore on this plot.
Fanculo emoiji insert?6th setup looks ok on paper atm
for snow showers.
.............,....
And the 10th+ maybe pumped.
Just for viewing not written in stone.
The period from the 10th has looked encouraging for a few days now.
It's ensembles for you.
Shading indicates some agreement for a negative anomaly in the region. Given the lead time, it's an indicative start.
GP Height lines won't start to show depth until more agreement.
Canuck sniffing the easterly dip and the low forming.
Discussion earlier.
Please no. Does it even originate from a cold pool being cut off?
High pressure is the mtns friend in this instance!
Just based off the GFS run at the time of the update (06Z) which has a small area in NSW with roughly those values accumulating.Mountain watch seems to think there's decent snow in it for some reason
Still early as to where the model ecl forms along the trough- cold front up north and it's track. A little early with this atm
needs another week at least for confidence in it's tracking and strength. No point crying wolf @ this point of time.
My self I think a cold core ecl positioned as displayed on this plot = low pressure wrapped in moisture with potential for lots of snow. Be a event for sure along the eastern seaboard.
If this is to verify.
MW are way off with their forecasts at the best of times...Mountain watch seems to think there's decent snow in it for some reason
That's the sound of a one-eyed GFS forecaster. Someone needs to get out more.
GFS:
To be clear, I don't see any good in the above. BUT with so much divergence in the models I am not sure why you'd be calling it ski season Armageddon, if you've got any meteo experience.
Something to watch for sure, but plenty of room to deepen offshore and up North, as EC guidance suggests.
EC:
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Pow is longer in the tooth than me I think, so yeah many more years of experience with snow setups altho I don't always agree with everything he says I do with most of it most of the times.
The very fabric of our community.
No one has to agree, but constructive, informative discussion with a flair of PoV is what keeps things interesting around 'ere.
I am all ears where upper levels intersect with moisture feeds, I am keenly watching/learning this one.
A couple of the canucks ens members did fall inline with the american model with the timeframe. 5 ,7,15 Just some food for thoughts.
I want to accept responsibility for this one. I’m driving down from Brisbane on the weekend in a car with a leaky roof, so it only makes sense that a rain system would chase me the whole way.
Latest GFS is still messy but a lot less awful - looking more like r**n followed by gradually lowering heavy wet snow. Might be not too bad higher up, but I imagine the bottom half of Thredders will be a mud bowl.
The 18Z GFS had a solid 3-4 days of above freezing temps and precipitation at 1700-1800m so anything is better than that!
