Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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I'm seeing a fair bit of model alignment for a decent surge of Antarctic air around July 1-3 or thereabouts. Looks to me like it will either be a significant SE Aus or NS system depending where it peaks, but as ever, probs not both. Meanwhile member 29 on Ensembles is up to his/her usual bearish predicts. Not the worst on the list above, but in the bottom decile or so. Dude hates snow. Dude hates his/her life. Dude is 43 and still living at home with parents on cup-a-soup and Maggi two minute noodles
Ensembles have a positively tilted set-up circa last few days of the month. Ridge thereafter. This coincides with a brief venture into positive territory for SAM. Looks unfavorable IMO.
Those ensemble members are outliers at best.
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weathersourse

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Inline with post above #6818

That 2nd week in July may we'll be the one that marrys up with a decent system. For that month.
#6,821 post.
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Another little piece in that puzzle atm with that 2nd week in July post #6,821 The sam is being forecast to dipping in that period on current GFS modeling.By then it maybe much more in the neg side of the plot on the plot.



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Mister Tee on XC Skis

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The luxury of having an early 70-100cm base up high at the big 4 (FC, Hoth,Thred,P) takes so much stress out of the leadup to these systems! For the next few weeks, if they clip, they clip
I agree but we need a proper top up. The Southern VIC. ski centres at BB, LM et al are needing a proper dump ASAP.
Mt. Buffalo is looking a bit sad too.
 
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weathersourse

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Give us a hopecast at very least :-(
Hopecast for you MTXC.


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GFS with a low running down the coast with a tasty left hook.
Would be a lot in this should it verify as shown on paper.

In a nutshell a deepening/ strengthening ecl not a bombing
ecl as many get confused with the definition. But tasty none the less. Climo wise it's in the right time of year.


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Bom snapshot text above.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Yeah, running that WV Moisture loop Andrew miskelly posted on Twitter the other day showed that we've dodged a few of these recently thanks to the Polar frontal pattern swiping them away.

I do like the node South of SW WA at the very end of the EC run.
That puts it on target for SE of the Cont around the 10th-14th. So far away though. Showing up on Ensembles but EC ENS seems to think it'll fade.
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Star_Hawk

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A 'good night Irene system' coming soon , accordingly to a forecaster :
'Not so good news is that on the 2nd we will see showers developing and continuing on the 3rd before increasing to heavy rain on the 4th which will damage the snow cover.'
The greatest start in decades was short lived unfortunately.......
Mountain watch seems to think there's decent snow in it for some reason

MTN watch.PNG
 

weathersourse

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Still early as to where the model ecl forms along the trough- cold front up north and it's track. A little early with this atm
needs another week at least for confidence in it's tracking and strength. No point crying wolf @ this point of time.


Screenshot_20220627_104240.jpg

My self I think a cold core ecl positioned as displayed on this plot = low pressure wrapped in moisture with potential for lots of snow. Be a event for sure along the eastern seaboard.
If this is to verify.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
A 'good night Irene system' coming soon , accordingly to a forecaster :
'Not so good news is that on the 2nd we will see showers developing and continuing on the 3rd before increasing to heavy rain on the 4th which will damage the snow cover.'
The greatest start in decades was short lived unfortunately.......
That's the sound of a one-eyed GFS forecaster. Someone needs to get out more.
GFS:
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To be clear, I don't see any good in the above. BUT with so much divergence in the models I am not sure why you'd be calling it ski season Armageddon, if you've got any meteo experience.
Something to watch for sure, but plenty of room to deepen offshore and up North, as EC guidance suggests.

EC:
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
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Pow is longer in the tooth than me I think, so yeah many more years of experience with snow setups altho I don't always agree with everything he says I do with most of it most of the times.
The very fabric of our community.
No one has to agree, but constructive, informative discussion with a flair of PoV is what keeps things interesting around 'ere.
I am all ears where upper levels intersect with moisture feeds, I am keenly watching/learning this one.
 

AnnerleyX1

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I want to accept responsibility for this one. I’m driving down from Brisbane on the weekend in a car with a leaky roof, so it only makes sense that a rain system would chase me the whole way.

Latest GFS is still messy but a lot less awful - looking more like r**n followed by gradually lowering heavy wet snow. Might be not too bad higher up, but I imagine the bottom half of Thredders will be a mud bowl.

The 18Z GFS had a solid 3-4 days of above freezing temps and precipitation at 1700-1800m so anything is better than that!

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