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Predictions - 8-14th July 2022 Winter Returns
Stage one of this outlook is in the form of a South-Easter, up the Eastern track of Tasmania. This is not likely to bring much more than 5-10cm and won't be much benefit to Vic resorts IMO. EC Ensemble 500mb Anomaly The follow-up system has the potential for a cut off low to form over the...www.ski.com.au
EC ensembles ( Charlottes ) getting frisky with 16th- 18th on the 00Z run.
Bagus! Thank you.See thread
Predictions - 8-14th July 2022 Winter Returns
Stage one of this outlook is in the form of a South-Easter, up the Eastern track of Tasmania. This is not likely to bring much more than 5-10cm and won't be much benefit to Vic resorts IMO. EC Ensemble 500mb Anomaly The follow-up system has the potential for a cut off low to form over the...
keep talknEC ensembles ( Charlottes ) getting frisky with 16th- 18th on the 00Z run.
16-18th has vague glimpses of alignment. This morning EC likes this period, however GFS is now off the boil. A ways to go IMO.Last edited:Sorta weather, sorta snow conditions, will throw it in here and see if it survives moderation.
Question is: when does the great popsicle become nice to ski again? Seems like since the easterly-influenced mizzle froze and set the whole mountains rock hard a day or two back, and we now have several days ahead when the off-piste snowpack will remain frozen. Colder temps heading in later this week with only very light, if any, fresh snow seem unlikely to mitigate this situation. Norwesters on Monday ahead of the fresh due Tuesday may only blow the last remnants of softish sugar into the trees. Looking thru the weather lens, do we see a popsicle continuation until Tuesday?
I reckon its the right thread.
It’s going to be ice for most spots with any elevation untill the next decent snowfall. Here’s a look at Olympic this morning.
Looks ok but….. Its solid sheet ice. May melt for some aspects but that will refreeze late afternoon and overnight.
The ice fields on some aspects are extensive. 10cms of fresh snow would help but double that is needed. A lot of groomed runs in places around Eyre T Bar at PV (for example) last about 20 mins before turning to “gravel”. Its really groomed ice at the moment. (Expand the pic to show it up).
In and around trees its the same story. Ice is detaching in large masses, and for the most part, unmelted. In areas where there are trees under which you’d normally ski - its a no go zone.
Next decent snowfall can’t come quick enough. IMO…..
Sheet ice. My worst nightmare! Absolute confidence zapper for this old body. It has got 16 days to sort itself out and provide some decent freshies.I reckon its the right thread.
It’s going to be ice for most spots with any elevation untill the next decent snowfall. Here’s a look at Olympic this morning.
Looks ok but….. Its solid sheet ice. May melt for some aspects but that will refreeze late afternoon and overnight.
The ice fields on some aspects are extensive. 10cms of fresh snow would help but double that is needed. A lot of groomed runs in places around Eyre T Bar at PV (for example) last about 20 mins before turning to “gravel”. Its really groomed ice at the moment. (Expand the pic to show it up).
In and around trees its the same story. Ice is detaching in large masses, and for the most part, unmelted. In areas where there are trees under which you’d normally ski - its a no go zone.
Next decent snowfall can’t come quick enough. IMO…..
Outstanding response, for which I thank you. Can I BTW use these pics in a Weatherzone story I write tomorrow?I reckon its the right thread.
It’s going to be ice for most spots with any elevation untill the next decent snowfall. Here’s a look at Olympic this morning.
Looks ok but….. Its solid sheet ice. May melt for some aspects but that will refreeze late afternoon and overnight.
The ice fields on some aspects are extensive. 10cms of fresh snow would help but double that is needed. A lot of groomed runs in places around Eyre T Bar at PV (for example) last about 20 mins before turning to “gravel”. Its really groomed ice at the moment. (Expand the pic to show it up).
In and around trees its the same story. Ice is detaching in large masses, and for the most part, unmelted. In areas where there are trees under which you’d normally ski - its a no go zone.
Next decent snowfall can’t come quick enough. IMO…..
I avoid cliches like the plagueJust no ‘batches of snow’ Ramshead - unless snowflakes are size of scones?
00z GFS ens was looking ok with the 16- 19 period.
Amplification 537 thickness lowering height.
Just showing what its latest are see'in.
I’m fairly new to this forum so if this type of post isnt allowed here, mods feel free to remove it, but I’d appreciate if you guys could give me feedback on a snow forecasting website idea that I had in this thread: https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/snow-forecasters-comparison.91853/#post-5111782
Just trying to get as many opinions on it as possible before putting time and money into it.
Just jumping in here without catching up.
Gav Morris, the 9 Newcastle weather man, just mentioned in passing that "a lot of snow" is due around the end of July.
I'd like to see that, I'm booked from 31/7 to 9/9.Fingers crossed for early August after Pallidchook ripped me off last year
If it's not on EC Ensembles/Weeklies, I've got NFI what old mate is looking at, but mid July is still the gas ATM, IMO.
The current 8-12th window is the next hit, what I would call a residue LWT pattern. But then 16-18th July is looking the goods IMO.
Beyond that... It's a mainstream media joke.Maybe the late July is coming from this old chestnut. I am far from an expert but don't mind a bit of a look at some longer-term maps... I always gain confidence in seeing lots of winter activity sitting between South America and Africa in the Southern Hemisphere. It usually suggests there's a few possibilities of catching more than a Aussie bite clipper 3-4 weeks later. i.e Late July early August bring in the good stuff.
Forecast Maps
wxmaps.org
I have a 7 nights booked at the Bogong Rover Chalet on The Bogong High Plains from August 5th. Show me the big snow fall !Hopefully the start of a trend rather than just one run of something good.
Looks like a decent dump on the cards for Sunday into Monday/Tuesday?Why hello there
Nice thickness there, 522dm? Some low-level snow if it moves over alpine latitudes, with the moisture.
Yeah/nah?16th to 18th still looking the best outlook as far as EC Ensembles are concerned albeit a slightly wider spread than yesterday.
Gfs 12 and 18z still showing good snow this time next week
16th to 18th still looking the best outlook as far as EC Ensembles are concerned albeit a slightly wider spread than yesterday.
Just remember it’s a bottle of red for every 5cm as a bonus for being on the ground during a snow storm
Where's the alignment of models?
EC looks like a clipper. It's slipped off EC ensembles.
GFS is all over the shop.
Systems over a week out are gonna need 3-4 back-to-back runs on determs to be convincing.
That ensembles run says CLIPPER.
Well, EC threw a spanner in the works.
Big shift to align with GFS on the 18th this eve.
If it goes the dinstance it'll be a low-snow event.
Might be all good and well but EC Ensembles isn't buying into it, so it's gonna need a few runs yet:
EC deterministic is sending good vibes for the 17-20 July. Awaiting EC ensembles output.
GFS has a wobble now.
EC ensembles, I think there something there, but it’s vague and mostly divergent.
Needs a few B2B runs IMO.
A very ( Chains Required ) bullish run on EC.
YR about 50c for Hotham Sun/MonA very ( Chains Required ) bullish run on EC.
Nah. Gav's seriously a weather nerd. 9 Newcastle (aka NBN) don't have clowns or bimboes doing the weather like the capital city outfits. They take their farming/surfing audience very seriously, with an occasional nod to skiers and boarders when something's in the wind.
Mind you, I'd like to know what he's looking at too.
Looks to be fairly favourable to Victoria which is nice.A very ( Chains Required ) bullish run on EC.
Potentially a good top-up from Buller to Davies Plain (just across border from Kosi) - so lower/mid elevations might get a few cms.
