Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
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In analyzing this a little more closely, AXS C (VIC) has the temps closest to the mark with FL sitting around 1500-1550m (1300hrs today), but still, this is a little warmer than the highest Res model.
ASC-C 00z 850mb temps.
1658038394461.png



But even with the above, we have Perisher FL temps around 1700m also, so we're not even close here.
 
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snowgum

A Local
Ski Pass
May 4, 1999
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We drove down from Hotham to Bright late this afternoon.

Precip was fairly light over the summit and a tad drizzly on the screen even at ~ 1830m. Seemed strange it had been snowing on & off all day ‘down’ in the village.

Then just onto the Bright side of the Mount, the heavens opened - with heavy wetish snow down to a wintry mix at about 1100m.

By 1000m it was mostly all rain but there was a little snow slurry on the ground.

Car thermo said 3C at Harrietville - if you believe it?
Was reading 0C from 1700m up to 1830m & down to ~ 14/1500m. A very slight lapse rate!

From the snow line to Bright it poured - torrential. Lightening, the works, not fun.

It’s dry on the Hume to Melbourne. Thankfully! Hughey has had enough ‘fun’ today on Hotham and NE Vic Alps.

I note the folks remaining behind in the lodge looked pretty stoked to have a week with freshies!

The freezing nights ahead could see the fresh damp snow set cement. But the cover around the road level through Hotham Village was looking much healthier.
 

glengary

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 31, 2015
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A bit hard to see much else coming up in the near future.
Anybody see something I'm missing ?
 

BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
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Blocking highs holding back a tsunami a fronts ready to break over us sometime in the first half of August....... hopefully.

From NOAA for SAM. Maybe a weeeee chance 26th to 28th August.

1658184583290.png
 
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foxbat

Hard Yards
Jul 16, 2018
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Am down at PV for 1st week of august, is it too early to tell what weather will be like?…..GFS looking a bit wet for the 1st and 2nd?
 
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BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
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Yeah, I like that better than my idea. Do think 400km would be enough to get consistent winter snow for a good resort?
Nah, go all the way and centre it on 50S. It'd not just have enough for a good resort, the higher western parts would have snowfalls that compete with some big snow destinations elsewhere ro go with the craggy terrain and I'd guess you might even see a few glaciers pop up when all that rain gets converted to snow. You'd need to be at one skiing in treeless alpine during blizzards though! Spring up high would be long and magnificent. Vancouver Island might be a good comparison to what you might get in that instance.
 

glengary

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 31, 2015
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This a few days further out (right at the end of range), and seems to indicate something better. The high looks to bring a deeper cold fetch.
1658214017525.png
I think that one has gone now as well. Only some r.... here and there up until Aug. Hope something changes or the lower resorts are in for a quick finish
 

weathersourse

One of Us
May 24, 2022
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26th looks ok on ec except for 850 temp timing, nothing new there it's been playing catch-up with temp @ that height most of this season.
500mb


Screenshot_20220720_190404.jpg


700mb

Screenshot_20220720_190452.jpg

Screenshot_20220720_190549.jpg

850mb temp could be better.

Screenshot_20220720_190303.jpg

Good moisture it thinks we're it counts @700


GFS 850mb temp forecast below.


Screenshot_20220720_190651.jpg

Blend with the ec atm and it looks ok on paper. Time will tell.
 
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almontyrat

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 16, 2005
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Lachlan, Tasmania
Does anyone know where the Falls Creek official web site gets its forecasts from? They are predicting 5-10mm as snow on Monday the 25th but BOM says 50% chance of 1mm and only 25% chance of 4mm. Is that just Falls hope casting?
 
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