Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Gregah

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Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2016
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Yuk
1659346925691.png

1659346966501.png
Ignore those. Cherry pick this one...
1659347989541.png
 
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BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
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South of Cooma
Just want to re-iterate that I have days off and no kids. ie: wont happen. LOL
All my kids are coming down with *something* just in time for my two week break to start on Friday, so I may be at home next week with a house full of covid kids at this rate. The case for a strong system with good snow next week has been strengthened some what.
 

Captain_Tsunami

Hard Yards
Jun 15, 2018
50
161
83
All my kids are coming down with *something* just in time for my two week break to start on Friday, so I may be at home next week with a house full of covid kids at this rate. The case for a strong system with good snow next week has been strengthened some what.
You just need to hang out the washing to lock it in !!
 
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BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,947
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South of Cooma
Next thursday is looking mint on EC.

*its 240 hrs away.
Next Friday's GFS scenario 12Z would make for some unique skiing in Oz.

Downside is surface not cold at 2C at ~1500m but 500hpa of -28C with a solid fall of snow in the previous 24 hours continuing through the day and here's the kicker....light winds.

Not often in Oz you get to ski a substantial (precip says 20-30cm, maybe even 40cm) fall of snow in light winds with -28C uppers. I do recall Hotham in 2000 getting >50cm plus in 24 hrs one day when a fairly small very cold upper level trough drifted over with no wind - was a very isolated fall with most other resorts seeing much smaller totals.

* its > 240 hrs away and never going to happen (but if it does I'll be there)
 
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dmz

Puzzles solved here.
Ski Pass
Jun 25, 2001
9,524
10,318
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melbourne
Next Friday's GFS scenario 12Z would make for some unique skiing in Oz.

Downside is surface not cold at 2C at ~1500m but 500hpa of -28C with a solid fall of snow in the previous 24 hours continuing through the day and here's the kicker....light winds.

Not often in Oz you get to ski a substantial (precip says 20-30cm, maybe even 40cm) fall of snow in light winds with -28C uppers. I do recall Hotham in 2000 getting >50cm plus in 24 hrs one day when a fairly small very cold upper level trough drifted over with no wind - was a very isolated fall with most other resorts seeing much smaller totals.

* its > 240 hrs away and never going to happen (but if it does I'll be there)
Driving to Hotham Fri 12th Aug. Will not allow closure of Harrietville road!
 

dmz

Puzzles solved here.
Ski Pass
Jun 25, 2001
9,524
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563
melbourne
Is this significant and what will it bring weather wise in the medium term?

"Meteorologist says it is the first time since reliable weather records began that negative IOD events have occurred in back-to-back years"
 

Gregah

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2016
652
1,336
263
GFS 00z on this date window:
bushes-7d6b.gif


EC looking weird IMO.
When presented with information that doesn't fit my narrative I like to pretend I was never invested in the outcome and move on to new hope. I say change the date range!

1659604146072.png
 
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Jacko4650

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Ski Pass
May 15, 2014
4,132
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Unusual weather recently: Torrential rain, thunder and lightning the previous night has been replaced with sporadic hail here at Island Bend. It hailed at least 6 times last night and a few times this morning already. Is there a difference between hail and super-sized sago? Ground was temporarily turning white, but not for the right reason. Still way too warm here atm - 4.8 degrees
 
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Rat trap bindings

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2017
449
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could put it in observations, but probably get a wrist slap...
***NEWS FLASH** I observe the Corin Downhill FIS course survived, the crash fences are up, and training runs are underway, ready for the Stockyard Spur DH Cup tomorrow. @Ramshead is doing deep squats in Canberra now as favourite now that the Mawson mob have pulled the pin with better Tassie conditions they think....
(I seriously need some Thredbo therapy...)

corin.jpg
 
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POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
The re-analysis of a July that was:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 3.53.27 pm.png

Ridging through the Antarctic region 120-160°E killed off any regular polar circulation for the Aus/NZ region.

The region of divergence (in the Tasman/NZ/SPCZ) is highlighted in the VP200 plot - a broad region of upper-level (200mb) divergence (convergence at the surface) highlighting a series of Low Pressure systems impacting the Tasman, NZ and SW Pac.
In this plot you can see the tussle between the -IOD signal and 'diminishing' La Nina cycle with the SW & Western Pac taking the lion's share of activity.
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.06.28 pm.png


The correlation between the UL divergence in the NZ region via VP200 and the impact on the NZ snowpack:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.24.53 pm.png


Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.18.51 pm.png


The monthly wind vector at 1000mb (surface) says it all really. O Sou-Wester where art thou:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.31.53 pm.png
 

Adrenalin Junkie

Hard Yards
Jul 18, 2007
31
15
58
59
Tas
could put it in observations, but probably get a wrist slap...
***NEWS FLASH** I observe the Corin Downhill FIS course survived, the crash fences are up, and training runs are underway, ready for the Stockyard Spur DH Cup tomorrow. @Ramshead is doing deep squats in Canberra now as favourite now that the Mawson mob have pulled the pin with better Tassie conditions they think....
(I seriously need some Thredbo therapy...)

corin.jpg
Nothing wrong with the Mawson mob. Current conditions at Hotham remind me of a misspent youth at Mawson. Nothing like pouring a couple of cups of water out of your boots at the end of the day.
 
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StashyMcStash

One of Us
Jun 16, 2021
427
630
263
The re-analysis of a July that was:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 3.53.27 pm.png

Ridging through the Antarctic region 120-160°E killed off any regular polar circulation for the Aus/NZ region.

The region of divergence (in the Tasman/NZ/SPCZ) is highlighted in the VP200 plot - a broad region of upper-level (200mb) divergence (convergence at the surface) highlighting a series of Low Pressure systems impacting the Tasman, NZ and SW Pac.
In this plot you can see the tussle between the -IOD signal and 'diminishing' La Nina cycle with the SW & Western Pac taking the lion's share of activity.
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.06.28 pm.png


The correlation between the UL divergence in the NZ region via VP200 and the impact on the NZ snowpack:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.24.53 pm.png


Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.18.51 pm.png


The monthly wind vector at 1000mb (surface) says it all really. O Sou-Wester where art thou:
Screen Shot 2022-08-05 at 4.31.53 pm.png

Awesome to read. Is this set up likely to continue this month? I have a week of annual leave at the end of the month. Considering boosting to NZ
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
45,055
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
Awesome to read. Is this set up likely to continue this month? I have a week of annual leave at the end of the month. Considering boosting to NZ
Hard to say. We're in some uncharted territory, climatically speaking IMO.
Extended range/Climate models suggest NZ might be okay, but I am pessimistic in the outlook with some drivers suggesting that perhaps Australia & NZ have hit peak snow depth this season, I do hope not though.
 
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StashyMcStash

One of Us
Jun 16, 2021
427
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Hard to say. We're in some unchartered territory, climatically speaking IMO.
Extended range/Climate models suggest NZ might be okay, but I am pessimistic in the outlook with some drivers suggesting that perhaps Australia & NZ have hit peak snow depth this season, I do hope not though.

Thanks. Interesting if troubling times. Appreciate the considered comment
 

BlueHue

One of Us
Ski Pass
Apr 17, 2003
3,947
4,763
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South of Cooma
Looking across the models for the next week or two, for areas with elevation its not without its possibilities for reasonable sustained accumulation of snow across Perisher, CP and top half of Thredbo. Granted not great for majority of Vic terrain and mild temps meaning pretty average snow quality with some in between wet bits (just cause we've not had enough of that so far this year).

I'm still holding out hope that we've not seen peak snow depth for the season in NSW and perhaps Falls/Hotham. Not to mention that, if a major front manages to kick in over SE Oz, with the moisture around at the moment its gonna dump its friggin brains out. It may well take just one system to manage an eastern peak to set up a half decent backed to the season. The models for now are hinting at the possibility.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
45,055
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Eastern Burbs of Sydney
SW WA is seeing the peaks as a result of the -IOD set-up.
With that in place we'll continue to see moisture draw in from the NW...
We require a deep negative SAM to fracture the cycle through the IO (SAM heading positive ATM).

Right now, I am not seeing that shift to negative SAM.
Could be another couple of weeks of this pattern IMO.
 

boski

half a local
Ski Pass
Apr 13, 2014
2,871
8,269
363
on planks mostly
SW WA is seeing the peaks as a result of the -IOD set-up.
With that in place we'll continue to see moisture draw in from the NW...
We require a deep negative SAM to fracture the cycle through the IO (SAM heading positive ATM).

Right now, I am not seeing that shift to negative SAM.
Could be another couple of weeks of this pattern IMO.
Love the intel and content @Pow
next couple weeks season shapers
 

nfip

Cold 'n Rusty
Ski Pass
Jul 24, 2006
23,041
29,037
1,063
Yuin Country
SW WA is seeing the peaks as a result of the -IOD set-up.
With that in place we'll continue to see moisture draw in from the NW...
We require a deep negative SAM to fracture the cycle through the IO (SAM heading positive ATM).

Right now, I am not seeing that shift to negative SAM.
Could be another couple of weeks of this pattern IMO.
was only thinking this today. WA peaker's.
not focused on the snow this year fwiw, more so eyeballing potential Sth co precip

I do observe the BOM seasonal forecast ongoing La Nina ( ish ) & -'ve IOD plus own gut feels is panning out as per the program.
Simply..... warm n wet.
 

POW Hungry

Old n' Crusty
Moderator
Ski Pass
May 28, 2000
25,612
45,055
1,063
Eastern Burbs of Sydney
More info on that system here too:
 

Rat trap bindings

One of Us
Ski Pass
Jul 17, 2017
449
1,036
263
It was a beautiful and slightly wild day hiking in the Brindabella Ranges yesterday. At times the snow was very heavy and the wind was fairly strong on the ridge. The precip was snow down to around 1500m in the afternoon.

20220806_115345.jpg


20220806_130901_001.jpg


20220806_132635.jpg
Did you do the Stockyard Spur track?
 

Claude Cat

On my bike
Moderator
Ski Pass
Platinum
Jul 6, 2001
141,462
109,925
3,525
Canterbury, Vic

Tuesday 9 August​

Showers over the South West Land Division, southern Goldfields, southern and coastal Gascoyne, Eucla, Interior and southeast Pilbara. Chance of thunderstorms near the South West Land Division coasts, South East Coastal, southern Goldfields and western Eucla. Small hail possible southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Esperance. Possible snow flurries on the peaks of the Stirling Range in the morning. Cold maximum temperatures over most of the South West Land Division and southwest Goldfields.
 

MickM

A Local
Ski Pass
Aug 15, 2001
6,448
7,485
563
Gordon, Vic

Tuesday 9 August​

Showers over the South West Land Division, southern Goldfields, southern and coastal Gascoyne, Eucla, Interior and southeast Pilbara. Chance of thunderstorms near the South West Land Division coasts, South East Coastal, southern Goldfields and western Eucla. Small hail possible southwest of a line Jurien Bay to Esperance. Possible snow flurries on the peaks of the Stirling Range in the morning. Cold maximum temperatures over most of the South West Land Division and southwest Goldfields.
Why are all the good fronts hitting WA?
 
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