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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
Anyone know what's up with the Hotham snow cams? They've been down for a couple of days now.
Not enough snow.
How I feel so far looking at weather maps for snow producing systems...
Warmest winter day today since 1993 at hotham
11.6 degrees Celsius
Ready to shoot the Blue Bird.
23rd/24th seems to have gone AWOL on GFS today. Hopefully it will return tomorrow.
SOI 30 day average looks set to plunge into the negs unless we get some positive numbers back in the daily figures in the next few days
Were there any stray local weather events to explain these recent numbers? 30 day and 90 day are still neutral - though with a consistent low neg value for the 90 day average. PDO has also been strongly positive for months now. Though back to neutral in recent weeks.
2012 was maybe the last season strongly driven by a cool PDO that dovetailed nicely with a deep La Nina. And several years of higher than average volcanic dust in the atmosphere.
The long range forecast for the Snowies is looking rather bland. Can't see any new snow falling in the foreseeable future.
It went into the negatives from the 1st June like a switch had been flicked. Amazing.
So no local weather to explain it like usual in the JFMA period. Next 2 ENSO updates will be interesting - June 20 is the next BOM update.
Back there this morning on the 18Z (& EC's 12Z) run, looks orright.
Has anyone noticed that Thredbo has it's own snow forecaster now? Guy Dixon. And he has a bit of experience at WZ and Swellnet. He seems to know what he is doing, compared to the other folk in that space. The Male Jane Bunn perhaps?
Edit: He might wanna stop relying on GFS runs though.
Agree on the GFS reliance. Also a weekly update with the way the systems are disappearing at the moment will not be that helpful anyway. Maybe a daily or every second day update would help keep Joe Average more informed.
It's as good as any of the others lately.
Given that all of them rely on GFS, I don't expect that to change. But he brings more experience than most of the others.
Some future forecast flakes
But every-time I am posting it goes to crap on the next run. Dam GFS stop jinxing me. So I am not saying anything more.
Yep, 25th back on big time.....for now
I actually meant GFS itself.
Weather humour! What will those wacky meteorologists come up with next?
He snowboards... some of them know weather... #NeverForget
The key is to talk it down not up
The anticyclone that has been anchored over the NW has been forcing the Jet S until
this feature starts shifting east byway of ull-divergence. Not much will change.
Could see it being a pest on Thurs.
Scattering of timing in the 00z charts.
AXS 192 hrs.
EC 216 / 240
GFS a little behind that.
The charts are boring me.
More weather humour required!
I'm thinking that system will rare its head again after dipping in the tasman and bring snow on the 18th.
Putting EM on the table for chop.
Same node, just delayed from 24-48 hours prior?
Would benefit from Sunday's node cooling things surely
I'm not sold, but live in hope
GFS clears it out around the 20th.plot2
What do you think about the 18th jelly.
We can come back to this. edit ?
Yeah thanks for the lesson nfip. Its already well into play.,
Question is will the signal hold serve of weaken out.
Wasn't intended as a lesson at all.
Was putting the pieces from here together as I see them falling into place .
Not much, a few drops on the Vic South Coast maybe.
The 22-26 June period looks interesting. GFS shows something massive, a season starter for sure. EC doesn't. We will have to keep watch. As @nfip said VP200 charts show a potential low.
The vp200 shows lower pressure and lowering heights broad scale.
The sam should also show signs of a dip for that period if its to produce.
a decent system with reaching C/fronts. And of course the anticyclone
needs to move on.
Broad scale divergence is not a low pressure system.
Very likely IMO!
Bleak at 1800
ACCESS-G looks interesting. Snowy outlook on only ACCESS though.
[QUOTE="Jellybeans1000, post: 3306424, member: 66164"]The charts are boring me.
More weather humour required![/QUOTE]
A bit naughty
Na, TBH I copy Jane word for word.
Exposed, oh wait....
Thing could do with some improvement
Had a look this a few of those last night.
They did not appear to be what we would want to see.
.I. e on the warm dry side even if slightly so
Temps to go with Kletterer precip ^^
Not so sure if enough cold SST in the GAB to come into play , but it is one favourable sign.
Bit old but worth a repost.
Check out June 1972 and compare to this year. It came good after June 28 that year.
Also, persistently warm Tasman Sea looks like a relic of 2015-16 El Nino.
June 26th-30th looking great for a couple of back to back systems on the latest GFS run after some potential wet stuff on the 25th.
Was there last night too.