Mega Thread Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Can't be any connection with 2015 elnino..Thermohaline circulation
    along the entire length of the great belt. science tells us.Is approximately
    two thousand years until full circulation occurs.


    [​IMG]
    Its barely @0.4 warmth anom for the Tasman and only in patches
    edit text size
     
    #201 jwx, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
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  2. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EPS Control looks good, but not EC itself.
     
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  3. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
    Ice-age forecast;)
     
  4. Hermon

    Hermon Dedicated Member

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    ^^ It wouldn't surprise me given how cold Antarctica is at present. Something's gotta give.
     
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  5. cookieman

    cookieman Dedicated Member
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    Let it be, let it be, let it be, let it be
    Whisper words of wisdom, let it be
     
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  6. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Feels like spring in Melb today
     
  7. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Was mild this morning.
     
  8. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    DGZ heaven.
     
  9. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Was mild most of the day.

    It certainly has been a dull few weeks here
     
  10. nickxylophone

    nickxylophone New Member

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    I've had 0 millimetres of rain since the 30th of May, and only just over 20 mils total since the end of march. It's a bit ridiculous really, if we hadn't had such a wet summer and i hadn't just built two wicking beds in the yard i'd be getting worried
     
  11. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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  12. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Is that a hint of some winter goodness I see on EC 23-24 Jun ? Mind you, it's just a dash...
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS - it's there but not exactly lighting my fire... (yet). GFS says pre-frontal game is strong.
    [​IMG]
    EC harmonized with Canadia, as below.
    [​IMG]

    Canadia likes it the most.
    [​IMG]
     
    #213 POW_hungry, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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  15. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Yes you are right in think. As you pointed earlier on thread there
    also appears to be a injection of some tropical moisture.
     
  16. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yeah that prefrontal on GFS looks crap... it might damage the snowmade cover though.
     
  17. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    If the low further develops in the tasman it wont matter
    about prefrontal. Key is watching for further development.
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    key is; the high can get f'ed.
     
  19. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Yep that high needs to go, so we can get the nice cold front coming through, that starts the season properly.
     
  20. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Where the models are @now,needs a nudge Nth.


    [​IMG]






    [​IMG]
    Quite lively k/index w/tropical influence suggesting may be V/ stormy. .




    [​IMG]


    Models will shift about. Suggesting a washout at this point of time is premature.
     
    #220 jwx, Jun 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017
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  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Lively vapour transfer at 700 as well but just lacking all the ingredients atm IMO.
     
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  22. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    The sw@700 (wind) flow on the ec is quite powerful atm that suggests a strong front.
    I prefer to wait and see over the next few runs if the low deepens in tasman.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    Mixing ratios etc.
     
  24. Vermillion

    Vermillion Pool Room
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    I reckon i can count on one hand the number of systems that have popped up out of the blue and properly delivered since ive been looking at weather. If I had to do a ratio of 2 foot storms that have disappeared vs. those that have come out of nowhere at +72/+96 hours I reckon I know what the ratio would be.
     
  25. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Top of 17.9c in Melbourne today. Pretty darn warm for winter. Cool nights marred by warmish days.
     
  26. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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  28. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    aka the shortest day and increasingly the coldest for a few more weeks before the afternoon thaw turn to slush in august
     
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  29. CarveMan

    CarveMan aussieskier.com
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    I don't watch things anywhere near as closely as you and others, but I reckon there are plenty of systems that really deliver that just materialise over the alps. It's not like they apparate from dominant high pressure, but they are systems that don't seem that interesting until they get their shit together over the alps.

    IMO these are the ones that really deliver, the ones that are pegged as monsters from a week or so out don't deliver as well.
     
  30. Mister Tee on snow shoes

    Mister Tee on snow shoes Dedicated Member

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    I am into real B.C. snow, not Slurpee machine stuff so It looks like zero real deal snow until July.
     
  31. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Isn't that as much a reflection of your expectation? If you're not expecting much it's easy to have those expectations exceeded.
     
  32. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    EC liking the 24-25th this morning
     
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  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I think you mean The Canadian model. No?
    EC only mildly likes it, mild at best.
     
  34. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    Lets save it in case we don't see it again. ;)

    [​IMG]
     
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  35. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    *like*
     
  36. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    And July 4 is aphelion...
     
  37. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    Which I'm not too proud to say I had to look up. And which I think means the point at which the sun is farthest from the earth. Which as far as I know has nothing to do with snow but IT CAN'T HURT, CAN IT?
     
  38. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    When is this temperature inversion going to end?
     
  39. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage
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    Less energy in..but moderated by stuff like oceans.
     
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  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    As long as we see this High centred over SE Aus. On the bright side, it is allowing resorts to make snow at night. Could be worse.
    IMO I think you can expect at least another week or so of it.
     
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  41. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    But at perisher its only allowing snow making at the bottom of front valley and Mt P everywhere else is to high and to warm.
     
  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    I see no previous mentions of it in this thread, but GFS 18Z looks very close to The Canuck above.
    [​IMG]
    23-25th is def one to watch IMO.
     
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  43. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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  44. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    Access G looks stronger for moisture. Somethings is brewing.
     
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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    That's not the inversions fault. Snowmaking was carried out at all major resorts overnight according to the reports.
     
    #245 POW_hungry, Jun 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
  46. Arsas

    Arsas Active Member

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    I not sure what you mean? Perisher has only been able to make snow on there lowest guns for the last week due to the temperature inversion (if thats what you call it, eveyone else has been using that term). Overnight temps in the village have been negative but up the top temps have been well above freezing.
    Only going on what I see on the snow cams of a night and what @Normo reports in the mornings.
     
  47. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    I can see 10-15cm off EC, of course it's no where near as good as the cunucks.
     
  48. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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    I like this set up. Small cutoff trough followed by polar blast. Like my spin bowling not very accurate, just only some of the time. On second thought the polar blast is not that low in pressure. I guess its a hope cast for the kids Pre July snow trip

    [​IMG]
     
  49. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    My point is that the inversion is a 'necessary evil' in order to make any snow. If you were to see the inversion cleared out you potentially wouldn't have snowmaking at all.
     
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  50. 7wombathead

    7wombathead Dedicated Member

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