Mega Thread Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Weather' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    I like that chart..... except that it's GFS @186hrs....
     
  2. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    You sure about that? +3 at top of Thredbo and -3 village level earlier this morning. Guns were firing on Friday Flat but not at Merritts.
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Fair call.
    Temps aren't the greatest on EC though. GFS & The Canuck both paint a better picture, as you say.
     
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  4. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    24th looks too far south. Still a long way out though.
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Yep, pretty sure. Solid 4-5 hour window of snowmaking conditions overnight @ top of Thredbo. Albeit marginal, it's still a window.
    Are you sure there was NO snowmaking on Merrits overnight? The temps quoted are well after sunrise.
     
  6. PMG

    PMG Dedicated Member
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    When I looked at the cam before 7 there was nothing happening. They may have shut down earlier as it warmed up.
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Bottom line is: "72 snowguns pumping overnight" at Perisher according to the report. That is due to the temperature inversion & prevailing clear dry conditions - whether they have a chance to make it on the peaks doesn't really matter when Perisher have such significant snow cat ability to push it round. Be thankful IMO.
     
  8. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    I would have to look it up too.
     
  9. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    good point.
    lesson learned perhaps don't always dismiss GFS as being wet and overly optimistic.
    proof will be in the pudding , see how it progresses over the next 7 days for this event.
     
  10. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    also Snowmaking needs , or does better, with low humidity .
    more so when the temps are not so cold.
     
  11. Bloke

    Bloke Dedicated Member

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    And it only shifts by about 1 day every 58 years so it's pretty much at the same time each year. About 800 years ago aphelion would have been on the June solstice.
     
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  12. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    I got aphelion that tonight's gonna be a good night :out:
     
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  13. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Feels like a spring day in Melbourne today. In the sun it is quite warm, only a light jumper required
     
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  14. bengarden

    bengarden Active Member

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    Its quite ridiculous for June that its about the same daytime temp here in Canberra as Perisher. 8.5 vs 9. Yesterday it was colder in Canberra in the middle of the day at 5 degrees vs 8 at Perisher. Surely elevation of 1720 vs 570 has to make it cooler? Or is there just no proper cold air around......It definitely feels wintery here with a lunchtime temp in single digits, why is it so warm in the mountains? I normally work off a formula that says if its 10 degrees or below for the daytime temp in Canberra then it can usually be reliably zero or below up at the snow......
     
  15. alexd

    alexd Dedicated Member

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    High pressure causing inversions. As has been mentioned it's cold down low at the resorts.
    Edit: at night at least. Yeah, high pressure times does make it warm up a lot in the day. It'll change eventually.
     
  16. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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    The exile is saying it will all change later next week. - a newly trending thread on FB PSR for those interested.
     
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  17. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    EC 12z shaping up nicely mass cold shot With a low pressure system in tow.



    [​IMG]




    [​IMG]
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture
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    He's rather confident about this one.....
     
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    GFS 00Z says it's kept well south of Tas. Not going for much below 1015hPa. Needs a helping hand from another model IMO.
    Certainly looks to break the ridge but it's nothing big (yet).
     
  20. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room
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    Tassie special.
     
  21. Ramshead

    Ramshead Dedicated Member

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    A few cms for all mainland resorts next Wednesday if WZ is right. Which I suspect it won't be based on a heavy analysis of the vibe (including the thickness and uppers of the vibe)

    [​IMG]
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    No dice on EC's 00Z for the 23/24th, the ridge continues.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Looking unlikely to deliver any more than a dusting to a few cms up high IMO. Bit of rain perhaps too.
     
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  24. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    This thread needs more skynews snow forecasts. ;)
     
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  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy Dedicated Member
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  26. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Nothing really to get excited about right now.
     
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  27. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    [​IMG]
    Still time for improvement, Main thing is the 540 is still hugging the alps.
    It still looks more than just a tassie special.
     
  28. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Looked better this morning, tonight not so much.
     
  29. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    Yeah the EC12z was a better run. Ignoring the GFS until its within 72hrs
    Have not looked @other models. I read the french model now is run on
    super computers equivalent to the EC with the same assimilation.
    Maybe be a better model guidance to compare with.

    With that said worse looking runs have produced dumps.

    This guidance is eight days out. its not in stone and wont be for at least
    another six days.:)
     
    #279 jwx, Jun 16, 2017
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
  30. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Clippity clip
     
  31. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat Gone Fishing
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    Looks cold, but needs moisture badly.
     
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  32. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    pls feed.
    Good NW WA injection just not looking likely atm
     
  33. The Plowking

    The Plowking Part of the Furniture
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    Maps look bloody good for surf net week here in Victoria.
    Flat out, might miss :(
     
  34. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    I would use UKMO United Model as comparison to EC, but that's only up to 6 days.
    Defnitely agree about GFS though.
    NAVGEM?;)
     
  35. jwx

    jwx Dedicated Member

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    It was ryan maue who said what i posted about the french model is now running on
    super computers. He went as far to say its free and up with the best..

    Ukmo from what i have seen is only as good as access a very limited time frame for accuracy.


    NAVGEM =Mchale's navy misadventures,comic relief.
     
  36. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    LOL Exactly what NAVGEM is.
    Yeah UKMO has got a stupidly tiny timeline. Though ACCESS is 10 day.
    If the French Model ran on super computers, that would defnitely make it game.

    But I wouldn't trust Ryan Maue very much for reasons not to be mentioned here.
     
  37. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    Nice upgrade this morning.
     
  38. melty68

    melty68 Dedicated Member

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    Balmy and humid on the coast in Sydney this morning very strange weather
     
  39. melty68

    melty68 Dedicated Member

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    Just looked at BOM radar this is why
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    EC has the tropical moisture that GFS had in the mix on yesterday's runs. Temps are far from ideal below 1700m IMO, needs work.
     
  41. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    [​IMG]
    EC shows a not very cold system, with the 540dam line not over the Alps.
    [​IMG]
    5-10cm on EC snow accum though, not bad for a Clipper.

    GFS has a much colder front with snow to 1000m.
    [​IMG]

    This chart shows the extent of the snow at this particular time with the 0 degree line at approx 1500m.
    [​IMG]

    GFS looks like 5cm ATM. If both models hold, there should be snow for much of the Alps. However EC and GFS could do better though.
     
  42. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki Dedicated Member
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    It's close enough. Sunday looks good.
     
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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    For NSW resorts the Lead up may have the jet suppressing cloud formation in the uppers and frontogenisis/ vort too far south.
     
  44. Karicta

    Karicta Dedicated Member
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    Yr.no progs 40cm at mt p and 20cm at buller fri-mon (marginal temps at buller though...)
     
  45. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU Dedicated Member
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    Lovely crisp 4c in Melbourne city this morning.

    I love being in the cbd as the sun rises on a cold morning. Warm glow comes up from behind the buildings, people walking around layered up and their breath visible as they move around. Condensation on building windows and steam billowing from rooftops...

    Perfect.
     
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  46. Vandans

    Vandans Active Member

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    Whats is FB PSR code for??
     
  47. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture
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    Bit like blowing the head off a freshly poured Vic Bitter. Lacks aesthetical beauty.
     
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  48. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    Facebook group called Perisher Snow Riders.
     
  49. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Dedicated Member
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    That's defnitely over the top IMO. GFS and EC both look around 5-10cm.

    We need to be patient. We should get a better picture early next week.
     
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  50. Kletterer

    Kletterer Addicted Member
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