1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW WEATHERZONE FOLK

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    A year in review for Mr Blackheath snow enthusiast.:thumbs:
     
  2. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    1,268
    Likes Received:
    1,499
    That would be highly compatible with my touring plans. Shame it's not showing anywhere else...
     
  3. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,805
    Location:
    Gerroa
  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Nah, it’s updates are 2 times a day, same as EC. The timestamp says ‘printed’, I suspect because it’s a PDF it’s ripping detail from meteos every two hours so it’s only showing the latest timescales.
     
  5. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,805
    Location:
    Gerroa
    yes I get the timescales - but i've noticed more than 2 changes over the day recently - those snow amounts for tmw have changed repeatedly. I'll take some screen shots in future days and see if it's not imaginary.
     
  6. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    667
    Likes Received:
    544
    Pow this is great, your video?
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Nah mate. The Blue Mountains snow-chasing guru MasterNASA1. Not sure if he's on these forums or not.
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  8. 7wombathead

    7wombathead One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,794
    Likes Received:
    1,388
    Location:
    South
    Any chance this one may come in a bit further west.

    Big storm forecast to hit NZ

    [​IMG]
     
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Interesting little set-up on/around the 28th, with the potential for the WA surface trough to interact with a wandering cold pool.
    GFS has ear marked it for a few days and EC seems to be toying with it also.
    It may only spell snow up-high but looks interesting nonetheless.
    [​IMG]

    EC
    [​IMG]
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  10. parkmonkey

    parkmonkey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 20, 2005
    Messages:
    35,409
    Likes Received:
    13,951
    Location:
    On a wave or mountain face near you.
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS still progging an inexcusable set-up ~28th. EC looks keen ~29th. Mildly something there IMO.
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  12. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Fascinating read on the 100 to 0, real-quick, nature of the record-matching Hurricane/Typhoon systems through the NH this week.
     
    MarkV, Jellybeans, nfip and 1 other person like this.
  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    The 28th looks like a little something on EC.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  14. davidg

    davidg Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2009
    Messages:
    11,481
    Likes Received:
    11,364
    Location:
    Lower BM's
    Thanks for posting! Not a bad year for snowfalls out on the CT's. Not much for the BM's as usual but that's not unexpected. Those snowfalls in May were impressive. Will have to try and make it out that way next Winter for old times sake.

    The hours me and one of my mates have spent driving those road in the middle of the night, its nice to see it during the day! I remember quite a few years back, maybe 2008, snowboarding down the road at Mt Trickett at about 1am LOL
     
  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    A quick check in on ENSO.

    The latest Nino 3.4 figures on average show a Borderline Nino by Australian standards. This is in terms of oceanic conditions in the ENSO region.

    In terms of atmospheric Nino conditions, the ECMWF forecast for the SOI is below.

    It shows atmospheric conditions that are not Nino-like coming into summer.

    A brief extract from my incomplete blogpost soon to be posted:
     
    DiscoStuAU, SMSkier and nfip like this.
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Looking large on GFS’s 00z run. Starting to see some trend so confidence is improving but I am a sceptic on the bullishness. Keen to seen ECs run this arvo.
     
  17. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,548
    Location:
    woonona
    Looks large in the bowl of pasta as well
     
  18. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,075
    Likes Received:
    17,169
    Location:
    South Co.
    and tracking the following cut-off for bc dinkings 5/6th.
     
  19. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Scored a nice 11mls this morning in Umina which was very nice. Hopefully score some follow up rain on Monday which should start to green things up for spring.
     
    Ted Harper, Kletterer and Claude Cat like this.
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    Bom has 6-15 for newcastle Monday.
     
    Ted Harper and The Fallen like this.
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC, it's there. But it's as weak AF
    [​IMG]
     
  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC will upgrade, GFS will downgrade . Nothin new.
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,007
    Likes Received:
    19,081
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Not a skerrick of a system on The Canuck though.
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Will it though?
     
  25. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    200 hPa stream slowing down briskly and staying North. Zonal winds still holding a reasonable pattern to support the ridge to go slow. Its only GEFS but its not bad for a bit of early vibe.
     
    POW_hungry and SMSkier like this.
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I know not 200hPa, but EPS 500hPa....

    There's potential for a significant period, just can't see the temps to deliver it.
     
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    I only look at precip this far out in late Sept. Monaro is desperate for some rain.
     
    Ted Harper and The Fallen like this.
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Well it's there. Not enough though.
     
  29. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,408
    Likes Received:
    3,402
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I'm sorry if I sound like a bitch for posting this stuff when I see it... But... Really? I mean, which crystal ball was looked into for this one? And why is there no "evidence" to back up the claims? Sigh .
     
  30. TheFake

    TheFake Addicted

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2008
    Messages:
    225
    Likes Received:
    227
    I predict that summer will be hot and winter will be cold. I think I should start my own weather forecasting service, I'm clearly qualified!
     
    Claude Cat and MarkV like this.
  31. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,130
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    It's summer FFS. Is this the sunspot dude?
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    Downstream barbs and vort looks good on this plot but could change . Still worth considering imo.
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yes.
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2018/09/another-september-winter-2018-19.html

    A more comprehensive follow on to the below.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  35. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,130
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    Thought so.
     
  36. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
  37. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    8,485
    Likes Received:
    7,134
    Location:
    The Shire, Sydney
    Crap wording and very ordinary grammar.

    If you want us to buy into this shite you must present it better.
     
    AussieWhite likes this.
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    What was 2006 like for Europe? Sorry, can't be bothered to find the analogs :thumbs:
     
  39. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,805
    Location:
    Gerroa
    AussieWhite and nfip like this.
  40. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Looks like a bit of tropical moisture is moving through central Aus and heading towards NSW. Fingers crossed this team up with Sundays clipper and deliver some rain to NSW and QLD.


     
    nfip likes this.
  41. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    29,744
    Likes Received:
    12,626
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    The sunspots must have told him
     
    The Fallen and DiscoStuAU like this.
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    Dry and mild- particularly in the South. Dec- Jan was a struggle.
     
  43. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Hey Kletts, off topic. I posted in the North America Travel thread but would love yours and the other weather guru's input. What's the best US or European resort for a reliable White Christmas? Doing the family thing in December 2019. I'd love if I can find some advanced terrain but being early season, I'd be happy for a nice Christmas village and a few green & blue runs for the nieces?
     
  44. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    That's not an early onset monsoon trough pushing down over New Cal Monday into Tuesday? It was early last year but September?



     
  45. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    8,548
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I don't know, most people I have talked to seem to think a -NAO on accord of the "likely" -EPO is the most likely outcome, which would bring wetter conditions to mainland Europe. But I see more neutral (but not totally at all) conditions IMO from the data I have seen.
    Don't know about Europe. Alta/Bird, Jackson, Steamboat in terms of snow conditions, there's better people for run gradings. I know people who like to say Whistler and Mammoth too, because of high snowfall amounts, but that snow can also be sadly rain early in the season. So resorts like the first few are the best place to start.
     
    Kletterer and The Fallen like this.
  46. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    Cool. I'll check em out. Was actually seriously thinking Jackson Hole given location and terrain plus if the snow doesn't arrive then at least we can tour Yellowstone which I'm keen to see so win win.
     
    Rick Ross Da Boss likes this.
  47. Seafm

    Seafm Too far from the snow Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2014
    Messages:
    4,130
    Likes Received:
    3,481
    Location:
    Cairns, Queensland
    In September? I would very much doubt it. Nowhere near hot enough in North Queensland for monsoon activity yet. I haven't turned on the ac yet.
     
    nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    Depends on the amount of emphasis on Christmas experience.
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,138
    Location:
    Canberra
    An interesting change on EC last run.
     
    MarkV and nfip like this.
  50. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,075
    Likes Received:
    17,169
    Location:
    South Co.
    :eek::eek::eek:
    Right on my head.
    Not good for the NRL GF or the lwe campers either.