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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
A year in review for Mr Blackheath snow enthusiast.
That would be highly compatible with my touring plans. Shame it's not showing anywhere else...
It appears that yr.no updates every 2 hours as shown on the PDF version of the forecast.
See top right of any yr.no forecast page where the PDF icon is shown.
Nah, it’s updates are 2 times a day, same as EC. The timestamp says ‘printed’, I suspect because it’s a PDF it’s ripping detail from meteos every two hours so it’s only showing the latest timescales.
yes I get the timescales - but i've noticed more than 2 changes over the day recently - those snow amounts for tmw have changed repeatedly. I'll take some screen shots in future days and see if it's not imaginary.
Pow this is great, your video?
Nah mate. The Blue Mountains snow-chasing guru MasterNASA1. Not sure if he's on these forums or not.
Any chance this one may come in a bit further west.
Big storm forecast to hit NZ
Interesting little set-up on/around the 28th, with the potential for the WA surface trough to interact with a wandering cold pool.
GFS has ear marked it for a few days and EC seems to be toying with it also.
It may only spell snow up-high but looks interesting nonetheless.
GFS still progging an inexcusable set-up ~28th. EC looks keen ~29th. Mildly something there IMO.
Fascinating read on the 100 to 0, real-quick, nature of the record-matching Hurricane/Typhoon systems through the NH this week.
The 28th looks like a little something on EC.
Thanks for posting! Not a bad year for snowfalls out on the CT's. Not much for the BM's as usual but that's not unexpected. Those snowfalls in May were impressive. Will have to try and make it out that way next Winter for old times sake.
The hours me and one of my mates have spent driving those road in the middle of the night, its nice to see it during the day! I remember quite a few years back, maybe 2008, snowboarding down the road at Mt Trickett at about 1am
A quick check in on ENSO.
The latest Nino 3.4 figures on average show a Borderline Nino by Australian standards. This is in terms of oceanic conditions in the ENSO region.
In terms of atmospheric Nino conditions, the ECMWF forecast for the SOI is below.
It shows atmospheric conditions that are not Nino-like coming into summer.
A brief extract from my incomplete blogpost soon to be posted:
Looking large on GFS’s 00z run. Starting to see some trend so confidence is improving but I am a sceptic on the bullishness. Keen to seen ECs run this arvo.
Looks large in the bowl of pasta as well
and tracking the following cut-off for bc dinkings 5/6th.
Scored a nice 11mls this morning in Umina which was very nice. Hopefully score some follow up rain on Monday which should start to green things up for spring.
Bom has 6-15 for newcastle Monday.
EC, it's there. But it's as weak AF
EC will upgrade, GFS will downgrade . Nothin new.
Not a skerrick of a system on The Canuck though.
Will it though?
200 hPa stream slowing down briskly and staying North. Zonal winds still holding a reasonable pattern to support the ridge to go slow. Its only GEFS but its not bad for a bit of early vibe.
I know not 200hPa, but EPS 500hPa....
There's potential for a significant period, just can't see the temps to deliver it.
I only look at precip this far out in late Sept. Monaro is desperate for some rain.
Well it's there. Not enough though.
I'm sorry if I sound like a bitch for posting this stuff when I see it... But... Really? I mean, which crystal ball was looked into for this one? And why is there no "evidence" to back up the claims? Sigh .
I predict that summer will be hot and winter will be cold. I think I should start my own weather forecasting service, I'm clearly qualified!
It's summer FFS. Is this the sunspot dude?
Downstream barbs and vort looks good on this plot but could change . Still worth considering imo.
A more comprehensive follow on to the below.
QBO suggesting another 2006 for Europe ?
Crap wording and very ordinary grammar.
If you want us to buy into this shite you must present it better.
What was 2006 like for Europe? Sorry, can't be bothered to find the analogs
aao forecast is a toss of the coin either way at present
Meanwhile, there looks to be something decent passing Cape Town at present.
Hopefully due to snow falls road to Eyre first week of Oct has to be closed and they have to keep Leichhardt and SunV still going. last year they ran a bunch of lifts at PV to the very end. And it hadn't snowed for weeks by then.
Looks like a bit of tropical moisture is moving through central Aus and heading towards NSW. Fingers crossed this team up with Sundays clipper and deliver some rain to NSW and QLD.
The sunspots must have told him
Dry and mild- particularly in the South. Dec- Jan was a struggle.
Hey Kletts, off topic. I posted in the North America Travel thread but would love yours and the other weather guru's input. What's the best US or European resort for a reliable White Christmas? Doing the family thing in December 2019. I'd love if I can find some advanced terrain but being early season, I'd be happy for a nice Christmas village and a few green & blue runs for the nieces?
That's not an early onset monsoon trough pushing down over New Cal Monday into Tuesday? It was early last year but September?
I don't know, most people I have talked to seem to think a -NAO on accord of the "likely" -EPO is the most likely outcome, which would bring wetter conditions to mainland Europe. But I see more neutral (but not totally at all) conditions IMO from the data I have seen.
Don't know about Europe. Alta/Bird, Jackson, Steamboat in terms of snow conditions, there's better people for run gradings. I know people who like to say Whistler and Mammoth too, because of high snowfall amounts, but that snow can also be sadly rain early in the season. So resorts like the first few are the best place to start.
Cool. I'll check em out. Was actually seriously thinking Jackson Hole given location and terrain plus if the snow doesn't arrive then at least we can tour Yellowstone which I'm keen to see so win win.
In September? I would very much doubt it. Nowhere near hot enough in North Queensland for monsoon activity yet. I haven't turned on the ac yet.
Depends on the amount of emphasis on Christmas experience.
An interesting change on EC last run.
Right on my head.
Not good for the NRL GF or the lwe campers either.