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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
It’s grey, but not cold!
Rode in mostly summer kit this morning.
The wind was quite cold down here.
We're just down the road and it's almost nice, apart from the gloom
Perhaps the chimney is blocked up?
I will have to agree to disagree...
Pretty gloomy here in Elwood. No sun, not warm but not cold. Just chilly-mild grey overcast.
Run along the beach a few hours ago was nice though, no wind
It was mild yesterday, but cold again this morning.
Looks like a damp QBW looking at the charts this morning.
Yep QBW looks very good
June 10-13 being the next key period to watch.
Currently it features a initial coldfront on the 10th that peaks over WA.
On EC the cold air weakens, and the Alps gets a lot of rain on the 10th.
Then another coldfront comes behind it to bring an extended system.
GFS, the cold air of the WA peak front stays somewhat intact over SE Aus and brings snow through the 10th onwards.
GFS has the system continuing to the 13th.
We need a obs thread..
3rd- 7th ish Obs thread can kick off late tonight.
I've stuck one up. We'll see the weather here in Melbourne this afternoon.
Yeah. Just noticed it will affect Victoria shortly
EC 00z is well and truly on the June 10-13th train.
GFS sets it a bit further back, still with the precursor front.
Note: similar characteristics to the system tomorrow at a low level POV.
CMC is into it as well.
AXS not as into it, has a weak coldfront behind a massive lot of prefrontal.
Stand down guys the frogs got your next 15 days covered already
(Note: similar characteristics to the system tomorrow at a low level POV.)
Please explain that quote without a realtime vapor image to show a defined
baroclinic band or low level pv anomaly with the model ull.
Look who’s back again.....
Progged 00z run system (note 06z is different):
The key similarity is the S/SE wind aspect of the system, and the hook around from a low just offshore.
Also the low setup (apart from a slight difference in position).
Differences (note the word “similar”) are the low level pressure (the T+264 is deeper than the one for tomorrow).
And the model has changed anyway away from that type of system.
Is that enough to suffice, Quadrant/jwx/jeffx/stormhunter/coldfronts?
Would you prefer a Dipole PV scenario ?
AAO looks to be swinging back into +ve. The cold fronts are likely to lose their punch over the next couple of weeks IMO.
How's the induced advection in the lower level looking ?
i think my theory of skiing whenever there is snow will work out...im not convinced about 2019...im heading up sat sun mon to get whatever i can
That is a very large line of rain, do they normally extent that far up the WA coast?
Not unusual in winter.
It happens when you have a 'fluid' mid to upper level jet moving moisture around the mid-latitudes.
In Winter it's relatively common.
LWT looks like it is sitting around just over the Bight for a little while after the 13th, not moving a whole lot. Once it moves across SE Australia, we could start to see it pick up (the 14-18th Jun period).
RRWT guidance through the LWT is showing the 24-29th June period (below) to be the next potential period for snowfall. After that, our next candidates for snowfall periods look like 1-4 July and 15-20 July.
We are seeing a bit of a flattening out in the LWT however, helped to be brought on by +AAM zonal anomalies in the SH mid latitudes.
while we wait for yr.no to update late where it matters,
the Badja is in and it's looking dry dry dry. ok it's in a rain shadow - but this is truly dry.
70mm of **** followed by a 5cm megadump
SW WA (Perth) just closed out it's driest May in 55 years now it's in for this:
I may be stupid, but something I don’t understand about yr.no
On the desktop version, in the long term forecast, like that one you just posted ... Why do the headline precipitation figures of the days across the top not show the daily total, but just the afternoon hours?
For example here is one
Monday 10th June across the top shows 10.4mm. However, further down the page, you see 10.4mm is the total for 10-16:00, not the whole day? The daily total is actually 26.7mm, which you have to add up yourself to calculate.
In the pdf version it states this is how it works, but why?? Seems counter intuitive to me. The mobile version does not work that way
I'd love tell you there's a good reason, but simply how it is, how it's always been. Yes, it's annoying.
Same as the temperature.
Essentially it's meant to be representative of what happens early afternoon of each day.
1964? I'll take that.
It's interesting that see some comments in another weather forum that this year could be a lot like 1908 - dry start to the year with a big summer heatwave, followed by a decent winter growing season in Southern Australia. Neutral el-Nino and a swing into +ve IOD that year.
Incidentally, winter 1908 was known for some monster cold outbreaks across SE Aust, particularly in late June, and in August and September.
Next week looking warm in Melbourne, 19 and 18 in the forecast. No likey
We've just about surpassed our entire May rainfall (60mm+) in the last 5 hours down on the Capes.
Hopefully 100mm+ by Monday.
can we beat the three year curse - 2013 - 2016 - 2019
- I left out 2010 'cause it was a crap drought year not a crap wet year.
then there's the three year in a row curse 2017 - 2018 - 2019
- all round the outlook is remains gloom with hope or is that hope with gloom.
Dont overthink it . Its the year of Anomolies.
1908 was around the time they had 6ft of snow in Goulburn..
Southern Flinders Ranges and around Peterborough in South Australia also had some big snowfalls that year.
St Mary's peak under snow! Now that's something I'd like to see.
Its warm and practically white out today at falls but better than I expected considering opening weekend.
MJO hitting a wall in the IO over the last few days.
Nonetheless, there's a TD formed in the Arabian Sea West of Southern India, despite it not expected to develop into a TC in the near future. A lot of meandering moisture in the Northern IO.
Major models like another kick in the MJO signal as it hits the Indo-Pacific region.
There's an overtaking lane in that pic? The empty lane on the right? Gun it!