1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW WEATHERZONE FOLK

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2017
    Messages:
    2,030
    Likes Received:
    2,190
    Nobody pick up on my sense of humour?
    Queenslanders just yell "Queenslander" if it's going off or sh*t.
     
    W0nkey D0nkey likes this.
  2. chicski

    chicski A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2017
    Messages:
    5,929
    Likes Received:
    9,119
    And now a 5 car accident near Marulan on the Hume. Nobody is getting home quickly tonight. Have heard reports of over 4hrs from Jindy to Canberra.

    Sorry way off topic :oops:
     
  3. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,487
    Likes Received:
    396
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    There’s always one clown in a Pajero doing just that in those conditions on the way back, before desperately diving back in and forcing open a gap a whole three cars ahead when, to their complete surprise, a car is coming the other way. The other drivers collectively think ‘****wit’ but begrudgingly let him in because, while not doing so might teach him a lesson, there’s just too much admin involved in making a crash witness statement
     
  4. CarveMan

    CarveMan Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 12, 2000
    Messages:
    74,781
    Likes Received:
    37,891
    Location:
    Les Hautes Montagnes
    Yep it’s always a car that can’t go round corners that makes up for their inadequacies in the straights.
     
    dawooduck likes this.
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    The car conga train on the Melba from Buller was not as bad as that. Slowed down on and off.
     
  6. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    Four hours Canberra to Campbelltown
     
  7. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    It never will be...
     
  8. Zimbooo

    Zimbooo One of Us

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2017
    Messages:
    2,030
    Likes Received:
    2,190
    Not till it's Epic.
    Sorry, must get onto the pans...........cook'n time!!!
     
  9. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    And I am glad for that.

    That aside, based on today’s rain, Cover after Weds will be quite poor even in snowmaking areas. But it’s still June....
     
  10. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    It's not just Perisher.
    It's jindabyne and Thredbo.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,090
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Good falls in the SW with the front just hitting Perth now.
    [​IMG]
     
    Claude Cat, SMSkier, Rabid K9 and 2 others like this.
  12. Rabid K9

    Rabid K9 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 15, 2008
    Messages:
    4,161
    Likes Received:
    3,710
    Storming towards the June average down south.

    Clockwork cold showers for last few days, some boisterous winds, up to about 150mm'ish since last Thursday night.

    Land is soaking it up like a sponge, everything needs a good charge after the dry May before the aquatic systems get going.
     
  13. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,411
    Likes Received:
    12,730
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    So why is the weather radar at Captains Flat?
    Travel
    If, like me, you are a self-confessed weather nut, you probably check the weather radar every few minutes on stormy days. The closer the storm gets, the more often you refresh it. Will we sustain a direct hit, or will it skirt around the Brindabellas? According to Mrs Yowie, who regularly laments my weather obsession, my record for checking the radar is 167 times on a single afternoon.

    But I'm not alone with my radar fixation. With radar apps on many smartphones, if rain is about, it's now commonplace at sporting events, whether it be at an under-10 netball tussle at Lyneham to Raiders clashes at Canberra Stadium, for spectators to regularly scrutinise the radar. You want to know when to make a run for the car or covered seating. Oh, and I'd like a dollar for every time a cricket commentator tries to interpret (usually incorrectly) a radar image during a rain break.

    [​IMG]
    A Bureau of Meteorology technician captured this time lapse at the Canberra (Captains Flat) radar. Picture: BOM

    Having access to radar images has many benefits in rural areas such as farmers being able to fertilise their crops before an impending downpour, but the radar also has a range of practical uses in urban areas. When I plied my trade in the public service it wasn't unusual for my cycling colleagues to spend most of the last hour of a wet day, poring over the radar images, planning with military precision the timing of their pedal home. In fact, the IT boffins for the agency I worked for once claimed during stormy weather the Bureau of Meteorology radar page had more clicks than the department's own policy pages. Heaven forbid.

    Given Canberrans obvious fascination with the weather, questions about the radar often lob into my inbox, including a missive this week from Tim Parkinson of Kambah, who asks many questions about the Canberra radar, including why it's located at Captains Flat and if you can actually visit the site.

    Having never made the pilgrimage to see the radar, I needed little convincing to take a late autumn drive in the country.

    [​IMG]
    New mural on the amenities block at Captains Flat, featuring the bull after which the historic mining town is named. Picture: Tim the Yowie Man

    After passing through the 'Flat (don't miss the great new mural on the amenities block), the radar is a 15 minute or so drive (4WD recommended) along the Mt Cowangerong fire trail that runs along the heavily forested spine of the Great Diving Range.

    [​IMG]
    The Canberra (Captains Flat) radar. Picture: Tim the Yowie Man

    Despite its remote location, it's hard to miss the radar, which like a giant golf ball sits atop a 22 metre tall tee in a small clearing near the summit of Mt Cowangerong (1382 metres above sea level).

    As you'd expect the radar buildings are designed to house highly specialised mechanical and electronic equipment and are locked-up in a secure compound, and while there's not much to do here except take a photo (oh, don't forget a golf stick for the obligatory photo), weather nerds will appreciate being able to tick a visit here off their bucket list of meteorological must-sees.

    To help answer Kim's trickier questions about the radar, I tracked down Ann Farrell, NSW state manager with the bureau.

    [​IMG]
    Tim visits the site of the Canberra (Captains Flat) radar which resembles a giant golf ball on a tee. Picture: Tim the Yowie Man

    Why is the Canberra radar at Captains Flat?
    According to Ann, radar sites are chosen for a number of reasons.

    "Generally speaking, radars need to be slightly away from the communities they cover as they can't detect rainfall directly overhead," Ann says.

    "They also need the surrounding skyline to be clear to prevent potential obstruction to the radar signal."

    Technical requirements such as power, communication and construction also need to be considered.

    How long has it been there?
    The Captains Flat radar, the first for the Canberra region, was installed in 2003.

    Why is the radar sometimes "unavailable"?
    [​IMG]
    The Canberra (Captains Flat) radar lights up like a Christmas Tree during big storms of Christmas Eve 2016. Picture: BOM and Adam Benfatto

    This is one of my beefs too. The radar always seems to go down when that big rain event is approaching but it turns out not all outages are unplanned.

    "To ensure our radars are working to optimum capacity, we carry out two planned outages every year to undertake maintenance," Ann says.

    "This program of work saw our radar fleet operational 97 per cent of the time during the 2017-18 financial year."

    But yes, there are also unexpected outages.

    "Like any piece of equipment with moving parts, radars can on occasion develop faults," Ann says.

    "As you would expect, these are more commonly associated with the hardest working parts of the radar such as motors, gearboxes and transmitter components."

    When the Canberra radar is "unavailable", which is the best alternative to turn to?
    Australia has the fourth-largest weather radar network in the world, with more than 60 radars, but the curvature of the earth means that optimal range of a radar is between 5km and 200km. The closest radars to Canberra within that range are Wollongong and Wagga Wagga, and given most of Canberra's weather comes from the south-west, Ann advises the latter is usually the best alternative.

    Can the radar be "wrong"?
    [​IMG]
    Wind farms like these at Lake George can create false echoes on the Canberra (Captains Flat) radar. Picture: Susan Clarke

    The radar works be sending out electromagnetic waves in short pulses and when theses pulses hit water (or other) particles they reflect back to the radar much like echoes you hear in a cave. How long the pulses take to return determines the distance and their strength determines the intensity of the precipitation.

    However, according to Ann, "the radar can pick up all sorts of other features, including smoke plumes from bushfires, wind farm turbines, insect swarms [heck, I'd like to see that!] and virga [rain that falls but doesn't reach the ground]".

    On the flip-side, low level drizzle is sometimes not detected on the radar as droplets can be small below the radar beam.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6196331/wild-weather-has-us-in-a-radar-daze/?cs=14325
     
    bywong_yuki likes this.
  14. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,090
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I’ll happily take a long season with corn harvest on hold.
     
    nfip and Kletterer like this.
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Quite a hopeful run.
    It does go against the trend however....
     
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    Will take anything atm. The 46 dayer showing a couple of little flutters .
     
  18. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    End of this month I reckon. Something around there IMO.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  19. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    COL and oops im off topic :oops:
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  20. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,901
    Likes Received:
    203
    June looks done :(
     
  21. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,411
    Likes Received:
    12,730
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Huh ? Wed-Thurs next week looks alright. There's also snow making potential from this Thursday until then.
     
    Ret-ro and Kletterer like this.
  22. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 1999
    Messages:
    36,901
    Likes Received:
    203
    Snwomaking is of no interest to me. 10cms or so maybe next week wont make up for what will be lost in the next 48 hours
     
  23. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,551
    Likes Received:
    1,521
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
    [​IMG]
     
    Scoober and Deanski like this.
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,090
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,090
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    @Gerg suggesting a slightly + AAO winter season - favouring a more zonal pattern for us in the mid-lats.
     
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Good to hear he is getting around to the seasonal forecast.
     
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    EC upgrades for the upcoming 12z run tomorrow morning.

    And current GFS is finally going to be put into the archive, and FV3 will take over as of Wednesday 12z.

    Newly minted model upgrades just in time for the big snowfall months of the season :thumbs:
     
    nfip and Kletterer like this.
  28. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    667
    Likes Received:
    546
    Snowmaking will do me.. They make a nice surface to play on.. Funny how 6 weeks in Canada changes it all
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Just some musings about the next month of weather:


    Read the full thread for the details :thumbs:
     
    Snowy Joey, nfip, DiscoStuAU and 2 others like this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,090
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The newest product of the MJO's pass through the IO is Cyclone Vayu, located off the coast of India in the Arabian Sea.
    [​IMG]
     
  31. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,408
    Likes Received:
    3,402
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Good read, thank you for sharing :emoji_call_me:
     
  32. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Thanks, I will do a proper write up in the coming days too.
     
    Kletterer and DiscoStuAU like this.
  33. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    The rest of gerg's charts in that thread are great. You can clearly see the "10" year dog year in several charts

    And while it's probably just statistical noise - my gloomcast is 80-120cm peak depth - unless it flips.

    If the drought is ending, or rather - transitioning to a new weather phase - it will obviously depend on what temps the fronts come through at. Most crap seasons are boom/bust - and such, best to book in for nothing but tomorrow - but that applies to any season IMO
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,090
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I think Gergs call will be out in the next few days, if not today, I think his will land in the 140-170 range with his points considered.
     
    SMSkier likes this.
  35. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    with these overnite temps it'll be slushed out on front valley by 9am
     
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    The Alps, particularly on the NSW end, aren’t in drought however.


    The big problem with the system at the moment is that the MJO is providing this big feed, but the AAO and the LWT are positive/zonal.

    You ultimately need cold for snow, and you need both cold and moisture for dumps. Like I said, the cold climate drivers will probably improve starting towards the end of the month. If the MJO is still there above Maritime Continent, any end of the month system could be quite good.

    But for now, the rain is good for Western Vic and SA.
     
    nfip, SMSkier, skiflat and 1 other person like this.
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    I'm referring to the nation-wide drought over the past two years - which has broken only in some places. And in some of these areas it's classic green drought and the recent rains have barely wetted the surface. The regions around the NSW alps are still pretty damn dry still. They came good for a few weeks, and then it stopped raining again.

    My overall point was that yes we need cold for snow. But like 2013 and 2016 and so often in the Australian alps we are always 1-2 degrees off nirvana and a warm wet winter with the occasional cold front - is as likely as anything in the months ahead.
     
  38. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    This is current of nullschool at 1000 hPa ~100 m, near sea level conditions

    Look at that warm air injection.

     
  39. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    Teleconnections between ENSO and SAM are harder to predict during our Winter due to a higher occurance of Baroclinic Eddies down South. More Zonal advective feedback and potential Inertia.
     
  40. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    TBH I see the low moisture being more of an issue, than lack of cold, as we go into the proper snowfall months of July and August.

    Speaking of moisture sources, here is the EC Monthly MJO forecast. Next 5-10 days feature a pass of the MJO over the Australian region. It will be crucial over the entire winter with a +IOD.
     
    skiflat and rocketboy like this.
  41. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I think there’s better oceanic connections through Modoki/CP Nino rather than Canonical Nino.

    And of course the big link is through atmospheric connections through momentum transport.
     
  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    The cold tongue/ warm tongue scenarios are very interesting.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  43. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
  44. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2001
    Messages:
    1,566
    Likes Received:
    1,723
    Location:
    A very long way from the snow
    Baroclinic Eddy. My new ski bum name.
     
  45. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,184
    Likes Received:
    48,149
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  46. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2007
    Messages:
    7,128
    Likes Received:
    5,038
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindy
    Snowing in Andorra

     
  47. IAB

    IAB A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2005
    Messages:
    8,486
    Likes Received:
    7,134
    Location:
    The Shire, Sydney
    For a second there I was hoping you'd spelt "Perisher" wrong.
     
    Ozgirl, Olgreg, nfip and 1 other person like this.
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    Meanwhile in Northern Finland
     
  49. dawooduck

    dawooduck relaxed and comfortable Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2002
    Messages:
    57,201
    Likes Received:
    24,593
    Location:
    East Coast
    Winter is cancelled, come back next month
     
    Interruptedbyfireworks and nfip like this.
  50. Trail Blazer

    Trail Blazer Part of the Furniture

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2000
    Messages:
    10,487
    Likes Received:
    396
    Location:
    Jimi on Weatherzone. Killara, Sydney
    Friday Flat at Thredbo. And that's it