1. SPECIAL NOTE TO NEW WEATHERZONE FOLK

    If you recently registered and have not received a confirmation email - please check your 'Spam or Junk' folders. Especially if your email is Hotmail. More help with confirmation issues

    NOTE: This notice may be closed.

    Dismiss Notice

Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
  3. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2001
    Messages:
    111,185
    Likes Received:
    48,150
    Location:
    Canterbury, Vic
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yes it is.
    Apparently it has a snowy bias in parts of the US, not sure if that affects us.
    But it has fixed GFS’ numerous cyclone biases, improved it’s long term ability a little, etc.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  5. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    Skill scores were only marginaly better in Feb. Improved Physics packages were reported to be subsquently introduced but the details are hard to find.
     
    Claude Cat likes this.
  6. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
  7. Fast Eddie

    Fast Eddie One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    193
    Likes Received:
    470
    Next weekend starting to look interesting with a cold pool meeting with a very decent moisture feed out of the NE. CMC and GFS both showing it on this afternoon’s update. Obviously a long way out but one to watch....
     
    IAB and DiscoStuAU like this.
  8. Nidecker

    Nidecker One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2009
    Messages:
    2,551
    Likes Received:
    1,521
    Location:
    Alpine the dark side of snowboarding
  9. Ozgirl

    Ozgirl A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2007
    Messages:
    7,128
    Likes Received:
    5,039
    Location:
    Sydney/Jindy
    I can cope with that!
     
  10. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    As expected, and fair call at that.
     
  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    1041hPa central pressure on Tas!? I smell a rat...
    EC (& so do I) reckon this scenario can take a hike.
     
    Jellybeans and Fast Eddie like this.
  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yeah EC/EPS is a big fan of the 20-22nd of June period, rather than further along on the 24th.

    27-30th June looking like potential too.
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    GFS mapping a cyclone through the Solomon back-end of next week.
    Yrrr right...
    FV3 going well.:emoji_poodle:
     
    DiscoStuAU likes this.
  14. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Seems legit.

     
  15. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    5,857
    Likes Received:
    3,786
    Seems to predict the ocean will be, to varying degrees, wet.

    Good start, I suppose....
     
    #4065 Karicta, Jun 14, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2019
  16. Rat trap bindings

    Rat trap bindings Addicted Ski Pass: 30 Day

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2017
    Messages:
    154
    Likes Received:
    244
     
    Snow Blowey and skiflat like this.
  17. DidSurfNowSki

    DidSurfNowSki One of them Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2014
    Messages:
    7,411
    Likes Received:
    12,730
    Location:
    Canberra, ACT
    Skunked for the next 10 days or so I reckon.

    Excellent snow making potential late next week.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    I really like the 28-31Jun timeframe for the Ros Wave & LWT coinciding, but my only hesitation is really EC ensembles. It's just not keen.
    In fact it looks blocky AF.
    If we see the EC ensembles flip in the next few days, it could be on.
     
    Snowy Joey, SMSkier and rocketboy like this.
  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
     
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    We may have to wait for this one imo
     
  21. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Honestly, having followed those models for several seasons both here and in North America, I think the teleconnections here way more influence IMO, and NOI though.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Flip.
    ...Now we can listen.
     
  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Some years it's like clockwork with that end of June pre Schoolies dump. But then some years it's 2015/17 and it's hell on ice.

    But if the AAO goes flat and doesn't drop into neg. then I assume it's all bets are off again. The AAO forecast is split on the immediate direction, so don't be surprised if it all fizzes out again.

    Liking next's temps - the bottom of the solstice is very much becoming the coldest period of our winter - about 2 weeks of minimum cold temps then it's a free for all on what the temps actually do.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  25. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Hey JB. in your opinion and study of the facts, do you think the AAO is the golden key teleconnection for snow downunder?

    If neg then it's a near dead certain we will get snow - whereas when flat or positive it's back to pot luck?
     
  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    You don't need a neg AAO to see large snow events, it merely is an indicator of activity (frequency/amplitude) of systems in the Southern Polar region.

    It's a short range climate driver.
     
    Jwintermix, Kletterer and bondibob like this.
  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    I think it’s a bit more complex than that.

    I think it’s best to think of it as the AAO/LWT/30-40S AAM figures show us whether we can see coldfronts and cold nodes. It creates the amplitude needed to bring snow events to Australia.

    And the MJO/IOD/Tropical factors/Tasman SSTAs as potential factors that can bring us moisture.

    As they all work in unity in the end, there is no real need for all of the factors to come our way. A -AAO isn’t required in absolute terms to have a snow event, but it is certainly better than not having the support of stronger amplitude longwave nodes.

    If it’s negative, it’s not dead certain, but it is more likely. And positive it’s less likely.

    As for the golden Teleconnection, the reality is you need some sort of polar support for a cold front. Whether that’s a -AAM deposit which creates a less zonal (west to east) jetstream, or whether it is a strong LWT, or strong AAO supporting a LWT, it doesn’t really matter.

    But as you can see with next week, you can have all the cold in the world, but for a dump you need moisture too. It’s about balance, it always has been.

    So definitely follow the AAO, but follow the LWT and the AAM momentum charts as well.
    As well as the MJO, etc. That’s why I blog, to examine every single factor.
     
    rocketboy and SMSkier like this.
  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Sydney/Illawarra coastal regions could see some moderate, isolated shower activity building in the next few hours. It’s associated with a weak Southerly change, contributing to low level instability.
    Onshore flow to continue into tomorrow.
     
    Scoober and Donzah like this.
  29. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    Clouds are ginormous.

    Bom has us for a left mover storm tomorrow
     
    POW_hungry likes this.
  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    The change is that weak it’s almost stalled adjacent to the Eastern Burbs.

    To the North we’re all clear, East and South is building:
     
    SnowBound likes this.
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    That winter sunset glow providing some extra dimension.
     
    skiflat and Donzah like this.
  32. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    EC’s 00z just looks whack. Really can’t get a grip on its progression...

    It sends a cut off (cold core) low to tropical QLD.
    Also backing a 1039hPa central pressure high over Tas.
     
  33. jungfrau

    jungfrau One of Us

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2013
    Messages:
    569
    Likes Received:
    365
    Will it snow again:confused:
     
  34. The Fallen

    The Fallen One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 7, 2015
    Messages:
    740
    Likes Received:
    1,087
    Location:
    Central Coast
    The shift is coming. 7 to 10 days is my guess. I know, I know, it's a big window but bare with me..... Lake Ayre is at record levels. The last 3 times Ayre has been full, it's a 2m season.

    Temps are always the issue early season and the northern hot season has been late, meaning too much heat being drawn from the North West. The north west cloud is normally a cooling factor during May BUT when it's delayed into June, it warms up the south east. Timing is everything.

    Good news is that the Polar rotation is aggressive so it is looking to push North at every opportunity SO track the highs and pick the gaps. The gaps will deliver .
     
    Snowy Joey, Ret-ro, nfip and 7 others like this.
  35. snowgum

    snowgum One of Us

    Joined:
    May 4, 1999
    Messages:
    3,141
    Likes Received:
    951
    Location:
    vic
    Oh Hope so! Sounds good (ish) xing fingers for a pre sch hol dump in Vic.
     
  36. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    Jindy lake is also low - and that reduces warm evaporation over the Alps. Well that's what I'm told at least 3 times a season. (and once so far in 2019)
     
    IAB and Rick Ross Da Boss like this.
  37. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    I can't stand QandA either, but this is the BBQ thread for open ended questions, discussions and humour in general about the weather and it's processes be they real or not.
     
  38. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Of course, it’s great to have some proper discussion about the drivers. Q&As help us all learn.
     
  39. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,076
    Likes Received:
    17,174
    Location:
    South Co.
    It's ECL time of the year.
    this week looks like it's not going to disappoint.
    May not be textbook but SST's are primed to juice it up in multiples keeping it damp along the coast.
    [​IMG]
     
    POW_hungry and Ted Harper like this.
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2006
    Messages:
    18,076
    Likes Received:
    17,174
    Location:
    South Co.
    soz ^
     
    IAB likes this.
  41. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    well that will ruin any day on the coast.
     
  42. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    QandA as in that god awful show on Monday's at 9.30pm on the our ABC.
     
    Ret-ro likes this.
  43. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    7,881
    Likes Received:
    8,561
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    My opinions upon that matter are best not discussed here......
     
    rocketboy likes this.
  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    15,682
    Likes Received:
    15,140
    Location:
    Canberra
    250 hPa wind plots down South are looking messy and confused atm. May seem aggressive but from South Africa through Southern Indian Ocean and onto W Australia the pattern is lacklustre imo.
     
  45. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    27,573
    Likes Received:
    22,557
    Location:
    woonona
    Brr. Wet. Media! Sydney will be similar
     
    Ted Harper and Kletterer like this.
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  47. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Rat trap bindings and rocketboy like this.
  49. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,399
    Likes Received:
    2,806
    Location:
    Gerroa
    that's good to know - but it's looking pretty weird next Friday.
     
  50. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    17,012
    Likes Received:
    19,091
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Yeah, that's not frontal. It's a coastal trough mixing with the cold pool. It'll change.
     
    Rat trap bindings and rocketboy like this.