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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
So I assume everything from today is GFS-FV3?
It will be interesting to see how that affects output.
"But during the winter, forecasters testing the model expressed serious concerns that its predictions were too cold and snowy. Gross told the Capital Weather Gang in May that these biases were partially corrected but that the Weather Service continues working on them."
Yes it is.
Apparently it has a snowy bias in parts of the US, not sure if that affects us.
But it has fixed GFS’ numerous cyclone biases, improved it’s long term ability a little, etc.
Skill scores were only marginaly better in Feb. Improved Physics packages were reported to be subsquently introduced but the details are hard to find.
NOAA upgrades the U.S. global weather forecast model | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Next weekend starting to look interesting with a cold pool meeting with a very decent moisture feed out of the NE. CMC and GFS both showing it on this afternoon’s update. Obviously a long way out but one to watch....
I can cope with that!
As expected, and fair call at that.
1041hPa central pressure on Tas!? I smell a rat...
EC (& so do I) reckon this scenario can take a hike.
Yeah EC/EPS is a big fan of the 20-22nd of June period, rather than further along on the 24th.
27-30th June looking like potential too.
GFS mapping a cyclone through the Solomon back-end of next week.
FV3 going well.
Seems to predict the ocean will be, to varying degrees, wet.
Good start, I suppose....
Skunked for the next 10 days or so I reckon.
Excellent snow making potential late next week.
I really like the 28-31Jun timeframe for the Ros Wave & LWT coinciding, but my only hesitation is really EC ensembles. It's just not keen.
In fact it looks blocky AF.
If we see the EC ensembles flip in the next few days, it could be on.
We may have to wait for this one imo
I've said it for the last week or so, I am a big fan of the end of month system above as well.
I reckon it's on (RE: 28-31 June). It's inevitable for EPS to follow suit IMO (probably a day or two into July as well though) The teleconnections are all over it, you can just smell it.
The rest of the detail is the blog update
Honestly, having followed those models for several seasons both here and in North America, I think the teleconnections here way more influence IMO, and NOI though.
...Now we can listen.
Some years it's like clockwork with that end of June pre Schoolies dump. But then some years it's 2015/17 and it's hell on ice.
But if the AAO goes flat and doesn't drop into neg. then I assume it's all bets are off again. The AAO forecast is split on the immediate direction, so don't be surprised if it all fizzes out again.
Liking next's temps - the bottom of the solstice is very much becoming the coldest period of our winter - about 2 weeks of minimum cold temps then it's a free for all on what the temps actually do.
Hey JB. in your opinion and study of the facts, do you think the AAO is the golden key teleconnection for snow downunder?
If neg then it's a near dead certain we will get snow - whereas when flat or positive it's back to pot luck?
You don't need a neg AAO to see large snow events, it merely is an indicator of activity (frequency/amplitude) of systems in the Southern Polar region.
It's a short range climate driver.
I think it’s a bit more complex than that.
I think it’s best to think of it as the AAO/LWT/30-40S AAM figures show us whether we can see coldfronts and cold nodes. It creates the amplitude needed to bring snow events to Australia.
And the MJO/IOD/Tropical factors/Tasman SSTAs as potential factors that can bring us moisture.
As they all work in unity in the end, there is no real need for all of the factors to come our way. A -AAO isn’t required in absolute terms to have a snow event, but it is certainly better than not having the support of stronger amplitude longwave nodes.
If it’s negative, it’s not dead certain, but it is more likely. And positive it’s less likely.
As for the golden Teleconnection, the reality is you need some sort of polar support for a cold front. Whether that’s a -AAM deposit which creates a less zonal (west to east) jetstream, or whether it is a strong LWT, or strong AAO supporting a LWT, it doesn’t really matter.
But as you can see with next week, you can have all the cold in the world, but for a dump you need moisture too. It’s about balance, it always has been.
So definitely follow the AAO, but follow the LWT and the AAM momentum charts as well.
As well as the MJO, etc. That’s why I blog, to examine every single factor.
Sydney/Illawarra coastal regions could see some moderate, isolated shower activity building in the next few hours. It’s associated with a weak Southerly change, contributing to low level instability.
Onshore flow to continue into tomorrow.
Clouds are ginormous.
Bom has us for a left mover storm tomorrow
The change is that weak it’s almost stalled adjacent to the Eastern Burbs.
To the North we’re all clear, East and South is building:
That winter sunset glow providing some extra dimension.
EC’s 00z just looks whack. Really can’t get a grip on its progression...
It sends a cut off (cold core) low to tropical QLD.
Also backing a 1039hPa central pressure high over Tas.
Will it snow again
The shift is coming. 7 to 10 days is my guess. I know, I know, it's a big window but bare with me..... Lake Ayre is at record levels. The last 3 times Ayre has been full, it's a 2m season.
Temps are always the issue early season and the northern hot season has been late, meaning too much heat being drawn from the North West. The north west cloud is normally a cooling factor during May BUT when it's delayed into June, it warms up the south east. Timing is everything.
Good news is that the Polar rotation is aggressive so it is looking to push North at every opportunity SO track the highs and pick the gaps. The gaps will deliver .
Oh Hope so! Sounds good (ish) xing fingers for a pre sch hol dump in Vic.
Jindy lake is also low - and that reduces warm evaporation over the Alps. Well that's what I'm told at least 3 times a season. (and once so far in 2019)
I can't stand QandA either, but this is the BBQ thread for open ended questions, discussions and humour in general about the weather and it's processes be they real or not.
Of course, it’s great to have some proper discussion about the drivers. Q&As help us all learn.
It's ECL time of the year.
this week looks like it's not going to disappoint.
May not be textbook but SST's are primed to juice it up in multiples keeping it damp along the coast.
well that will ruin any day on the coast.
QandA as in that god awful show on Monday's at 9.30pm on the our ABC.
My opinions upon that matter are best not discussed here......
250 hPa wind plots down South are looking messy and confused atm. May seem aggressive but from South Africa through Southern Indian Ocean and onto W Australia the pattern is lacklustre imo.
Brr. Wet. Media! Sydney will be similar
compare the 2
suggests strange places not good places.
Nah, that post is RE: System that's 10+ days away.
that's good to know - but it's looking pretty weird next Friday.
Yeah, that's not frontal. It's a coastal trough mixing with the cold pool. It'll change.