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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As mentioned above (twitter post) the LWT is undergoing dilation as the result of a potential split in the strat PV. IMO it's not likely to carry the amplitude in that prog, through it's circulation.
     
  2. PowWow

    PowWow Hard Yards

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    yr.no starting to get me excited for next week... new thread?
     
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  3. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Just curious.

    Why is the mean so much lower than the maximum and so close to the minimum?

    Is it a per day thing?

    In perisher 12th -17th, so might be slightly very very interested in this prediction period:nerd:
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It does look like it’s pushing out a fair bit. Which could weaken it as it cuts from the TPV. Or it could continue to push and keep it’s amplitude into SE Aus. It certainly looks like it’s developing, rather than weakening from my perspective, unless I am missing something here. Something to watch in my opinion.
     
  5. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    So the maximum is the the most snowy outlier in the entire EPS ensemble.
    The blue line at the top is indicating that outlier or the maximum.

    The dark blue line is indicating the 90% percentile of the ensemble, so 90% of ensemble members are below that number.

    The mean itself is obviously the all the members calculated together and averaged.

    So the more extreme outliers of the ensemble are going to be further away from the mean, because they individually show a lot of snow. But relative to the rest of the ensemble members, it is isolated.

    This is why this chart is quite useful at this time period. It shows trend, which this period has some of.
     
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  6. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spag likes this period. Thread worthy. IMO. I'd kick it off, but I'd curse it. LOL

    [​IMG]

     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    As I say, happy to start one this arvo IF it's still there.
    IMO, I haven't seen enough trend (1.5-2 days of trend) to warrant it yet.

    It needs 2-3 days of Ensemble trend (and some GFS interest) in my camp, to get a guernsey.
     
  8. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    The other thing is this thing on the 7th.



    It’s not looking great for the lower resorts.
    EC quoting average 1600m SL and GFS 1800m.
    But it could be another 10-15cm top up for Perisher/Upper slopes of the other Big 5 resorts.
    Particularly if EC holds.

    The real cold remains south throughout however, and there’s still a few days for it to downgrade.
     
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  9. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ensemble members are all over the place with 200 hPa streamlines.
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    As you would expect.
     
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  11. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    I'm with POW H on this. Peaks too early IMO.

     
  12. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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  13. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I didn’t say that it had anything to do with that. The 10-14th looks better from a coldfront standpoint.
    This is a trough with a fair bit of precipitation signalled by both models.
    The actual cold node slides.
    It’s completely plausible that it fades away. But it is also possible that it stays.
    Something to watch for the better or the worse.
     
  14. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Be positive. You have permission to ruin my trip.
    Heading:
    'Astro's Redemption'
     
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  15. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    Sorry. Don't understand reply. We are all agreeing the 7th slides. Yes ?
     
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Does this help you understand what I am saying?
     
  17. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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    Yeah Nah.

    7th base builder that will get north P open

    10th-14th consistent overnight top ups
     
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  18. Astro66

    Astro66 Still looking for a park in Thredbo Ski Pass: Gold

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    546 line, with northerly feed, is a Hail Mary. IMO. But maybe .......... up high.
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    546 translates to up high. It does look a bit on the unorthodox side, which is why it would be a good idea to wait a day or two to see if it continues. But there have been far wackier scenarios than this one, at this far out IMO.
     
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  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think the recent strong cross Equatorial flow - West Indian Ocean may be causing difficulties in predicting propogation and the general Geostrophic balance.
     
  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Must be those damn Albino Whales migrating again...
     
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  22. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Cetacean Wave propogation.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Could be #3 WA snow event on Thursday for ya @blowfin
    Major models in agreement and pointing to snow above 800m on Thursday night, Friday AM.

    Albany meteogram (GFS):

     
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  24. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    July 12th to 15th looks good on 00' GFS. Its gonna change 100 times but if we get anything near todays run will be great. All depends on the trailing high bending against its will. Hows the ENS looking @POW_hungry ?
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS is only a whisker into it (timing is out and ensembles are not in).
    EC Ensemble not published yet, it's downloading now but yolo... new thread is up.
     
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  26. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Impressive, 3 times in a year - wonder what the record is down there for numbers of times a season?
     
  27. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Discussed argued at length on the previous page. Given there's no AWS/reporting/human obs on the summit it's difficult to discern but I bet a lot of occurrences are missed in the dead of night, extreme weather inhibiting human obs etc.

    BUT, I think 2-3 times a year is 'normal'. IMO there's been a bigger (+'ve) anomaly in recent years (maybe 5-6 occurrences/year). WA polar frontal peaks are a thing of recent years IMO.

    Perhaps this helps answer your question:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-04/most-snow-days-ever-recorded-in-wa/7902412
     
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  28. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Daughter of a friend was driving from Denmark to Albany early the other morning, hit a patch of black ice and ended up in the paddock. Never heard of that before.
     
  29. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, way more dangerous than the iPhone in her hand and the time, I am sure.

    Only black ice I know of in WA is sold in the back alley of the OBH.
     
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  30. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    download.png Nice looking ull tracks nw tassie then cut down the spline. Worth keeping eye
    out for this one.

    Someone asked about percentiles jack did a good vid on the ens forecast tool.



    Its been touted a meso model needed. The ultra high res swiss model can be made avaible for oz. it just needs somebody to pay the server costs.
    Just shoot Joerg Kachelmann a message.
     
  31. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterdays hour of wickedness
     
  32. vibe++

    vibe++ One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Bloody cold this morning at work.
     
  33. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    You've been chosen.
     
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  34. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some of that action at 20 West and 30 East would be nice.
     
  35. zac150

    zac150 One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I will accept full credit if these systems come off as we will be in Thredbo from Friday to provide a private live feed of events.

    Also as we moved our standard holiday from late July to the school holidays and just purchased a very nice new touring / powder day set up for the plus.

    So yes, we put all our credits on snow and hopefully we have been nice enough to hurt to deliver!
     
  36. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    EC looking nice for good posible follow ups.
    ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t500-1561896000-1561896000.gif ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t700-1561896000-1561896000.gif ecmwf-deterministic-aus-vort500_z500-1561896000-1561896000.gif
     
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  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    WA in for another polar soaking.
     
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  38. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Good for WA Wheatbelt!! Will help me with my line of business
     
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  39. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  40. Adelaidometer

    Adelaidometer Addicted

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  41. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    "Must get gasoline to El Chapo's boys"
     
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  43. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Live wires on the starboard beam..
     
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  44. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Ooh la la. A Unicorn ?
     
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  45. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think its a cement truck isn't it. Possibly going to the same place.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Source - WZ
    Interestingly, hottest 'fin year' on record... (not the fin year bit, but running trend with annual records.)
     
  47. Mister Tee on XC Skis

    Mister Tee on XC Skis A Local Ski Pass: Silver

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    If we VIC XC skiers don't get a 20 cm natural base by the 3rd week of July then Houston we have a problem.
     
  48. Ramshead

    Ramshead One of Us

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    I work in the Ch 10 newsroom in Sydney and I just asked our weatherman Tim Bailey when it's going to snow and he kind of sneered in an evil way. Carry on.
     
  49. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Off topic
    Those hail pics are awsome. Queen of the South on netflix is top shelf.
    free on kodi also with exodus redux.
     
  50. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Reminds me of 8th July 2015
    [​IMG]
     
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