Port Beach, WA is in for another long week. 2-2.5m swell inbound, after the 4-5m swell is broken up by Garden Island & Rotto.
Booooooooo! He’s still killing it. Watching him perform the weather report (present is an inadequate verb) is to see true theatre. He really puts on a show.
I miss @Gototakahashi 's predictions. Even if he/she was laughing behind the screen at everyone's reactions to the madness. Where have you gone? What are the whales doing this week? We're waiting
I’m not Goto, but I come bearing pretty good news. My latest long term snow outlook is out here: https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/07/2nd-july-australia-on-long-term.html Bottom line: July looks reasonably good, better than the past June. It could get even better towards the end of the month if the MJO aligns with us. I am looking at systems obviously around the 11-15th July here, but also looking at 18-21st, and 24th-28th as potential dates for snow-bearing systems. Thanks all again
Just looking, it would have been great to get the top up from the system clipping Tassie at the moment, 600km further north and it would have been nice for Buller and BB Maybe a little further than 600km, but it has done a little bit for Mawson
@Jellybeans..lovin ' your blog The seasonal set up had me thinking temps would be the least of our worries it was always going to be about the precip ... which IMO discounts the chance of a July wash out this year. (An increasingly common feature of winters these days- i think you could argue we have already had it. ) . Spag and MJO watching has the end of july in the frame (good chance of good snowfall in last week of July/ first week of august...who would pick that) . However I am not prepared to back the return for the end of August
This anom for SW WA tomorrow evening appears to be going strength to strength. Some very big rainfall totals with upwards of 40mm due along coastal centres tomorrow, alone. We should see BoM SWW issued for the SW region, posted this evening.
Thanks. Agreed about the moisture. The June washout in my opinion was more symptomatic of the fact it was not really in “winter”. I felt like that system was “too early” for the winter mechanisms to be fully in place. There’s a reason why it is well known to feature rain in many Junes (and Septembers). Yep, I reckon that last week of July and the first 10 days of August are shaping up to be quite good. Something I (and I am sure others too) will keep a close eye on.
Here we go... As I alluded to last week, we're looking down the barrel of a brief decoupled Polar Vortex over the next week. Whilst it's not exactly uncommon mid-winter for the Norther Hemi, it's quite a feat for the SH Polar region to act like it's Northern counterpart in winter. The decoupling of the PV looks to largely broaden the LWT and directly affects the AAO/SAM, supporting very strong anoms in, and around the polar region. Namely intense winter systems void of the South-Central Pacific quadrant of the pole. Which evidently impacts practically no one but holds weight to increased circulation around the South Pole. This decoupling looks set to disrupt the LWT but only momentarily according to the major LR & climatic models. For those of you playing at home, -'ve SAM/AAO values represent (in short) increased polar systems through the mid-lats and sub polar regions of our hemi.
http://www.janebunn.net/mt-hotham http://www.janebunn.net/falls-creek Ms Bunn seems to think July 12-14th will bring some decent snow to Hot Ham and Falls. Of course that is a long way off but hope springs eternal. I am planning to do a snow trip on July 14-16th.
Agreed about the split vortex, though it should be noted that it looks quite weak, but it’s coupling to the TPV seems good. Unlike the NH SSW mess over the past season, this one looks like a pretty ripe coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, given the drop in the -AAO. It’s not a strong split at all (as you would expect for the SH), but it seems to have an impact at least for a week or so. I’d call it a win. You’d want another disturbance to keep the pattern going however. Also, that stratospheric wave over Australia on the 8th you point to, would be at least a significant factor in what helps the coldfronts come over the 10-15th July period, via the the strat-tropo feedback loop.
Also touched on last week and linked to the above state of the PV is a strat warming event progged by global models through the Southern IO region over the next few days. It's hallmark for additional cold snap activity in the region. For me, this is a broadscale shift in our winter pattern for weeks to come.
This site would be of great use to you @POW_hungry : https://www.stratobserve.com/ I think I have shared it before, but I only realised that Zac has changed it for the SH Polar Vortex. Certainly looks like a bit of a disturbance with elongation from the Pacific to Africa, but looks to weaken after a few days. Certainly looks like there are some wave-2 amplitudes for several days that are causing the disturbance upon the SPV. Looks like there is something there, and it would be a key part of the 11-15th July system. Not quite sure it has any longer term effects. It could also be behind those weird moisture transports as a even weirder side note. Plenty of tools to tinker with in there. @Kletterer and @Jwintermix might be interesting too, in addition to whomever wishes to take a look. He’s done a great job here.
The long range and mid-range forecasting capability on this forum has really amped up this season. It's really, really good.
And I thought it was only to do with reduced sunspots......... Great info, keep it coming @POW_hungry @Jellybeans @Jwintermix
Meanwhile in Japan parts of Kyushu have nearly had Sydney's total annual rainfall since last Friday. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...evacuation-centers-safe-areas-due-heavy-rain/
Nicely cold morning in Melbourne, 5.3 degrees was our lowest point (so far) at 7:30am. It looks like fog is beginning to roll in from the East and if it does it should put a cap on temperatures for as long as it sticks around, could be a cold day.
Quite a snowy week ahead for me: Keep in mind that the BOM tends to underestimate cold and snowfall for my altitude and latitude (Weather.com is often more accurate)...hmmm, I wonder why!
1042 central pressure high progged SE of Tas tomorrow. A good sign of cold, dense air in our region. Although, it will be trumped only by the 1043 central pressure High in the South Pacific today:
Another cold morning in old Melbourne town today. Dipped to 3.5 in the city, much lower than the 5 forecast. A nice brisk walk to the office!
Are you suggesting they wheel him out of the old person home and feed him a line to get the required level of stoke, every time there is snow? I give him his dues, he has and has had an very long career by tv standards
