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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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  2. Val Desire

    Val Desire Hard Yards

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    I know the threads and all of us followers are now focusing on the juicy prospect of snow NEXT weeknd of 10th to 14th July, but just interested on an update of what to expect THIS weekend...
    How much rxxn and snow loss, do you think? Any snowfall in this system?
     
  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Very little, if any precip this weekend thanks to a well positioned High.
    Sunday evening it changes. With snow above 1800m on Monday, rain below IMO. In the vicinity of 10-20mm Monday.
     
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  4. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    9.7C for Albany, WA at 12:30pm LOCAL with coldies on the Sat pic. Bound to be flakage on top of Bluff Knoll Today IMO.
     
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  5. Val Desire

    Val Desire Hard Yards

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    That sounds OK. Not too much loss before snow does come (everything crossed of course ) next week?
    9 deg and raining lunchtime in Leura (Blue Mts) today - pretty mis. Oh well, time to head back home to balmier climes of Nrthn Syd....
     
  6. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Is there anything in the pipeline looking further abroad or will we have to wait till next weekends system is out of the way for the models to get a grip?
    PS the weather guys in here do an amazing job, thanks again:emoji_call_me:

    My situation is i cant get down in August, i have the time to go down from July 12-15 or 19-22.
    It looks like the snow will be great the first weekend however the terrain open (perisher) looks limited at the moment.
    Thoughts please?
     
  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Next big shot is in the 19-23rd July window IMO. Long way to go yet through, the brick wall is in the form of next week's big +'ive anom system.
     
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  8. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    Snowy Joey, nfip and POW_hungry like this.
  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, been on the cards for about a week now. Mentioned HERE.
    Global models having a hard time with it, I think. Lots of divergence, lots of anoms in our region.
    More to come IMO.
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’d expect a lower AAO through to the end of the month IMO.
    A month of big systems, particularly in the mid-month period.
    As @Kletterer would say, the year of anomalies.

    Certainly a thing to note is that the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere is responding to this warming more than the higher parts. So the connection between this stratospheric disturbance and the tropospheric vortex makes more sense.
     
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  11. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    When l followed michael ventrice on twitter for the NH Stratospheric warming last NH winter he forecast a surface response in as little as a week. I noticed this SH warming has taken all of June to develop and the AAO,was positive all of June
     
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  12. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s peculiar. They do take some time to develop, a few weeks normally.
    Stratospheric-tropospheric feedbacks are one of the hardest things to forecast IMO.
    But thanks to the SHEM vortex being surrounded by ocean, it is probably more predictable too.
    The connection between the strat and troposphere is certainly interesting and certainly worth a watch.
    And it looks like it is favouring us for cold events fortunately.
     
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  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    In my understanding the SSW events in our region need to be big in order to disrupt PV's, polar circ, Rossby Waves and the like.
    This Strat Warming event is line ball 'effective' in that and doesn't meet the SSW thresholds you frequently see in the North during Boreal winters.
     
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  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah agreed it’s definitely not a SSW. But thanks to the uniqueness of the SH vortex setup, even the disturbance has an impact on the AAO it seems.
     
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  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think that in general these last few months have been a time for questioning where you lay your faith or how malleable we consider accepted teleconnections.
     
  16. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    thanks for that feedback 'guys'. .
    Any ideas what makes the AAO go strongly negative?
    and
    solar minimum as a 'teleconnection'?
    lets add lunar cycles . medium range
    and ?
     
  17. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Variety of things.
    A stratospheric disturbance or an SSW is a big one.
    An injection of heat and instability from a tropospheric level could do it.
    A large push of momentum down from the extratropics can also change the dynamics of it.
     
  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    RRWT, large RMM MJO signals, Tropopause/Strat warming events, even El Nino Modoki... you name it, they're all AAO teleconnections.
     
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  19. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Look at the 'wax/wane' of the strat throughout the Sub-Polar region.
    It's come and gone, and come again in the last fortnight as you say @crikey .
    It's really trying.
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think teleconnections show us the way, guide us to find a trend.
    If we believe that teleconnections are some magic wand, we are never going to fully appreciate what they can do for us in terms of long range forecasting.
    They aren’t a precise tool, but I think we as a forum are doing it the best in the entire Asia-Pacific region AFAIK. And it’s a credit to the work you and @POW_hungry are doing. There isn’t a whole lot of research done in our region, so it can get hard at times. So it’s an achievement in my opinion.

    It’s certainly a work in progress as a science however.
     
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  21. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    l believe l read recently that strong mslp anomalies will do it..And there certainly has been that
    But l take 'klettrers' point. To keep an open mind and open investigation.on the hows and whys of teleconnections
    I gotta go its late. Thanks for the BBQ.

    .
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong height anomalies can be construed as both working under the accords of the AAO suite of teleconnections, and also under the accords of more extratropical influences. MSLP can certainly be influenced by extratropical influences to a higher degree particularly however
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    SSW warming events will disrupt circulation of the PV and shift colder air off the pole.
    A colder upper atmosphere into the sub pole/mid-lats will contribute greatly to strong MSLP anoms. i.e. Cold air is more dense so you'll find extraordinarily large MSLP anoms as a result - hence the 1042hPa high SE of Tas today.
     
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  24. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    nfip likes this.
  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Modoki has me intrigued lately.
     
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  27. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Possibly one of the most extreme places on the planet.
     
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  28. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Massive meteor event last night they say...
     
  29. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. Nightskywatcher

    Nightskywatcher One of Us

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    Missed it because of the cloud. Can you get them to run it again on a clear night?
     
  31. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep, it's underway.
    Still doesn't look to have the intensity of it's Northern counterparts in the Boreal winter phase, but it's there. Typically a SSW event is as 20-25C drop in a week. This is about 10-15C.

     
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  32. crikey

    crikey Hard Yards Ski Pass: Gold

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    How awesome. Will you run a dedicated thread considering its rarity?
    When was the last polar vortex split?
     
  33. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    FWIW Events like this are uncommon, but not rare.
    You would see some sort of stratospheric disturbance like this every winter on average IMO.
     
  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Woarh, dunno!? This one looks stronger than anything in the last 2-3 years, at least.

    @crikey it's not a well documented occurrence, like it is in the North. Given the landmass that surrounds the Northern sub-pole we rarely see much influence from PV split other than a strong anom or two. Far more commonly covered in the NH.

    If you're keen to jive up the discussion on it, you're welcome to start a new thread.
     
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  35. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    If you are talking for July, you are probably right. But you often see something like this in September, as part of the weakening of the SPV in the Spring.

    I don’t really have any good records though, so if you do, feel free to correct me.

    The dynamics here are somewhat different to a September warming however, a (kinda) split versus a displacement event, if that’s what you referring to?
     
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  36. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, I don;t have the records either but I have monitored it closely over the last few years.
    Just purely from an observational POV.
     
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  37. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix Addicted

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    Mark 18-19 as maybe the decent chance,
    strong cold front
    .

    Splits are brought on by rossby waves, Sometimes
    V/strong waves pass above the thin layer from the troposphere,
    to the stratosphere @ the pole. The waves disrupt the PV.
     
  38. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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    Discussion here:

    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/southern-hemisphere-polar-vortex-split.85116/
     
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  39. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    I think a thread on the 18th 19th is needed.
    Looking minty as
     
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  40. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    Agreed. @Jellybeans alluded to this follow up a while back.
     
  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    I personally reckon it'll fade (ridge) and the reinforcing system 21/22nd looks the jazz, nearer the LWT peak.
    Above all, EC ensembles look good, but needs support and trend.
     
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  42. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC going for an ear-popping 927hPa (GFS - 920hPa) central pressure low @ 150W Longitude, for Monday.
    Living proof of the PV displacement and circulation derailment.
    [​IMG]
     
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  43. Slovenski

    Slovenski Early Days

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    Hi everyone, just need to share my experience at Perisher/Blue Cow last week. Planned to stay until today but it all turned to crap at Blue Cow on that fantastic sunny Friday morning.
    My trust in some old ski boots turned out badly when I lost control skiing from the Early Starter to the Summit Quad Chairlift. Right boot broke & ended upside down with a sore ankle which later turned out to be broken. A big thank you to the skier chap that alerted the lifties & my son at the Summit Chair to my predicament. Shortly afterwards a medic skied down to havealook, helped me get to the lift & up to the summit where I was put into a sled & transported over to the main building & into the ski tube. Staff at Perisher Medical Centre assesed, xrayed the foot & then gave me the bad news. WOW, I never thought it would happen to me so a big heads up for skiers who have their own gear to check it & if in doubt, DON'T USE!
    All the Perisher & Medical Centre staff displayed supreme proffesionalism & I cannot speak highly enough of their conduct. Persher also provided a gift voucher to cover the $'s for remaining lift days for myself & my son.
    All told, a great experience, just a shame I will spend next 6 weeks or so relying on a wheelchair but it all could have ended up a lot worse.
    Cheers everyone & enjoy the snow, plenty coming by looks of things!
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Bugger on the break. Sorry to hear.
    A great place to put your trip experience is in the respective resort Trip Report thread:
    https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/perisher-2019-trip-reports-pics-updates-conditions.83520/page-38
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Best wishes for a swift recovery.
     
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  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Everyone just take a moment to appreciate the sheer beauty in the amplitude of systems progged in circulation of the South Polar region at the end of next week.
    That is a BEAST of a node moving through the Southern IO due around ~22nd July.
    [​IMG]
     
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  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ERA Interim updates on Tuesday. Will be interesting to see whats on it re 22nd.
     
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  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Last Fridays run fwiw.
     
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  49. Sadie

    Sadie Chk Chk Boom Moderator

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    Sorry to hear :cry: Will you need surgery?

    Head over to https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/forumites-their-injuries.79500/page-33 where we are all discussing our injuries. I’m coming back from breaking my ankle in November. Best wishes to you for a speedy recovery.

    We’ve also got a Perisher sub forum that might pass your time in your recovery too.

    Oh and welcome to the forums @Slovenski :)
     
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  50. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    A front of some kind, with lower temps and precipitation of the transparent variety lower down in Perisher carpark.
    Clear band now coming across main range, so a ehile yet before the white precipitation is forecast.
     
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