Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

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  1. gareth_oau

    gareth_oau Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Even though I’m stuck at home and wont be seeing any snow any time soon, I just wanted you all to know that Im still working hard for you and hoping for the best

     
  2. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The 93hpa low just to the west is even more ear-popping ;)
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    According to EC...

    JMA....

    ICON...


    Shits about to get real nodal in the next fortnight. All agree in some shape or form.
    End of July is up for a facelift IMO.
     
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  4. doogasnow

    doogasnow One of Us

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    Pow - so the above charts you’ve posted are basically representing an active period of strong cold fronts for second half of July?
     
  5. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Somewhat.
    This is the circulation of the upper level (500mb) trough's (LWT) driving the frontal shortwave patterns.
    There's likely to be peak in this pattern around mid-July, (-'ive AAO at it's peak).

    Theoretically, the next few weeks should be particularly active in winter frontal systems through our region. Lets see how this week pans out an revisit.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    GFS 06z is seeking @Donzah acceptance.
    If it's there tomorrow on Ensembles we'll start breaking bedrock.
     
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  7. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Can someone please explain to me why some spag runs look like this?
     
  8. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks like a glitch to me.
    21 members of the GEFS ensemble are on the hooch.
    What do you mean you mean by 'some'? As in it happens from time to time or some of the timeframes are showing that?
     
  9. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    100% of the ensemble members agreeing on a negative AAO this week.. Nice.. we need it
     
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  10. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    It seems that the next update will be right again.
    Was like it last night, fixed on this morning update, same again this arvo?

    Shouldn't it look more like this from another thread?
     
  11. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    It does it during updates of the Ensembles
     
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  12. NathanC

    NathanC Hard Yards

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    For this weeks system Friday night/Saturday morning will i have dramas driving from Sydney to jindy? Leaving from Parramatta area around 10pm. Looks to be cold and some forecast saying snow Canberra outskirts...
     
  13. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That'll explain it.
    I've never seen it using this LINK.
    But I've never used that viewer you're using @bullet
     
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  14. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah you may
    I'd expect a chance of snow from Goulburn south.
    Around lake george is a spot that seems to be a bit sketchy
    Then the drive in from Cooma and across Varneys range
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    It'll be fine.
    GFS has over-cooked it IMO.
    Snow settling down to ~1000m Saturday AM IMO.
     
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  16. NathanC

    NathanC Hard Yards

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    Will be an exciting drive, ill be getting the mrs to take photos if anything white happens on the drive for the Observation thread
     
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  17. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Makes sense it's fixed now:)

    Thats link is where it was from, under the "animation" tab at the bottom.
     
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  18. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Boo hiss
     
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  19. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    On the way out of Berridale top of Varneys is 1150m and stays above 1100 through to Eucumbene turnoff
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Question was for Sydney to Jindy. Via Monaro would be fine...
    Enough traffic at that time to not be an issue of accumulation IMO.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just reckon you’ll need to keep an eye out on a change as models are little divergent for that period.
     
  22. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    at 3am in the morning...varneys can be a issue
     
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  23. bywong_yuki

    bywong_yuki One of Us

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    As the others have previously mentioned Varneys will be the best chance of encounting snow on the road. As its a more westerly system I don't think there would be much if any snow west of the divide esp on the Monaro.

    At that time of the morning by far the biggest hazards will be Kangaroos, deer, goats and wombats. Hope for the windiest, wettest weather possible. If you come across a blue Scoda doing 80km/h in the wee hours of the morning, happy if give me a litte honk.
     
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  24. robbo mcs

    robbo mcs One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well you can’t go on the monaro all the way to Jindy. The monaro goes to bombala. You have to go on kosciuszko rd through Berridale, and as mentioned that road reaches 1150m surface elevation over Varneys range. Also, there is actually very little traffic on that road after midnight. So to the. OP take care for that stretch;)

    As others mentioned, at that time of morning roos, wombats and deer are more of a danger though.:eek:
     
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Argh sorry, we were talking the same thing. Jury is still out about levels yet so I reckon OP might wanna sit tight on it for now, otherwise no reason not to take it slow and carry chains JIC.

    EC this morning (and GFS to a lesser degree) favour another frontal system due through the 17th, with potentially another 10-20cm top up.
     
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  26. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. Scoober

    Scoober One of Us

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    I think there maybe a quick 5-10com on the 17th-18th but the 21st-24th period looks to have great potential. Do you have any ENS @POW_hungry for this period? Long way out but potential for systems is strong.
     
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  28. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Will post some this arvo. Ensembles are struggling beyond 10 days so the 20-24th is still a bit loose on Ensembles. LWT survives though, and often prevails in times like this (strong -‘I’ve AAO) so don’t be surprised if we’re not seeing much at the moment.
     
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  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC 10 day outlook-
     
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  30. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not an Anomaly to ignore imo.
     
  31. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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  32. Donzah

    Donzah Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Compare 10pm Tuesday vs 10 am friday
     
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  33. dogski

    dogski Hard Yards

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    Well you could say almost identical
     
  34. crikey

    crikey Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    would be happier to see more precip' signal pencilled in.
    Tasmania, Victoria look guaranteed the goods but NSW ?
    Hard to tell without the latitude markers on those BOM charts for the 10th -13th
     
  35. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

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    Not very often that VIC gets more than NSW.
     
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  36. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    embedded troughs.
    # vinegar stroke
     
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    22nd
    [​IMG]
    GEFS favouring some sweet-loving for our region in the Ensembles window.


    Whilst EC favour's the 21-22nd for a West Oz polar slap.
     
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  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Porn Hub
    South Polar circ is locked & loaded.
    Not sure the one approaching South Africa will make it to us with such gusto but that's a biggie, due to us in the SE around 1-4 August.

    GFS:


    EC:
     
  39. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jane going for a good week in her latest update:

     
  40. nfip

    nfip Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Came up in my fb feed just now.
    This day 2015.
    Satellite Porn.
    Boom.

    [​IMG]
     
  41. Ubiquitous Steve

    Ubiquitous Steve A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Oh no ...not more b*****y snow.......!
     
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  42. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. Was right on cue.
     
  44. Rick Ross Da Boss

    Rick Ross Da Boss One of Us

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  45. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    22-23 July coming into view on EC Ensembles, looking solid, as anticipated.
    Needs a day or two of trend and it might get a guernsey.
     
  46. bullet

    bullet One of Us

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    Here's hoping Sunday 21st #grainofsalt;)
     
  47. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Its Back-----
     
  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    I am finding it tricky to see anything (trends or support) beyond next week but ensembles well and truly signalling big events in the 20-24th window but in and out of consciousness over whether it influences the WA coast or SE Aus.

    Nonetheless, it's looking beefy.
    GFS cut-off for the South East, 22nd.
    [​IMG]

    EC ensembles throwing love behind the 23rd ( a day behind GFS Ens).

    Alas, I think I wanna see some run-to-run agreement before it's half a given.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  50. Belly

    Belly A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    Some more snow likely around 22-24, maybe...
     
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