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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
Yeah, if it’s still there 00Z up goes a thread.
Still a lot of movement from run to run, there will be fronts a plenty, putting a time frame on each is pretty hard atm!!
Ensembles will guide us.
Deterministics are coughing up nothing but moving targets.
Should we get the train wreck pictures ready in case we need to post them?
EPS mean shows some sort of event 24-26th July, but nothing great.
GEFS shows the 23-25th as something, but mostly a clipper for the Alps inbound from WA.
Plenty of time for it to fluctuate though.
Because we should always give the underdog a participation certificate.
ALL models are under dogs at 240hrs
Yeah true that.
It's very easy to be negative.
I think you should let people there observe it and not judge it based on the opening of a road.
Hokkaido.....one metre events !Omg......that would close all our resorts for days.
Yes one cannot argue that snow depths have increased.....but we were down to soil in many places from memory?Team Bears are visualising an Hokkaido events....
Beat the drums sing along the vibe is all important ...Folk say there is much snow so it must be so.....beat the drums and sing along!
Why? what did you think was forecast POW was spot on?
seems to me someone is rather put out cause he cant be there??
Snow depth accepted as three fizzers end to end assuming one fizzer is 10cm long ..
3x10=.30cms. In optimal sites .....well that’s amazing accumulation over almost 24hours...
We need a giant fizzer of two metre length perhaos to record this amazing snow dump still in progress !
Vibe? You are the vibe killer
You talk about hokkaido. I can guarantee that the quality of the snow and skiing right now in any of the main NSW / Vic resorts is a whole lot better than it currently is in hokkaido
Settle down Steve. The "mega dump" is only a prediction. What actually happens can be quite different. It it pans out exactly as predicted that's a bonus. Come up here to cyclone country, in many cases you actually want the predictions to be wrong.
Really don't get Aussies comparing southern hemisphere with the north . I'n from Northern Italy , I don't , I won't . Irrational , illogical , nonsensical . 30 cm for us it's a dusting , with 50cm we don't bother going skiing ( too little) . We call a dump 1m and above. You ( we) should be happy we even have some snow in Australia, and don't get me started with snow forecasts , weather is complicated ,there is no guarantee it's going to happen what was forecast .
Another armchair skier
Well the vibe is in the usual establishments right after a day of freshies
Seems so.. me I just ski
Some impressively high cloud out to the South East atm.
Do you have any numbers for snowfall amounts tonight for hills around Wanaka/Queenstown?
There's a few serious blobs that could produce 30-50mm precip in 3 hours from what I see around Wanaka?
Will have a look after a big roast dinner and some Wolfblass.
We have the French exchange teachers (2) staying here with us for the next couple of weeks, whilst the 20 or so French kids are with school families. Just finished a roast ourselves here and onto 2nd bottle of Vasse Felix Cab. Perfect time for roasts!!
I vote that this was the most useful , incisive excellent post of the Day. It provided sincere useful information in a time of ubiquitous crisis. The 82 plus 10 cm , 92cm fall has some in a spin. Well done POW... I knew the button was there somewhere.
Young Tenants out the back have their family here from Nepal atm. Lovely humble folks. Seems strange to us that they are not into big peaks .
Bit like the Balinese who never used to surf back in the 70s/80s. Dem spirits.
Without any fact, I reckon the Saddle (TC) could get two feet tonight.....is high enough.
Although, just looked at this on Metservice.
Looks like may be slightly further south and penetrate..........Remarks?
I observed a lot of smiles at Hotham today
Great timing with the SIA demo day!! Why had I not been made aware of this before?
GFS siding with a return to near neutral -AAO over the coming week.
Is this bad boy still looking good and running on time?
22-26 July system has a thread up and running.
Oh, thought that one was 1-4 August
The mention of the 1-4AUG is under South Africa in that prog. Miles away.
But here it is at 7 o'clock, still ~12 days out (from the 19th Jul). 2-6August is now my guess.
Copy that, cheers.
ACC G has a precip ' signal for the SE corner of OZ, wednesday 17th July ..afternoon into evening
540 thickness over the alpine region for that time slot, wednesday evening
536 over Baw baw
So ? Rain or snow during that time slot, for the alps?
Decent anom with a ridge under it.
Why is your text so small..?
"Should have gone to Specsavers"
There’s always one that has to be different
Looking like the AAO is due to rebound to neutrality with a little more certainty (the below will update).
Positively, it looks to stay low-slung, below 0, for a prolonged period (possibly).
Gfs cutting shapes
Looks like a glorious morning up in the hills:
Terrible quality but Hotham is looking nice:
Not much in the way of NW'ly moisture influence any time soon (until we get a hint of MJO on the next pass, if we're lucky).
Well was it a fizzer...
Thoughts on winds at hot ham this weekend? Taking a group of 40 or so beginners up and winds seemed to have jumped to wind hold speeds over night according to BOM.
Partial lunar eclipse this morning just before sunrise - about 6.45.
What’s the vibe for second half next week? Interesting looking period
There's a thread here that talks to next week...
Looking into my crystal ball the ensembles (EC/GFS) keep signalling a cut-off low in Southern Aust over the next 2 weeks. I think we'll see a sizey one if the flippant sub polar jets can be believed.
It could be WA, it could be SE Aus, but just a general obs of the 500mb LR ensembles really.