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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
This is what i like to see in the indo a big fat inflated high.
Forcing on the lower belt.
Yesterdays ERA Interim. August 8th - 13th has been getting a bit of attention lately.
That seems rather logical progression wise.
Yeah i agree. Eddy missbehaves sometimes though.
Fello camper talked about some sort of eclipse - I just assumed he had experienced a normal high altitude "dream". Appears I was a complete numnut!
This period is looking quite strong in recent days. Keep the eyes peeled (2-5 Aug), IMO.
I am seeing a cut-off low in recent runs.
GEPS and EPS playing ball for something on the 2/3rd of August.
First timer here - fingers crossed for 2-6 August as I'm heading down then!
You will be ok, we are there.. Always snows when I come.
My long range snow outlook for snowfall in Australia
Looking at systems around:
- 27-29 July
- 1-5 August
- 9-14 August
- 19-23 August
I am also looking at a poor late July and early August (per the well-discussed +AAO), but also improving snowfall chances in mid-late August. Seems distant, but the season always comes around fast. A few top-ups here and there until then IMO.
BTW - it’s 50 years since my avatar pix was snapped at a cost of some 100 billion dollars.
fyi: wikipedia has an excellent archive version in full size here
Isn't it fake. Malcom Roberts says it is and Malcom would know.
Im off to queenstown in a few weeks....lookin a bit thin over there.....can anyone give me some hope?
Maybe something Tuesday week, other than that not much.
Circa 12th Aug. could be a goer imo.
Could be big. My eyes are firmly upon it, will be a little while until we see some modelling though.
Some EC Ensemble members are very excited about it. I detect a slight whiff of COL on this one for some reason.
with neither MJO or AAO action anywhere on the horizon - August could be slim pickings. A repeat of June?
COL = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Col_(meteorology) ??
Cut Off Low.
If you run through all 50 Ensemble members there is a dominant feature on this one- its one to watch.
RRWT 'aint far away in that period.
Such a cluster fart of variables beyond the support of MJO & AAO drivers. \
To suggest it'll be a ghost town in the SE, void of snow-bearing systems in our region is to ignore the fact it's 'mid-winter' for us.
Take this Member # 39 plot with a grain of salt. Its bare bones biased data output at this stage but wouldnt that be lovely ?
RRWT = https://www.rrwt.org/
Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
Simey might be on Vermouth propogated Gin this arvo ?
From now (and since the last big system) to the 10-15th of August.
Whatever comes on the 12th to me will be the “wake-up call”, and therefore could be big (COL potentially as @Kletterer points out.
As I have pointed out in my blog, there is a cycle of driver changes in the SHEM circulation that will lead to a -AAO in the second half of August. These are all changes of momentum that are crucial to being able to detect pattern changes this far out. There is so much beyond just the indicator of AAO itself.
Booo...... going home on 11th.....bumpy flight maybe
In all seriousness, there is broad wider ensemble support for it, beyond single member progs.
Just to elaborate on that cycle of driver changes, watch the development of the planetary wave, as momentum is ploughed into the Andes (black line) and comes out westward of the mountain range. This is what we call mountain torque.
Now to watch the stratospheric influences of the positive Andes Mountain Torque.
Now we just rely on stratospheric-tropospheric interaction, which I touch on briefly in the blog. We should see propagation because of a more solid upper-mid strat disturbance. Which works better with the flow of the current relationship of the strat-tropo, compared to the disturbance associated with the -AAO earlier in the month.
Delineation like a washing machine!
So the Andes is the main driver of the AAO cycling from + to - ?
Are there any other major drivers of the AAO cycle?
There’s others, I am just highlighting the Andes as a key driver of the stratosphere, and if we have connection between the strat and tropo, therefore the AAO.
ENSO, MJO, Antarctic sea ice extent (early in the season), snow in Antarctica in autumn, etc all play roles.
And from a stratospheric perspective, you have the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the QBO, etc.
Some warming evident SW of Africa (23rd) there (no, I know not an SSW event).
Perhaps that's influencing the forecasted dip in NOAA ensemble forecasts in the next few days.
Yep, that’s what I am talking about.
Momentum pushing +MT induced stratospheric weakness from the Andes, towards Africa (on the 23rd).
I think we will see tropospheric implications a bit further down the line.
Drought? What drought?
Apparently they have just opened for the 2019/2020 season at Sass Fee. The panorama cameras on this site are nice views and camera resolution.
Elevated Fire Weather warning.... in the middle of winter:
No surprise, some areas had well below average rainfall for last 3 years. There were bushfires near Cape Conran August last year.
Sadly the new normal ...
+ve Indian Ocean Dipole doing its thing....
Nice looking system that on the ens first week1 next month.
Been a few ul troughs lately over the IDO likely reason for cool anoms on plots.
Wont be suprised to see swing again.
Big LWT signal aligns and says G’day to that @Jwintermix
I'm planning to drive the Omeo Hwy through Swifts Creek/Omeo and then northwards through Anglers Rest etc to Tallangatta. What are the chances of the road being blocked off by snow?
EC Control - Perturbed 50 hasnt let go of 11-12 th . Its quite a wide spread though.
Will be driving up that way tomorrow morning.