Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. This is what i like to see in the indo a big fat inflated high.
    Forcing on the lower belt.
    download (8).png


     
    nfip, Every2years, DiscoStuAU and 4 others like this.
  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yesterdays ERA Interim. August 8th - 13th has been getting a bit of attention lately.
     
  3. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    That seems rather logical progression wise.
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Yeah i agree. Eddy missbehaves sometimes though.
     
  5. Jacko4650

    Jacko4650 One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

    Joined:
    May 15, 2014
    Messages:
    1,768
    Likes Received:
    2,780
    Fello camper talked about some sort of eclipse - I just assumed he had experienced a normal high altitude "dream". Appears I was a complete numnut!
     
    Xwing likes this.
  6. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    This period is looking quite strong in recent days. Keep the eyes peeled (2-5 Aug), IMO.
    I am seeing a cut-off low in recent runs.
     
  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.

    GEPS and EPS playing ball for something on the 2/3rd of August.
     
  8. Monawau

    Monawau First Runs

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2019
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    6
    First timer here - fingers crossed for 2-6 August as I'm heading down then!
     
  9. Ret-ro

    Ret-ro One of Us

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2017
    Messages:
    856
    Likes Received:
    663
    You will be ok, we are there.. Always snows when I come.
     
    Jacko4650 and Monawau like this.
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/07/20th-july-australia-on-long-term.html
    My long range snow outlook for snowfall in Australia

    Looking at systems around:
    - 27-29 July
    - 1-5 August
    - 9-14 August
    - 19-23 August

    I am also looking at a poor late July and early August (per the well-discussed +AAO), but also improving snowfall chances in mid-late August. Seems distant, but the season always comes around fast. A few top-ups here and there until then IMO.
     
    SMSkier, JG, AJS and 7 others like this.
  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    3,061
    Location:
    Gerroa
    BTW - it’s 50 years since my avatar pix was snapped at a cost of some 100 billion dollars.

    fyi: wikipedia has an excellent archive version in full size here
     
    SMSkier, robbo mcs, Kletterer and 3 others like this.
  12. Snow Blowey

    Snow Blowey Old n' Crusty Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2004
    Messages:
    22,121
    Likes Received:
    14,597
    Location:
    Dubbo NSW
    Isn't it fake. Malcom Roberts says it is and Malcom would know.
     
    J_busworth, rocketboy and Alfred14 like this.
  13. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,976
    Likes Received:
    8,776
    Location:
    melbourne
    Im off to queenstown in a few weeks....lookin a bit thin over there.....can anyone give me some hope?
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Maybe something Tuesday week, other than that not much.
     
  15. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Circa 12th Aug. could be a goer imo.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  16. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Could be big. My eyes are firmly upon it, will be a little while until we see some modelling though.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Some EC Ensemble members are very excited about it. I detect a slight whiff of COL on this one for some reason.
     
  18. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    3,061
    Location:
    Gerroa
    with neither MJO or AAO action anywhere on the horizon - August could be slim pickings. A repeat of June?
     
  19. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    3,061
    Location:
    Gerroa
  20. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    rocketboy likes this.
  21. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    If you run through all 50 Ensemble members there is a dominant feature on this one- its one to watch.
     
  22. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    RRWT 'aint far away in that period.
    Such a cluster fart of variables beyond the support of MJO & AAO drivers. \

    To suggest it'll be a ghost town in the SE, void of snow-bearing systems in our region is to ignore the fact it's 'mid-winter' for us.
     
  23. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Take this Member # 39 plot with a grain of salt. Its bare bones biased data output at this stage but wouldnt that be lovely ?
     
  24. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    3,061
    Location:
    Gerroa
  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    rocketboy likes this.
  26. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    rocketboy likes this.
  27. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Simey might be on Vermouth propogated Gin this arvo ?
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    From now (and since the last big system) to the 10-15th of August.
    Whatever comes on the 12th to me will be the “wake-up call”, and therefore could be big (COL potentially as @Kletterer points out.

    As I have pointed out in my blog, there is a cycle of driver changes in the SHEM circulation that will lead to a -AAO in the second half of August. These are all changes of momentum that are crucial to being able to detect pattern changes this far out. There is so much beyond just the indicator of AAO itself.
     
    nfip, Kletterer and rocketboy like this.
  29. mr

    mr Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2003
    Messages:
    16,976
    Likes Received:
    8,776
    Location:
    melbourne
    Booo......:) going home on 11th.....bumpy flight maybe
     
  30. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.


    In all seriousness, there is broad wider ensemble support for it, beyond single member progs.
     
  31. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Just to elaborate on that cycle of driver changes, watch the development of the planetary wave, as momentum is ploughed into the Andes (black line) and comes out westward of the mountain range. This is what we call mountain torque.



    Now to watch the stratospheric influences of the positive Andes Mountain Torque.


    Now we just rely on stratospheric-tropospheric interaction, which I touch on briefly in the blog. We should see propagation because of a more solid upper-mid strat disturbance. Which works better with the flow of the current relationship of the strat-tropo, compared to the disturbance associated with the -AAO earlier in the month.
     
    Majikthise, DiscoStuAU and Kletterer like this.
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Delineation like a washing machine!
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  33. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,527
    Likes Received:
    3,061
    Location:
    Gerroa
    So the Andes is the main driver of the AAO cycling from + to - ?

    Are there any other major drivers of the AAO cycle?
     
  34. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    There’s others, I am just highlighting the Andes as a key driver of the stratosphere, and if we have connection between the strat and tropo, therefore the AAO.

    ENSO, MJO, Antarctic sea ice extent (early in the season), snow in Antarctica in autumn, etc all play roles.
    And from a stratospheric perspective, you have the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the QBO, etc.
     
  35. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Some warming evident SW of Africa (23rd) there (no, I know not an SSW event).
    Perhaps that's influencing the forecasted dip in NOAA ensemble forecasts in the next few days.
     
    Jellybeans likes this.
  36. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2015
    Messages:
    8,734
    Likes Received:
    10,700
    Location:
    Box Hill, Vic.
    Yep, that’s what I am talking about.
    Momentum pushing +MT induced stratospheric weakness from the Andes, towards Africa (on the 23rd).

    I think we will see tropospheric implications a bit further down the line.
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  37. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Drought? What drought?
     
    Kletterer likes this.
  38. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2016
    Messages:
    931
    Likes Received:
    1,277
    skiflat likes this.
  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
  40. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,558
    Likes Received:
    3,715
    Location:
    Melbourne City, VIC
    Elevated Fire Weather warning.... in the middle of winter:

     
    crikey likes this.
  41. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Addicted

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2018
    Messages:
    149
    Likes Received:
    175
    Location:
    TAMBO UPPER
    No surprise, some areas had well below average rainfall for last 3 years. There were bushfires near Cape Conran August last year.
     
  42. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 1970
    Messages:
    30,390
    Likes Received:
    13,927
    Location:
    Blue Mts
    Sadly the new normal ...
     
  43. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2008
    Messages:
    1,971
    Likes Received:
    997
    +ve Indian Ocean Dipole doing its thing....
     
  44. Nice looking system that on the ens first week1 next month.
    ecmwf-aus-mslp_anom-5114400.png




     
    DiscoStuAU, POW_hungry and Kletterer like this.
  45. Been a few ul troughs lately over the IDO likely reason for cool anoms on plots.
    Wont be suprised to see swing again.
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    May 28, 2000
    Messages:
    18,243
    Likes Received:
    22,545
    Location:
    Eastern Burbs of Sydney
    Big LWT signal aligns and says G’day to that @Jwintermix
     
    User has resigned likes this.
  47. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    350
    Likes Received:
    636
    Location:
    Wollongong, NSW
    I'm planning to drive the Omeo Hwy through Swifts Creek/Omeo and then northwards through Anglers Rest etc to Tallangatta. What are the chances of the road being blocked off by snow?
     
  48. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    EC Control - Perturbed 50 hasnt let go of 11-12 th . Its quite a wide spread though.
     
  49. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2014
    Messages:
    17,043
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Location:
    Canberra
    Tonight ?
     
  50. Wavey

    Wavey One of Us

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2019
    Messages:
    350
    Likes Received:
    636
    Location:
    Wollongong, NSW
    Will be driving up that way tomorrow morning.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.