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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
Share your knowledge
Okay, How about arriving Saturday (10th) night for skiing Sunday to Tuesday? I imagine things will be a little snowed in on Sunday then would it be all okay for skiing after that? This would be at Selwyn. I'd wait until the weekend of the 17th but I have family from NZ coming the next weekend (who don't ski).
Wouldn't be too much fun if all the lifts were on wind hold though.
Skiing in cold windy conditions doesn't really appeal to me, would be great skiing after this big system passes through but. Can't beat a brilliant blue sky day for skiing but that's just me
That's when you go for a hike. Nothing better than the white room.
I am going up to XC ski from DP to Hot Ham and camp out in the JB Plain area on the Monday after this front is predicted to appear. Timing is everything !
Will there be huge sea faring mammals heading towards Australia with ski poles under their guiding fins too ?
I'm also considering (as I'm sure thousands of others are too!) a cheeky long weekend away next weekend, but the roads are going to be absolute bedlam if it's snowing down too 400m
Its going to rain at 398m, stay home
Yes it’s time , for him to say , sorry no snow
I’m worried, no decent storm passes by without mick chopps input.... where is the great man?
Living it up on a south pacific island.
Look at the automated modelling here for Hot Ham. The overnight temperatures look like a meat freezer!. The total snowfalls predicted for next weekend are almost fantasy stuff ;-P .
I'll be there a week early? (arriving Thredbo 5th, leaving afternoon of 11th). Please tell me I'll get some love during the week!
Watching the ashes no doubt
just a bit I haven't seen before but knew of the snow
Snow bowl - Herouni Antenna former Soviet Union (Armenia)
Genuine question: What is everybody’s thoughts on the grasshopper, the frog, and Jane?
Sometimes I see mixed emotions about this and am just curious to know why.
Have a look here
The Denman is pretty loose
There's indications that the next potential system (due through the SE 16th/17th) may peak early through the West of the continent (13th/14th) and fizzle through the East IMO.
I am not convinced the 17th-21st date range holds much for us yet. The Long Wave Trough looks to fade through the Eastern IO, IMO.
Early indicators suggest, there's a signal there, but it's indicative of a 'warmer' system (West Oz dregs) than the batter at the plate next week, so to speak.
Our season helper; AAO looks to be reverting to neutral ground by then also.
I’m looking towards an early peak fading as you mention and clearing the way for some lows to push through under a weak high.
wait and see
Yeah It’s not very hopeful for just the 16th, but the days after may have something in there. But probably not to the magnitude of the system ahead of us on the 10th.
Next decent r/w cold anom. I'm thinking last week in this month Anom sigma likely strong. Will be keeping a eye on the IO around 20ish for the anom TBA.
17th continues to look like an early peaker, yet.
Peaks over SW WA 15/16th, then is ridged swiftly towards Tas (SE'ly traject).
@Jellybeans -- AAO question on the charts
- what is the difference between the four charts shown in this graphic. - the lower panel seems closer to what you would expect the slope to actually be - based on previous plots. The forecast plunge seems to be very steep and outside of recent norms and would tend to a smoothing to bottom out at around -2 and not -4 and off the charts as shown a few days ago.
Bottom chart plots the LR forecast, i.e. prog as of 14 days ago - lower accuracy/skill, but still outlines the LR trend.
Conversely the top chart is the SR ensembles plot.
Hopefully another dip early September for my week at Falls
Welcome to negative territory.
Whilst the ensemble forecast looks wildly uncertain for mid to late August.
GFS going for a follow up system on the 13/14th, on 18z this morning.
Bit rogue as no other model agrees with it.
Looks to be a slight uptick again in downward noise in that ensemble. Maybe we will get that hard dip yet - like recent forecasts had suggested.
Still there (14/15th) on GFS this arvo. As before; it needs model support though:
Could this week just be the beginning?
It's trying to distinguish the tight ensemble members in the first week and the loose ensemble members in the second week, so the model is trying to compensate for the ensemble trend.
Maybe, but GFS is well known for pulling stunts like this. Watch the ensemble IMO.
Probably also needs the big one next week to pass throigh.
What's it looking like on EC for next week? GFS 00Z is hard to believe for 15th/16th.
Staying in Thredbo village for the week for the first time in about ten years so we may have fluked a good one.
EC suggests it's looking quite ridge dominant through the SE early next week.
There's vague indicators of a clipper/tail end system on Monday AM, but it looks more like a ridge out IMO.
Otherwise, could be week of the season - not surprising given it's mid-August by then.
I've been down for the peak snow depth 2 years in a row, 225cm on 22/08/18 and 241cm on 20/09/17. Hoping to make it three this year. Back down from the 16th to the 25th of August so this next storm looks good for a base builder. Cant afford any September trips so some top ups would be nice, GFS looks good atm.
Said the blind man.
GFS is on a long weekend bender. Off chops.
What do you think the likelihood is of needing chains/4wd to get to/from Jindy and the skitube on Friday and Saturday?
Penderlea chain bay (before SkiTube) should get a workout, it gets quite high up and a bit slippery up over the pass there.
I'm trying to find excuses not to go back to Canberra on Saturday, my only hope is if it rains all day Thursday/Friday in Canberra and they close all the playing fields for the weekend. Otherwise it's nights skiing on Saturday night. Brrrr.
It is looking wet later in the week, you might get your wish. Though it doesn’t seem to rain much in Canberra, this year at least.
If this system plays out the way the modelling is looking , it will be bedlam on the roads. Wheel Chains and snow shovels will not be optional. If you can tie some fluoro coloured flagging tape to the top of your car radio aerial then that might help you locate your buried car and dig out the right vehicle after skiing all day ;-P .
Anybody heading for Hot Ham should come in from Omeo.
AAO holding it’s sub zero line in latest run.
I second that but on 3 occasions,once just south of Bredbo