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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    A real interesting note on the GFS AAO projections tonight:


    A mass weakening of the AAO in the stratosphere (weakening of the SPV).
    You’d expect a -AAO to start propagating down in the first days of September, if it holds.
     
    balmz, SMSkier, rocketboy and 4 others like this.
  2. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I’d say something positive and optimistic but wow, it might be better to just let this one keep brewing later next week. But yer ‘Storm Wow’ come on down and fill the bucket.
     
  3. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    This cross over trough anom in the IO will come too fruition over the se in the last week of the month thinks global models.

    EPS
    2019-08-13 11_04_30-ECMWF WMO ENS_ WeatherBell Maps.png



    GFS ENS


    2019-08-13 11_01_12-GEPS ENS_ WeatherBell Maps.png
     
  4. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yep definitely interested in something around from about the 26th to the 30th of August, with LWT aligning.
     
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  5. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    Yeah it looks a decent polar -4 anom. Climate forecast system modeling has it on their plot now in the IO @ 20.
    cfs_500hgt_avg_t10_f2.gif
     
  6. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    download (9).png Don't look too good this plot heading the wrong way if it verifies.
    the system may just scrap in.
     
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  7. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s not great, but I think it will be back in the first days of Sept.
     
  8. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    GFS Yeah they are not always accurate just a guide i treat em like mjo
    plots wait and see if they are verifying.
     
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  9. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heading for a resurface.
    [​IMG]
     
  10. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Bummer...
     
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  11. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    How does this tie in with Jelly's recent observations on the behaviour of AAO disrupters.

    It was pretty amazing how on the money Jelly was with those early observations. It was a "season wrapper" on the hard positive AAO forecast - only for it to collapse away and give us season starter number 3.
     
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  12. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Yep shes going up

    Hopefully for 2 weeks then down for September please
     
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  13. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Hopefully back down before September as I’m at Perisher for a week from the 31st of this month
     
  14. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    It fits the timeline for the AAO. We see a peak in a +AAO in the latter stages of this month. And then in the first days of September we see a dip in the -AAO.


    EPS Control shows a more intense stratospheric disturbance in the last days of the month.

    Same story on GEFS.

    Expect a -AAO dip in the first days of September for a week or so at least IMO.
    Expect a decent stratospheric event, we need a few more days to assess whether it is strong from a SSW level.
     
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  15. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EDIT: Argh yea, just saw @Jellybeans reply ^^, yep there you go...
    Significant Strat/PV disturbances initiated it. Ensembles nailed it.
    It's been in flux since the start of July.
    August appears nil different. Strat thread in general weather is a good start in understanding it.
     
  16. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    TBH, this year’s disturbances have been strong anoms, in pulsing/cyclical rhythm.

    Haven’t seen it so prominent in the South Polar strat before.
     
  17. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Vibe for another decent to big early spring event you reckon given jelly’s suggestion of another anom in early September?
     
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  18. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    If I am to be honest, I worry about the system next week as it’s going against the AAO tide, so to speak. If downgrades are on the cards they’ll come in the next day or two as ensembles prog the +’ve territory of SAM. @Jwintermix put it well; it may just scrape through in time.

    That said, yep I am inclined to agree with @Jellybeans for the start of SEP, as the strat disturbances have been on a prominent cycle and has been progged on ensembles for a while now.

    RE: Spring… A –‘ve SAM scenario in SEP may run into issues if we have any onset of Monsoonal influence as that’ll put rain in the mix. +'ve IOD will also be less relevant as the Monsoon kicks into gear.
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah I think the 26-30th longwave looks like it's weakening as it passed our region. Sign of the +AAO times. By then, we will have 200-250cm SC depth and we will have heaps to play with.

    Given the cold SSTs around North Australia (like a Nino, but not exactly like a canonical type), I don't think the monsoon onset will affect a -AAO event in the first two weeks into Seprember. Bureau is forecasting a late monsoon onset.

    First (and maybe second) week of September looks like the last possible period for a "big" snow-bearing system IMO.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    One hint of the Westerly trade wind component in the IO will flick the switch on our season, IMO.
    I am with you, I hope it's late Sep at the earliest.
     
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  21. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just on this, I am still resigned to a later influence of this LWT to the SE IMO.
    Still 8-days off the SE in the below prog. So 30AUG-3SEP is the sweet spot IMO.
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Perhaps. Regardless it’s weakening (and hence probably the reason why it’s slowing). I’d prefer it to be 5 days later from the 29th-30th.

    It all depends on the AAO timing, and the strength of the long wave.
     
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  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The sat/infrared is pretty special.
    Mesmerizing, even.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC Ensembles goes even harder on the strat warming and PV shift, on the 00z run.
    I haven't paid a lot of attention in the last few days, but this prog (alone) is the strongest this season.
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Now we are talking 2002. We are talking a real SSW there, that's some real serious imagery, and catching up to GFS that has been following this for a few days now.

    This could have really big implications for our weather IMO.
     
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  26. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  27. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Try 5-15 September.
     
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  28. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterdays ERA 5 run was a bit stubborn with blocking and lame Zonals tbh.
     
  29. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    An SSW would help move things about.
     
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  30. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    It certainly looks to propagate quick enough for an SSW event.
    The clear progs from both EC and GFS say to me that AAO indices will drop like a lead balloon.
     
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  31. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    What are the likely implications for us if a SSW comes off?
     
  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    What magnitude would be enough to stir thing up do you think ?
     
  33. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Strong (est) -ive AAO/SAM event, increased polar outbreak in SH region, High amplitude LWT, broad temp anoms.
    Possibly enough for a polar V split.
     
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  34. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Put it this way, the previous disturbance (late July/early Aug) was not even half of what that prog is.
     
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  35. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    i must admit that10 hPa plot is damn well impressive. Its a trampoline with eddie mc flux on it
     
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  36. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Wow...
     
  37. Big_Red_60

    Big_Red_60 Addicted

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    When was the last SSW? Seen something saying June 2013, does that sound right?
     
  38. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    The largest significant SSW event for SH was 2002.
     
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  39. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    No major snow from that event?
     
  40. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    My apologies that was the last polar Vortex split. There’s been various degrees of SSW events over the years but i’d have to check if the split was SSW induced.
    @Jellybeans May know.
     
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  41. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes, PV split was Induced by SSW event (SEP 2002).
     
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  42. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes the split is part of the SSW event itself, rather than a seperate event.
    More specifically a split is a type of SSW.
    The other type is a PV displacement event which is what both EPS and GEFS model for this period. Instead of it driving the vortex to split, it pushes it out and weakens it.

    It depends really, I can check SC depth tomorrow, but depending on the timing within September, it may or may not have had a larger effect. The earlier, the better, as the SH circulation moves south. This event is reasonably well timed within the season.
    It depends what you call a SSW. I had an argument with someone about it a month back. You could call this August's events a (minor) SSW per a research paper. The last major one as stated by @POW_hungry, was in 2002.
    This will be massive if it comes off. Stirring things up would be putting it lightly.

    It could be the best thing that has ever happened to the Australian Alps
    OR
    It could become complex and become weird from a tropospheric perspective.
    OR
    They could fade or weaken.

    Early signs are pointing closer to the first option.
    We live in hope.
     
  43. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Cheers mate
     
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  44. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interestingly, the timing of 2002 split comes within days of what has been put on the table by GFS and EC tonight.
    Similarities are uncanny.
     
  45. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    2002 not very exciting
     
  46. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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    8 of 11 members seeing the dip and the warming event straight up today. With one member wearing concrete boots... way down.
     
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  47. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a dream Ski Pass: Gold

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    And it’s a displacement too at least at that height.
    Looks nearly like a carbon copy.
     
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  48. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Ski Pass: Gold

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  49. Jwintermix

    Jwintermix One of Us

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    September usually see's 1-2 cutoff lows traverse the tasman way. If your lucky one gets over SA/VIC or pass's close too tassie.
     
    #4849 Jwintermix, Aug 15, 2019 at 12:46 PM
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2019 at 6:10 PM
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  50. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Early Days

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    Hope for the end of the month/early Sep...
     
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