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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Majikthise

    Majikthise Sage Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Other than 1.5m at end of sept.
     
  2. Water fall like effect freezing cold air (brown) subsidence filters down into troposphere.
    index.png
     
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  3. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC has backed off the strat impact a bit today but GFS ensembles goes hard.
    Still looking significant
     
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  4. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Why doesn’t it show on this graph
     
  5. Karicta

    Karicta A Local Ski Pass: Gold

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    It dropped below 1.5m in the week commencing 19 September.
     
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  6. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Wow. Thanks
     
  7. rocketboy

    rocketboy One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Heading south from Nowra about 11am.

     
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  8. SnowBound

    SnowBound One of Us

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    Well that's a happy looking face
     
  9. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Looks a little more deranged than happy I'd say... (Flip the image)

     
  10. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ERA Interim showing a bit of interest in Sept 11 on todays run.
     
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  11. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Just arrived in Perth. Pouring rain like Perth only does and actually quite cold. Wishing I had a 3rd layer.
     
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  12. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Wont snow then

    I'm at Falls :rolleyes:
     
  13. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Thought this was pretty cool:

     
  14. Xwing

    Xwing One of Us

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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    I see a little top-up on the 25th-27th:


    EC Determ:
     
  16. looking well into + thinks ens too kick off september. Hello spring right there.
    download.png
     
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  17. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  18. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Jeezus those -AAO anomalies in the upper stratosphere are deep as.
    Now we just need it to propagate down to the troposphere.
     
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  20. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC ensembles throwing up a good sized anom, first few days of September.
     
  21. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    Could be a September to Remember if that happens... And perhaps sustained by another plunge in the AAO?
     
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  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    But the LWT for that period has weakened beyond recognition in the latest GFS model prog. Not saying it can’t happen, but if it does it probably will be more like the 25-26th system IMO.

    I’m thinking a few days later.
     
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  23. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah the AAO should plunge in the first 5-10 days of September. So I’d expect the best period to be 8-14th of September, noting LWT alignment.
     
  24. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    That's GFS.
    EC LWT has other ideas.
     
  25. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah fair enough, there is some support on EPS for something around 2nd-4th. Still not sure about it's degree of strength.
    -AAO support would probably back something around the 9th to 14th.
     
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  26. Dynamic models v climatology models, dynamic for me.
     
  27. Noise smoothed out looks blocking.
    download (3).png
     
  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    What does 500hPa heights look like?
     
  29. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    Well I've got no idea how it plays out but will be hoping for top ups to maintain the cover near peak levels till this possibly -AAO and LWT alignment in second week of September.

    So often the problem at this time of year is the thaw kicks in and mid September dumps do little to stop it. September dumps are more about freshies for those lucky enough to have the chance to ski it. Can't complain though if this week is the peak, its turned into a much better season than I expected!
     
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  31. -15 (558)
     
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  32. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Weddel Sea Weddel Sea gradual seasonal departure from Anomolies on ERA 5. Cant get Gif to download but its evident. Spring is on its way.
     
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  33. Still as seen many times a rogue cold system can pop up until december.
     
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  34. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    For anyone interested - I put into a spreadsheet all recorded peak snow depths at each snowy hydro site since records began and threw in a trend line for good measure.

    Why? Someone argued with me that snowfalls have been increasing year on year for the last decade and I didn't think that was correct. Anyways the data is there for all to see, I just took the time to throw it together. Will update for 2019 and keep this going yearly.

     
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  35. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    I think you've put in the wrong Three Mile Dam plot.

    I'd suggest ten years is not a very long time span to be identifying trends over - short term climate fluctuations would be enough to hopelessly bias the result.

    As an example if you did the same things for the 90s you'd get a mighty fast decline in snowpack that would not be a very good representation of the reality since and that could lead to one reading all kinds of rapidly approaching catastrophic global warming scenarios into the equation. The reality would be that Pinatubo probably in combination with one or two other factors like a strong la nina in 1990 (from memory) was the actual cause of the trend by providing a very large positive anomaly in the first three years of data.
     
  36. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    It's data all taken from the snowy hydro website, you can check it for yourself if you don't trust or believe what I have posted. edit: the data for 3 mile dam somehow overlapped with Deep Creek... will update

    The general point to this data is simple: the trend is down. I'm not here to argue the why or how, simply showing the data. People can do with it what they please...
     
  37. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Interesting. Could be a variance in heights due to mean wind direction. Would be interesting to see a bias correction methodology applied.
     
  38. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yes there could be any number of factors impacting the data, if I had the knowhow and time I'd add more analysis to it. But sadly I do not, perhaps someone else can pick up where I left off

    3 things struck me when looking at all of the data:
    • Major dumps of snow took some years from terrible to great;
    • The seasons appear to be delayed further and further into August and September with a steep falloff
    • The lower altitude 3 Mile Dam trend line is significantly steeper than higher elevations. Indicating a retreating snowline.
    All in all it was an interesting exercise
     
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  39. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Great work Stu.
     
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  40. eps_z500_5400_globe_144 (2).png
     
  41. 2019-08-19 23_12_39-eps_z500_5400_globe_360 (3) - Windows Photo Viewer.png eps_z500_5400_globe_360 (3).png
     
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  42. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Just seeking clarification re the Three Mile Dam trend being steeper. Is the cm/yr number bigger, or are you saying this on the basis of the visual slope on the graphs? Latter not such a good approach due to different vertical scales on the three graphs.
     
  43. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    The low peak CM anomalies - much greater in the last 2 decades than those proceeding it
     
  44. teleroo

    teleroo One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Eh? No comprende. Are you saying the negative residuals from the trend are bigger in magnitude closer to the present? Maybe. But still seeking clarification about the linear trend slopes.
     
  45. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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  46. BlueHue

    BlueHue One of Us

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    The wattles are out, the sky is blue and the wind is from the west - typical August scene down the coast when the snow is on!
     
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  47. iagreewithhim

    iagreewithhim One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    The trend line for Three Mile Dam has gone from about 63cm to 35cm - a 45% decrease over 63 years. Compared to Deep Creek (125cm to 95cm - 24% decrease over 61 years) and Spencers Creek (220cm to 175cm - 21% decrease over 64 years). That is a pretty substantial difference.
     
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  48. GFS the only model that goes against its own ens mean runs.
    download (12).png download (14).png Thats a corker.
     
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  49. The cmc thinks there is a good cold snow system passing the alps @29, then ridge builds in with mild dry days too follow.Too the west behind the ridge is warm tropical moisture thinks cmc. (LR)

    download (3).png download (4).png