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Winter's Snowed-In BBQ Forum

Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.

  1. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS Control has got something.

    I am thinking more 8-14th Sept at this point though as a last hoot.
     
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  2. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    8- 14 was hinted at a while back on ERA 5. Will look see if there is something on Todays run.
     
  3. Not for me @3 atm ridge.
    download (21).png
     
  4. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Also something there 14th - 17th.
     
  5. AAO and LW tools will likely be the decider here. @POW_hungry
     
  6. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    The potential for a deep -AAO event is there, with a sharp drop in zonal winds in the stratosphere.

    We just need to see that drop into the troposphere.
    The strong stratospheric event is there.
    We just need solid strat-tropo feedback.
     
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  7. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Control....

     
  8. Quote

    One of the advantages that one should expect from using ensemble-based products, in particular the ensemble mean, instead of a single forecast defined by the control member, is a better consistency between consecutive forecasts valid for the same verification time, because of the filtering effect of ensemble averaging. For example, ensemble-mean forecasts should be more consistent

    12z 36hr
    eps_z500_5400_globe_36.png
    Looking good for NZ with the trough.

    Sept (extreme range)
    eps_z500_5400_globe_360.png
    The mean of members screams low% for a 540 dam trough sweep. ATM
     
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  9. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    How quick will we see a response?
     
  10. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    That is the response.
    Will be able to make it for the 2-5 Sept period. The LWT isn’t looking great though, weak...
    Models are a bit all over the shop, but there is some general support from the deterministics.
    I assume the ensemble means haven’t warmed up to the prospects.
     
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  11. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Precisely why the E-Control has a signal.
    #unadulterated
     
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  12. Brakes on here for me i'm not buying into that bullish forecast atm.But do hope it.verifys.
     
  13. GFS ens mean.
    gefs_aao_2019082100.png Also
     
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  14. If they verify,and with lag maybe a few weeks md sept be my (guess)
     
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  15. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah in a few days give or take, EC will push back into the first week of September for -AAO drop.
    2-5 Sept will be pushed under the covers.
    And 10-15th Sept will be the big chance IMO.
     
  16. phillthy

    phillthy First Runs

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    Is anyone willing to shed a bit of light on what’s going on weather wise for next weekend ? (Aug 30th - 2nd Sep)
    I have accommodation booked in Thredbo and it’s not looking very pretty at the moment on snow-forecast. Hoping this isn’t set in stone and changes dramatically!
     
  17. Claude Cat

    Claude Cat On my bike Moderator Ski Pass: Platinum

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  18. Hermon

    Hermon One of Us

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    August 28-30 seems to have potential according to 00Z GFS run today. A rather weird positioning of the High over Tassie, but it could throw up some surprises from the South. One to watch.
     
  19. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EC and CMC are into it too.
    I’m interested. New thread posted.
     
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  20. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Could it keep going down...
     
  21. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Next few weeks look rubbish
     
  22. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    EPS and GEPS are interested in the 3-6 September period.
     
  23. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah, to hell with 2.1m of base in Aus!
     
  24. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Spring is on it's way.
     
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  25. POW_hungry

    POW_hungry Part of the Furniture Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    So is my annual leave for the corn harvest.
    **rubs hands together**
     
  26. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    No where near that in VIC
     
  27. newman

    newman Addicted

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    Hey legends, Can anyone tell me in weather dummy language what the vibe is for second/third week of Sept?
     
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  28. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Good. Increased chance of more snowfall at this point.
     
  29. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  30. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Haha same... gotta prioritise these things
     
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  31. The Baron

    The Baron Hard Yards

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  32. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Alfred14 and The Baron like this.
  33. mick chopps

    mick chopps Pool Room Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yeah just ~1.5m.... terrible.
     
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  34. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Total rubbish
    85 cms average at Buller
    Less than 1.3m at Falls

    The good runs at Falls start to close around now

    But of course you are the expert......
     
  35. Snowmaker7

    Snowmaker7 One of Us

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    You're quite the glass half empty kinda person aren't you

    The early August dump was one of the best since the turn of the century in terms of snow quantity and quality thats for sure! I don't think we can complain much about how this season has panned out for any resort
     
  36. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    Just stating facts. Nothing more. Nothing less
     
  37. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    It’s not as great as last year.
    But it ain’t rubbish.
    We can’t use last year as our only standard.
     
  38. skiflat

    skiflat Old n' Crusty

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    No its great overall, moreso in NSW... but the next 2 weeks look MEH
     
  39. Jellybeans

    Jellybeans Walking on a cloud Ski Pass: Gold

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    Well you don’t normally see much snowfall after the last week of August typically. Start of September is usually the peak of the season. So it’s not uncalled for. But I think things will shake up in Mid-September.
     
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  40. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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    Yesterdays ERA Interim run shows a bit more activity that Tuesdays run.
     
  41. Infinity Dawn

    Infinity Dawn One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  42. DiscoStuAU

    DiscoStuAU One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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  43. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Anyone still seeing something for the 4th?
     
  44. PMG

    PMG One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Salt with your chips?
     
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  45. Kletterer

    Kletterer Thredbo Doughnut Tragic Moderator Ski Pass: Gold

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  46. jonathanc

    jonathanc One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    What model is that from?
     
  47. melty68

    melty68 One of Us

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    Close to snow in the North island of New Zealand ..even the dog refuses to go outside.....she has been watching the Ashes all night.
     
  48. AussieWhite

    AussieWhite Hard Yards

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    Going down...
     
  49. GFS
     
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