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Discussion in 'Alpine & Southern' started by POW_hungry, May 31, 2017.
EPS Control has got something.
I am thinking more 8-14th Sept at this point though as a last hoot.
8- 14 was hinted at a while back on ERA 5. Will look see if there is something on Todays run.
Not for me @3 atm ridge.
Also something there 14th - 17th.
AAO and LW tools will likely be the decider here. @POW_hungry
The potential for a deep -AAO event is there, with a sharp drop in zonal winds in the stratosphere.
We just need to see that drop into the troposphere.
The strong stratospheric event is there.
We just need solid strat-tropo feedback.
One of the advantages that one should expect from using ensemble-based products, in particular the ensemble mean, instead of a single forecast defined by the control member, is a better consistency between consecutive forecasts valid for the same verification time, because of the filtering effect of ensemble averaging. For example, ensemble-mean forecasts should be more consistent
Looking good for NZ with the trough.
Sept (extreme range)
The mean of members screams low% for a 540 dam trough sweep. ATM
@Take a plunge
How quick will we see a response?
That is the response.
Will be able to make it for the 2-5 Sept period. The LWT isn’t looking great though, weak...
Models are a bit all over the shop, but there is some general support from the deterministics.
I assume the ensemble means haven’t warmed up to the prospects.
Precisely why the E-Control has a signal.
Brakes on here for me i'm not buying into that bullish forecast atm.But do hope it.verifys.
GFS ens mean.
If they verify,and with lag maybe a few weeks md sept be my (guess)
Yeah in a few days give or take, EC will push back into the first week of September for -AAO drop.
2-5 Sept will be pushed under the covers.
And 10-15th Sept will be the big chance IMO.
Is anyone willing to shed a bit of light on what’s going on weather wise for next weekend ? (Aug 30th - 2nd Sep)
I have accommodation booked in Thredbo and it’s not looking very pretty at the moment on snow-forecast. Hoping this isn’t set in stone and changes dramatically!
August 28-30 seems to have potential according to 00Z GFS run today. A rather weird positioning of the High over Tassie, but it could throw up some surprises from the South. One to watch.
EC and CMC are into it too.
I’m interested. New thread posted.
Could it keep going down...
Next few weeks look rubbish
EPS and GEPS are interested in the 3-6 September period.
Yeah, to hell with 2.1m of base in Aus!
Spring is on it's way.
So is my annual leave for the corn harvest.
**rubs hands together**
No where near that in VIC
Hey legends, Can anyone tell me in weather dummy language what the vibe is for second/third week of Sept?
Good. Increased chance of more snowfall at this point.
Haha same... gotta prioritise these things
Big ol thread here discussing it and other things:
Yeah just ~1.5m.... terrible.
85 cms average at Buller
Less than 1.3m at Falls
The good runs at Falls start to close around now
But of course you are the expert......
You're quite the glass half empty kinda person aren't you
The early August dump was one of the best since the turn of the century in terms of snow quantity and quality thats for sure! I don't think we can complain much about how this season has panned out for any resort
Just stating facts. Nothing more. Nothing less
It’s not as great as last year.
But it ain’t rubbish.
We can’t use last year as our only standard.
No its great overall, moreso in NSW... but the next 2 weeks look MEH
Well you don’t normally see much snowfall after the last week of August typically. Start of September is usually the peak of the season. So it’s not uncalled for. But I think things will shake up in Mid-September.
Yesterdays ERA Interim run shows a bit more activity that Tuesdays run.
Did anyone see this? Thoughts? Media probably just talking nonsense.
Anyone still seeing something for the 4th?
Salt with your chips?
What model is that from?
Close to snow in the North island of New Zealand ..even the dog refuses to go outside.....she has been watching the Ashes all night.