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Predictions XMAS Period Forecast NE NSW SE QLD 23-27 Dec 2019

Discussion in 'Systems & Severe' started by Paul Cirrus, Dec 19, 2019.

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  1. TweedStorm

    TweedStorm One of Us

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    Gotta learn to keep my trap shut, turning into a bit of a mishmash now but still plenty of lightning around. Happy for anything like everyone else
     
  2. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Looking promising to make it to Brisbane with some intensity.
     
  3. keepcalmbreathe

    keepcalmbreathe Early Days

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  4. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Doppler picking up some strong wind gusts behind the line. Multiple frames of 90 kph through the Kyogle area.
     
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  5. Batten down the hatches

    Batten down the hatches One of Us

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    Surely! Please don’t skip me mother nature please....

     
  6. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Geez it is difficult maintaining continuity between a prediction thread and obs thread. Anyway I have posted radar 1 hour intensity in the observation thread, but wish to say to moderators that I prefer one event thread!
     
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  7. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Why do we have 2 threads? It should be all in one -- an event thread.
     
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  8. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I like seeing that moojirah, or “Moogerah” in the Europeans literature is near the action at this time.
    That place has aboriginal meaning for “home of the thunderstorm”
    Ok and fair enough these storms originated further south than moojirah, but just saying an observation at this time.
     
  9. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    well, the "observation" thread should be now taking over from the "forecast"/ prediction thread. we're in the period for realtime obs and short term outlooks.

    i agree though.
    but lets use the other thread now.
     
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  10. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Nah. This thread has momentum. I’d prefer one thread keep going and clearly this thread has the activity.
     
  11. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    This is what I posted in the other inactive thread.
    1 hour radar accumulations
     
  12. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    yeah. 10X the views and replies.
    lets just use this one.

    hey @Flowin next time you post an image make sure the colours are further north please.

    :whistle:
     
  13. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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  14. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I can’t choose the BoM radar range, but you can also see 1 hour accumulations on Kanigan radar.
    I posted in the obs thread to continue here. Hope mods agree that is sensible.
     
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  15. Sandbank

    Sandbank One of Us

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  16. Timbuck

    Timbuck One of Us

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    Lovely run of the mill , ozzy storm here. Nice solid constant rain And stuff all wind , no CG’s have been seen it’s all in the clouds.
    Let’s hope everyone get a bit of the wet stuff.

    Interesting V notch signal??? Right over me. Highland park.
     

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  17. one drop

    one drop Addicted Ski Pass: Gold

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    hey just jokin'.
    all the rain cut off too far south so far.
    need some rain up here. the only moisture is in my bottle of wine.
    :)
     
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  18. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Water vapour sat image and lightning 1900 AEST
     
  19. StormDreaming

    StormDreaming Hard Yards

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    Pretty windy here in Forest Lake, lightning and rain just starting
     
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  20. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm not sure why it's so hard to differentiate between a prediction thread and an observations thread.
    All the current comments (observations) should be in that thread now.
    Any predictions on what might happen afterwards and tomorrow goes in the other thread.
    This is why all us dinosaurs got used to the useless old fashioned WZ.
    Ski.com is way ahead of what we had before.
    I'm so glad I'm now on a forum that is up to date and makes it so easy to post images and up to date charts.
    In hindsight, WZ deserved to die a quick death.
     
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  21. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Insane here at norwell . Nearly got struck by lightning . Had to throw the camera in the car and bail . No photos . Lightning non stop heading towards Brisbane
     
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  22. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I agree it is not hard to differentiate, but maintaining continuity of discussion not easy in short periods of change
     
  23. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    Geez mate, hope you are ok!!
    And in future, the observations thread would be better suited to this comment.
    I'm not sure a potential lightning strike of a forum member in the predictions thread would be well appreciated.
    We are all brothers/sisters and look after each other.
     
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  24. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Wow that came quick.
    Pelting down here at 1933 AEST
     
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  25. Delta-T

    Delta-T Addicted

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    Clowns to the south of me, jokers to the north, here I am, stuck in the middle with you, stuck in the middle with you...
     
  26. Gleno71

    Gleno71 One of Us

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    Cheers mate I completely forgot about the obs thread
     
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  27. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Sky is flashing away. Up to 27mm already. Lovely.
     
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  28. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I tend to agree, but that's because dumb arses keep posting in the wrong thread.
    A thread for current observations of a particular event I would have thought was pretty simple to understand.
     
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  29. Mezo

    Mezo One of Us

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    Here's an idea. Just have one thread for everything. I posted in here cause it's where all the activity is.
     
  30. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Grow up homer
    Some are not tec savvy like you. Give them a break
     
  31. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    I was hoping for a drop of either rain or Christmas cheers.
    Rain came tick
    Can’t lose now maybe lucky with Christmas cheers as well. :)
     
  32. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Enjoy weather and stiop being over critical
    I love this site. Good people good info until you come critising yep spelling not
    great
    Enjoy the weather guys
     
  33. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    Constant lightning to the south here at the moment.

    (posting here as well since we seem to be split between the obs/prediction thread)
     
  34. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    Plenty of noise and a nice light show here at Salisbury, nice bit of rain falling and not to bad wind wise...nothing over the top to write home about for us here which is nice on Xmas eve
     
  35. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I'm far from tech savvy. In fact, I'm hopeless at technology. It's just a matter of navigating around a forum, just like we had to do at WZ.
    This place is no different. It's actually very easy to navigate, and has so much more info than that old dinosaur at WZ.
     
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  36. 4107

    4107 One of Us

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    14.2mm so far here at Salisbury
     
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  37. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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  38. comet

    comet One of Us

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    Ah..TweedStorm - if we all kept our trap's shut we would not have a list at all, and look at all the fun we would miss out on :)
     
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  39. MegaMatch

    MegaMatch One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    I prefer using a single thread to discuss a single weather event myself.
     
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  40. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Quite strong lightning and intense rainfall starting at 7:49 pm with 12 mm in the last 5 minutes with maximum rain rate so far of 188.8 mm/hr.
     
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  41. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Here here
     
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  42. Homer

    Homer One of Us Ski Pass: Silver

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    But that didn't happen on WZ??
    Speak to Richard or one of the mods.
    At least you'll get a reply here.
     
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  43. Tsunami

    Tsunami One of Us

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    Just past cleveland
    Very good light show
    77mm/h rain rate
     
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  44. comet

    comet One of Us

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    Wow Gleno! Must have been bad for you to bail without a photo. Glad you are safe.
     
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  45. CirrusFibratus

    CirrusFibratus One of Us

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    First proper storm of the season here for us 7.4mm already and coming down in sheets still. This event is already a win for our location as far as I'm concerned.
     
  46. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Wowee that was a fun storm. Watching it come in there was constant CC lightning and massive CGs. Some were so bright they made me flinch even though they were very far away. There was a very well-defined frothy gust front which would have looked very photogenic if it had been an hour earlier. Once the storm hit there were some very powerful wind gusts, torrential rain, white-out conditions and lots of flangs. The sky is still constantly pulsing with lightning even now with the storm front over the bayside.

    I'm so glad we were capped earlier or we probably would have missed out on this. I was pretty impressed at the storm's trajectory - normally storms end up pushing over toward GC and the southern suburbs with a common weakening trend. This one actually intensified as it approached the populated regions (urban heat effect?) and has maintained its line very well.

    What a great way to start the event with potentially heavy falls to come and maybe further storms at the very end.
     
  47. Flowin

    Flowin One of Us Ski Pass: Gold

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    Back on predictions
    Access C 06z (1600 AEST) model run
    24 hr total precipitation 2200 AEST tonight to tomorrow.
     
  48. Falling_Droplet

    Falling_Droplet One of Us

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    Ended up with a total of 14.4 mm on the automatic gauge. There was a little wind at the start of the storm which didn't last too long. The lightening was quite intense especially at the start with some strikes feeling quite close. The power dropped briefly twice with that lightning.

    In the last few hours the temperature fell at a steady rate before falling quickly with the storm (from 25 C to 21 C presently). Dew point have been near average and stable at 18 C for the last dew hours while relative humidity rose slowly as normal before rising 5 minute before the storm when it was 62% to 78% currently. Winds have been light ENE to NNE, before switching S to SSW with the storm and steadily backing with and following the storm and is now currently E.
     
  49. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    Regarding the split threads, I'm not a fan and it isn't due to habit either. Keeping weather events in the same thread makes it less confusing for posting. For example this 'single event' actually has multiple phases in it. Are we supposed to bounce between predicting the next phase of the event and then posting in observations when it hits, and then back again? It's also easier for post-event browsing and quoting posts for post-event analysis.

    FYI, WZ never had this - they had a general event thread and a 'technical observations'. That was entirely different.
     
  50. Nature's Fury

    Nature's Fury One of Us

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    11,028 current power outages. I'm very surprised there aren't more with the strong winds and lightning.
     
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